基于净负荷预测误差统计的电力系统爬坡能力充裕度评估

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202309084

中国电力 ›› 2024, Vol. 57 ›› Issue (5): 50-60.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202309084

• 新型电力系统源网荷储灵活资源运营及关键技术 • 上一篇下一篇

基于净负荷预测误差统计的电力系统爬坡能力充裕度评估

陈中飞¹(), 赵越¹, 蔡秋娜¹, 张乔榆¹, 王泽林²(), 戴晓娟², 陈雨果²

1. 广东电网有限责任公司电力调度控制中心，广东广州　510600
2. 北京清能互联科技有限公司，北京　100080

收稿日期:2023-09-18 接受日期:2023-12-15 出版日期:2024-05-28 发布日期:2024-05-16
作者简介:陈中飞（1993—），男，硕士，工程师，从事电力市场运行分析、电力系统调度运行研究，E-mail：524324960@qq.com
王泽林（1997—），男，通信作者，硕士，从事电力市场、电力系统调度运行研究，E-mail：wangzl@tsintergy.com
基金资助:
广东省重点领域研发计划资助项目（广东省电力源网荷储智慧联动运营关键技术，2019B111109002）。

Adequacy Evaluation of Power System Ramping Capability Based on Net Load Forecast Error Statistics

Zhongfei CHEN¹(), Yue ZHAO¹, Qiuna CAI¹, Qiaoyu ZHANG¹, Zelin WANG²(), Xiaojuan DAI², Yuguo CHEN²

1. Power Dispatching and Control Center of Guangdong Power Grid Co., Ltd., Guangzhou 510600, China
2. Beijing TsIntergy Technology Co., Ltd., Beijing 100080, China

Received:2023-09-18 Accepted:2023-12-15 Online:2024-05-28 Published:2024-05-16
Supported by:
This work is supported by Guangdong Key Area Research Projects (Key Technologies for the Intelligent Linkage Operation of Power Source, Network, Load and Storage in Guangdong Province, No.2019B111109002).

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在新能源快速发展的背景下，为应对其出力波动性和间歇性对电力系统的冲击，电力系统需要具有较强的爬坡能力。分析电力系统爬坡能力的供需情况，可以发现爬坡能力不足的风险，提高电力系统运行的安全性和稳定性。首先，提出电力系统爬坡能力充裕度评估的逻辑和流程，并且给出确定性爬坡量、不确定性爬坡量和富余爬坡能力及其需供比的定义与概念。然后，提出基于置信数统计法和分位数回归法预估系统净负荷预测误差的理论与具体计算方法，以及上述参数的具体计算方法。最后，基于广东40个历史运行日和4个典型日的数据进行算例分析，验证该充裕度评估方法的有效性。研究表明：富余爬坡能力需供比可以有效识别不同典型日和特殊时段的爬坡特征，在日尺度和分钟尺度上反映其爬坡能力充裕度；覆盖率、超出量和预估量等指标，可以用于评价误差预估模型在不同地区和场景的适用性，作为模型选用参考。

关键词: 爬坡能力充裕度, 需供比, 系统净负荷预测误差, 置信数统计法, 分位数回归法

Abstract:

In the context of rapid development of renewable energy, the power system is required to keep sufficient ramping capability for coping with the renewable generation's fluctuation and intermittence. Analyzing the supply-demand situation of the power system's ramping capability can discover the risk of insufficient ramping capability and improve the security and stability of the power system operation. This paper firstly proposes the logic and procedure for power system ramping capability adequacy evaluation, and clarifies the definitions and concepts of the netload ramping capacity, uncertainty ramping capacity, surplus ramping capability and its demand-supply ratio. And the theories and specific calculation methods for estimating the netload forecast error based on the confidence statistics and quantile regression, as well as the specific calculation methods for the above parameters, are subsequently proposed. Finally, an example analysis is carried out based on the data of forty historical operating days and four typical days in Guangdong to validate the effectiveness of the proposed adequacy evaluation method. This research indicates that the surplus ramping capability demand-supply ratio can effectively identify the ramping characteristics in different typical days and special periods, reflecting the adequacy of ramping capability in the day and minute scale; the indicators such as coverage, excess, and estimation quantity can be used to evaluate the applicability of error estimation models in different regions and scenarios, serving as a reference for model selection.

Key words: ramping capability adequacy, demand-supply ratio, netload forecast error, confidence statistics, quantile regression

陈中飞, 赵越, 蔡秋娜, 张乔榆, 王泽林, 戴晓娟, 陈雨果. 基于净负荷预测误差统计的电力系统爬坡能力充裕度评估[J]. 中国电力, 2024, 57(5): 50-60.

Zhongfei CHEN, Yue ZHAO, Qiuna CAI, Qiaoyu ZHANG, Zelin WANG, Xiaojuan DAI, Yuguo CHEN. Adequacy Evaluation of Power System Ramping Capability Based on Net Load Forecast Error Statistics[J]. Electric Power, 2024, 57(5): 50-60.

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链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202309084

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2024/V57/I5/50

图/表 9

图 1 电力系统爬坡能力充裕度评估流程

Fig.1 The flow chart of power system ramping capability adequacy evaluation

图 2 典型日确定性爬坡量、不确定性爬坡量和富余爬坡能力

Fig.2 The netload ramping capacity, uncertainty ramping capacity and surplus ramping capability for typical days

图 3 典型日富余爬坡能力需供比

Fig.3 The demand-supply ratio of surplus ramping capability for typical days

图 4 系统净负荷预测误差率散点折线图

Fig.4 The scatter and line chart of the net load forecast error rate

图 5 系统负荷预测误差散点曲线图

Fig.5 The scatter and line chart of the load forecast error

图 6 光伏发电功率预测误差散点曲线图

Fig.6 The scatter and line chart of the photovoltaic generation forecast error

图 7 风电功率预测误差散点曲线图

Fig.7 The scatter and line chart of the wind power generation forecast error

图 8 置信数统计法和分位数回归法的指标示意

Fig.8 The indicator schematic for confidence statistics and quantile regression

表 1 置信数统计法和分位数回归法的指标对比

Table 1 The comparison of indicators for confidence statistics and quantile regression

项目	置信数统计法	分位数回归法
覆盖率/%	95.36	96.02
正误差超出量/GW	121.90	104.50
正误差预估量/TW	24.70	26.30
负误差超出量/GW	112.90	103.00
负误差预估量/TW	25.60	28.00

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基于净负荷预测误差统计的电力系统爬坡能力充裕度评估

Adequacy Evaluation of Power System Ramping Capability Based on Net Load Forecast Error Statistics

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