碳达峰背景下中国电力行业碳排放因素和脱钩效应

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202306019

中国电力 ›› 2024, Vol. 57 ›› Issue (5): 88-98.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202306019

• 新型能源体系下电碳协同市场机制及优化运行 • 上一篇下一篇

碳达峰背景下中国电力行业碳排放因素和脱钩效应

李旭东¹(), 谭青博², 赵浩辰¹, 乔宁³, 刘力纬⁴(), 谭彩霞¹, 谭忠富¹()

1. 华北电力大学经济与管理学院，北京　102206
2. 俄罗斯乌拉尔联邦大学，俄罗斯叶卡捷琳堡　620002
3. 国网宁夏电力公司，宁夏银川　750001
4. 对外经济贸易大学国际商学院，北京　100029

收稿日期:2023-06-05 接受日期:2024-03-29 出版日期:2024-05-28 发布日期:2024-05-16
作者简介:李旭东（1997—），男，博士研究生，从事电力技术经济研究，E-mail：1169771877@qq.com
刘力纬（1976—），女，教授，从事新能源技术经济研究，E-mail：vliu6868@163.net
谭忠富（1964—），男，通信作者，教授，从事电力技术经济、能源经济研究，E-mail：tanzhongfu@sina.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目（碳中和愿景下能源系统“源网荷储”互补运行优化模型与机制，72174062）。

Carbon Emission Factors and Decoupling Effects of China's Power Industry under the Background of Carbon Peak

Xudong LI¹(), Qingbo TAN², Haochen ZHAO¹, Ning QIAO³, Liwei LIU⁴(), Caixia TAN¹, Zhongfu TAN¹()

1. School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
2. Ural Federal University, Ekaterinburg 620002, Russia
3. State Grid Ningxia Electric Power Co., Ltd., Yinchuan 750001, China
4. International Business School, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029, China

Received:2023-06-05 Accepted:2024-03-29 Online:2024-05-28 Published:2024-05-16
Supported by:
This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Optimization Model and Mechanism of Complementary Operation of Energy System "source, Network, Load, Storage" Under the Vision of Carbon Neutrality, No.72174062)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

探求电力行业CO₂排放驱动因素和脱钩效应既能促进“双碳”目标实现，也有利于改善中国环境总体质量，极具现实意义。对2004—2020年中国电力行业CO₂排放量进行测算，并采用LMDI模型和Tapio脱钩模型对电力行业CO₂排放的驱动因素和脱钩状态进行研究，在此基础上基于SSA-LSSVM预测模型对中国电力行业2021—2030年CO₂排放量和脱钩状态进行预测分析。研究结果表明：1）电力行业CO₂排放影响因素中，经济增长是主要因素，电力生产结构效应和电力生产强度效应对电力行业CO₂排放量起到明显的抑制作用；2）整个研究期内，电力行业CO₂排放量与经济增长处于弱脱钩状态；3）从电力行业CO₂排放预测值来看，基准情景、低碳情景、强低碳情景下电力行业CO₂排放量均呈现上升趋势，2022—2030年电力行业CO₂排放与经济增长均处于弱脱钩状态。基于研究结果，为降低中国电力行业CO₂排放量，建议转变经济增长方式，实现经济绿色低碳增长；发展清洁能源，构建新型电力系统；推进低碳技术创新，实现电力行碳排放脱钩。

关键词: CO₂排放, LMDI模型, 电力行业, Tapio脱钩

Abstract:

It is of great practical significance to explore the driving factors and decoupling effects of CO₂ emissions in electric power industry, which can not only promote the realization of "dual carbon" goal, but also improve the overall environmental quality in China. In this paper, the CO₂ emissions of China's electric power industry from 2004 to 2020 are estimated, and the driving factors and decoupling status of CO₂ emissions of the electric power industry are studied with the LMDI model and Tapio decoupling model. On this basis, the CO₂ emissions and the decoupling status of the electric power industry during 2021-2030 were analyzed based on the SSA-LSSVM prediction model. The results show that: (1) the economic growth is the main factor of CO₂ emission growth in the electric power industry, and the effects of power production structure and power production intensity have an obvious inhibition effects on CO₂ emissions; (2) during the whole study period, the CO₂ emissions from the power industry was in a weak decoupling status from economic growth; (3) from the predicted value of CO₂ emissions from the electric power industry, the CO₂ emissions from the electric power industry show an upward trend under the baseline scenario, low-carbon scenario and strong low-carbon scenario, and the CO₂ emissions from the electric power industry is in a weak decoupling status from economic growth during 2022-2030. Based on the research results, in order to reduce the CO₂ emissions of China's electric power industry, it is proposed to change the economic growth mode to achieve the green and low-carbon economic growth, to develop clean energy to build a new power system, to promote low-carbon technology innovation to realize the decoupling of carbon emissions of electric power industry.

Key words: CO₂ emissions, LMDI model, electric power industry, Tapio decoupling

李旭东, 谭青博, 赵浩辰, 乔宁, 刘力纬, 谭彩霞, 谭忠富. 碳达峰背景下中国电力行业碳排放因素和脱钩效应[J]. 中国电力, 2024, 57(5): 88-98.

Xudong LI, Qingbo TAN, Haochen ZHAO, Ning QIAO, Liwei LIU, Caixia TAN, Zhongfu TAN. Carbon Emission Factors and Decoupling Effects of China's Power Industry under the Background of Carbon Peak[J]. Electric Power, 2024, 57(5): 88-98.

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链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202306019

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2024/V57/I5/88

图/表 9

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脱钩状态		$ {\Delta \mathit{E}}_{\mathbf{C}\mathbf{E}} $	$ {\Delta \mathit{E}}_{\mathbf{g}\mathbf{d}\mathbf{p}} $	e
脱钩	强脱钩	＜0	＞0	(–∞, 0]
	弱脱钩	＞0	＞0	(0, 0.8]
	衰弱脱钩	＜0	＜0	(1.2, +∞)
连接	增长连接	＞0	＞0	(0.8, 1.2]
连接	衰弱连接	＜0	＜0	(0.8, 1.2]
负脱钩	强负脱钩	＞0	＜0	(–∞, 0]
	弱负脱钩	＜0	＜0	(0, 0.8]
	增长负脱钩	＞0	＞0	(1.2, +∞)

脱钩状态		$ {\Delta \mathit{E}}_{\mathbf{C}\mathbf{E}} $	$ {\Delta \mathit{E}}_{\mathbf{g}\mathbf{d}\mathbf{p}} $	e
脱钩	强脱钩	＜0	＞0	(–∞, 0]
	弱脱钩	＞0	＞0	(0, 0.8]
	衰弱脱钩	＜0	＜0	(1.2, +∞)
连接	增长连接	＞0	＞0	(0.8, 1.2]
连接	衰弱连接	＜0	＜0	(0.8, 1.2]
负脱钩	强负脱钩	＞0	＜0	(–∞, 0]
	弱负脱钩	＜0	＜0	(0, 0.8]
	增长负脱钩	＞0	＞0	(1.2, +∞)

周期	$ \Delta {{E}}_{\rm{C}\rm{F}} $	$ \Delta {{E}}_{\rm{F}\rm{H}} $	$ \Delta {{E}}_{\rm{P}\rm{S}} $	$ \Delta {{E}}_{\rm{E}\rm{X}} $	$ \Delta{{E}}_{\rm{g}\rm{d}\rm{p}} $	$ \Delta {{E}}_{\rm{C}\rm{E}} $
2004—2005	–1.57	–0.27	–10.97	–48.32	161.13	100.00
2005—2006	–1.00	–32.40	17.58	–25.33	141.16	100.00
2006—2007	–1.71	–50.71	0.49	–72.80	224.74	100.00
2007—2008	–3.06	–54.20	–136.07	–621.82	915.15	100.00
2008—2009	–1.29	–30.96	13.33	–5.89	124.81	100.00
2009—2010	–1.38	–216.39	–30.99	–110.71	459.47	100.00
2010—2011	–0.32	–10.60	16.78	–46.73	140.86	100.00
2011—2012	–0.37	68.18	–231.13	–134.08	397.40	100.00
2012—2013	–0.02	14.95	–2.06	6.28	80.85	100.00
2013—2014	0.08	125.53	49.16	8.63	–83.40	100.00
2014—2015	0.36	72.30	44.27	20.27	–37.20	100.00
2015—2016	–0.57	7.28	–105.43	34.59	164.12	100.00
2016—2017	–0.03	33.65	–15.42	–26.84	108.64	100.00
2017—2018	–0.12	–60.22	–17.05	24.24	153.14	100.00
2018—2019	0.07	49.57	–45.44	–3.11	98.91	100.00
2019—2020	–0.25	45.69	–31.06	78.33	7.29	100.00

周期	$ \Delta {{E}}_{\rm{C}\rm{F}} $	$ \Delta {{E}}_{\rm{F}\rm{H}} $	$ \Delta {{E}}_{\rm{P}\rm{S}} $	$ \Delta {{E}}_{\rm{E}\rm{X}} $	$ \Delta{{E}}_{\rm{g}\rm{d}\rm{p}} $	$ \Delta {{E}}_{\rm{C}\rm{E}} $
2004—2005	–1.57	–0.27	–10.97	–48.32	161.13	100.00
2005—2006	–1.00	–32.40	17.58	–25.33	141.16	100.00
2006—2007	–1.71	–50.71	0.49	–72.80	224.74	100.00
2007—2008	–3.06	–54.20	–136.07	–621.82	915.15	100.00
2008—2009	–1.29	–30.96	13.33	–5.89	124.81	100.00
2009—2010	–1.38	–216.39	–30.99	–110.71	459.47	100.00
2010—2011	–0.32	–10.60	16.78	–46.73	140.86	100.00
2011—2012	–0.37	68.18	–231.13	–134.08	397.40	100.00
2012—2013	–0.02	14.95	–2.06	6.28	80.85	100.00
2013—2014	0.08	125.53	49.16	8.63	–83.40	100.00
2014—2015	0.36	72.30	44.27	20.27	–37.20	100.00
2015—2016	–0.57	7.28	–105.43	34.59	164.12	100.00
2016—2017	–0.03	33.65	–15.42	–26.84	108.64	100.00
2017—2018	–0.12	–60.22	–17.05	24.24	153.14	100.00
2018—2019	0.07	49.57	–45.44	–3.11	98.91	100.00
2019—2020	–0.25	45.69	–31.06	78.33	7.29	100.00

周期	脱钩指数	脱钩状态	周期	脱钩指数	脱钩状态
2004—2005	0.5396	弱脱钩	2012—2013	1.1450	弱脱钩
2005—2006	0.6112	弱脱钩	2013—2014	–1.2065	强脱钩
2006—2007	0.3843	弱脱钩	2014—2015	–2.7414	强脱钩
2007—2008	0.0991	弱脱钩	2015—2016	0.5901	弱脱钩
2008—2009	0.7537	弱脱钩	2016—2017	0.8489	增长连接
2009—2010	0.1945	弱脱钩	2017—2018	0.6140	弱脱钩
2010—2011	0.6145	弱脱钩	2018—2019	0.9635	增长连接
2011—2012	0.2394	弱脱钩	2019—2020	13.3877	增长负脱钩

碳达峰背景下中国电力行业碳排放因素和脱钩效应

Carbon Emission Factors and Decoupling Effects of China's Power Industry under the Background of Carbon Peak

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Metrics

周期	碳排放转换指数	燃料转换指数	电力生产结构指数	电力消费强度指数	经济效益指数
2004—2005	–0.0085	–0.0015	–0.0592	–0.2607	0.8694
2005—2006	–0.0061	–0.1980	0.1074	–0.1548	0.8628
2006—2007	–0.0066	–0.1949	0.0019	–0.2798	0.8638
2007—2008	–0.0030	–0.0537	–0.1349	–0.6164	0.9072
2008—2009	–0.0097	–0.2334	0.1005	–0.0444	0.9407
2009—2010	–0.0027	–0.4209	–0.0603	–0.2153	0.8937
2010—2011	–0.0019	–0.0651	0.1031	–0.2871	0.8656
2011—2012	–0.0009	0.1632	–0.5532	–0.3209	0.9512
2012—2013	–0.0002	0.1712	–0.0236	0.0719	0.9257
2013—2014	–0.0010	–1.5146	–0.5931	–0.1042	1.0063
2014—2015	–0.0098	–1.9820	–1.2137	–0.5557	1.0198
2015—2016	–0.0033	0.0430	–0.6222	0.2041	0.9685
2016—2017	–0.0002	0.2857	–0.1309	–0.2279	0.9223
2017—2018	–0.0007	–0.3697	–0.1047	0.1489	0.9402
2018—2019	0.0006	0.0478	–0.4378	–0.0299	0.9530
2019—2020	–0.0332	6.1168	–4.1576	10.4863	0.9753

情景	城镇化率	第三产业经济占比增长率	标准煤物理消耗量增长率	火力发电量增长率	年发电量增长率	第二产业增长率	人口数据增长率
基准	0.9	1.24	3.4~1.6	–2.74	4.4	4.40	0.31~0.50
低碳	2.4	2.24	3.0~1.2	–4.74	3.4	4.15	0.56~0.25
强低碳	3.9	3.24	2.6~0.8	–6.74	2.4	3.90	0.81~0

年份	实际值/ 亿t	SSA-LSSVM			LSSVM
年份	实际值/ 亿t	预测值/亿t	绝对误差/亿t	相对误差/%	预测值/亿t	绝对误差/亿t	相对误差/%
2004	19.00	20.472	1.47	7.75	26.84	7.84	41.29
2005	21.14	21.983	0.85	4.00	27.29	6.16	29.12
2006	23.88	23.923	0.05	0.20	27.89	4.01	16.79
2007	26.11	25.710	0.40	1.53	28.51	2.40	9.18
2008	26.61	26.471	0.14	0.51	28.84	2.23	8.37
2009	28.09	27.540	0.55	1.97	29.33	1.24	4.41
2010	29.23	29.243	0.01	0.04	29.98	0.75	2.57
2011	32.94	31.941	1.00	3.02	30.88	2.06	6.26
2012	33.60	32.638	0.96	2.87	31.31	2.29	6.82
2013	36.60	34.547	2.05	5.61	32.05	4.55	12.44
2014	33.97	34.086	0.11	0.34	32.27	1.70	5.01
2015	31.93	33.367	1.44	4.50	32.43	0.50	1.57
2016	32.71	34.090	1.38	4.21	32.93	0.21	0.65
2017	35.35	35.863	0.51	1.45	33.60	1.75	4.94
2018	37.11	37.536	0.43	1.15	34.24	2.87	7.73
2019	38.95	38.758	0.19	0.49	34.67	4.28	10.99
2020	40.82	39.859	0.96	2.35	34.98	5.83	14.29

年份	基准情景		低碳情景		强低碳情景
年份	脱钩指数	脱钩状态	脱钩指数	脱钩状态	脱钩指数	脱钩状态
2021	–0.03	强脱钩	–0.27	强脱钩	–0.61	强脱钩
2022	0.30	弱脱钩	0.20	弱脱钩	0.11	弱脱钩
2023	0.30	弱脱钩	0.20	弱脱钩	0.11	弱脱钩
2024	0.27	弱脱钩	0.19	弱脱钩	0.11	弱脱钩
2025	0.29	弱脱钩	0.19	弱脱钩	0.11	弱脱钩
2026	0.30	弱脱钩	0.20	弱脱钩	0.11	弱脱钩
2027	0.28	弱脱钩	0.19	弱脱钩	0.13	弱脱钩
2028	0.31	弱脱钩	0.22	弱脱钩	0.15	弱脱钩
2029	0.34	弱脱钩	0.24	弱脱钩	0.17	弱脱钩
2030	0.31	弱脱钩	0.23	弱脱钩	0.17	弱脱钩

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碳达峰背景下中国电力行业碳排放因素和脱钩效应

Carbon Emission Factors and Decoupling Effects of China's Power Industry under the Background of Carbon Peak

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