关键词: 减排目标, 能源需求, 模型, 展望

Abstract: Forecasting long-term energy demand and proposing corresponding sustainable energy development strategies has been a hot research area for a long time. Based on the combined“bottom-up” and“top-down” thinking, a global energy demand analysis model is established in this paper by employing simulation methods including time series, trend extrapolation, econometrics and energy system (equilibrium) analysis. By designing a 2 ℃ scenario in which CO2 emission from energy sector is reduced by 50% in 2050, the proposed model analyses the world energy demand in 2050. The key findings under 2 ℃ scenario are as follows: i) Asia Pacific, particularly India, will become an important engine for global energy demand growth, while the global energy demand will reach the ceiling in 2045; ii) the structure of primary energy demand will be dominated by non-fossil energy and the non-hydro renewable energy will be the main driver for the transformation; iii) electricity will play a dominant role in the change of final energy consumption structure and it will take the place of petroleum to take up the largest share in final energy.

Key words: emission reduction target, energy demand, model, prospect