关键词: 电力市场, 负荷预测, 供需形势, 重点行业

Abstract: Affected by the domestic and international macroeconomic situation from the year of 2012, the growth rate of electricity demand in Henan Province has been slowing down dramatically to 3.33% in 2012 and 1.17% in the first half of 2013, which are both far lower than the average growth rate of 11.7% during“The Eleventh Five-Year Plan”. Moreover, the growth rate for industry usage in the first half of 2013 is -0.86%, and that of energy-intensive industries hits -3.8%, which account for 54% of the electricity demand of the industry usage. Through the analysis on the inconstancies between the electric power consumption growth and the social economy growth, along with the market environment and the power consumption tendency in several typical industries in Henan Province, the electric power demand tendency of Henan Province is forecasted in this paper. In the end, this paper concludes that under the new circumstances, the slowdown of electric power demand is going to mitigate the electric power demand and supply situation. The development of electric power industry will turn to be an essential booster rather than constraints in the development of social economy.

Key words: electricity market, load forecast, supply and demand situation, key industry