关键词: 经济发展, 电力需求, 电力供应, 电力规划, 新能源消纳, 预测

Abstract: The features of China’s electricity demand and supply in 2016 are analyzed and the power supply and demand situation in the year of 2017 are forecasted in the paper, based on which some suggestions are proposed to guarantee the electric power supply. Affected by the steady growth of the real economy, the uncommon hot summer weather and the low electricity consumption base for the same period last year, the power consumption in 2016 was characterized by increased year-on-year growth rate, persistent continuous power transformation and persistent adjustment of consumption structure, and the utilization hours of thermal power generation units reached the lowest in 52 years in China. It is predicted that China’s national electricity demand will reach 6 213~6 273 TW·h in 2017 with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.0%~6.0%; the net installed generation capacity will increase by 120 million kilowatts with the total installed generation capacity reaching 1.77 billion kilowatts by the end of 2017; the utilization hours of the thermal power generation units will rise to about 4 200 hours; and the electric power demand and supply will be in balance in China as a whole except for some local areas where power supply is insufficient, sub-regionally, the North China is deficient slightly in power supply, the East China, Central China and the South China are basically in balance between power demand and supply, while the Northeast, Northwest and Southwest have some surplus in power supply.

Key words: economic development, electricity demand, electricity supply, power planning, new energy consumption, prediction