Abstract:
It is of great practical significance to explore the driving factors and decoupling effects of CO
2 emissions in electric power industry, which can not only promote the realization of "dual carbon" goal, but also improve the overall environmental quality in China. In this paper, the CO
2 emissions of China's electric power industry from 2004 to 2020 are estimated, and the driving factors and decoupling status of CO
2 emissions of the electric power industry are studied with the LMDI model and Tapio decoupling model. On this basis, the CO
2 emissions and the decoupling status of the electric power industry during 2021-2030 were analyzed based on the SSA-LSSVM prediction model. The results show that: (1) the economic growth is the main factor of CO
2 emission growth in the electric power industry, and the effects of power production structure and power production intensity have an obvious inhibition effects on CO
2 emissions; (2) during the whole study period, the CO
2 emissions from the power industry was in a weak decoupling status from economic growth; (3) from the predicted value of CO
2 emissions from the electric power industry, the CO
2 emissions from the electric power industry show an upward trend under the baseline scenario, low-carbon scenario and strong low-carbon scenario, and the CO
2 emissions from the electric power industry is in a weak decoupling status from economic growth during 2022-2030. Based on the research results, in order to reduce the CO
2 emissions of China's electric power industry, it is proposed to change the economic growth mode to achieve the green and low-carbon economic growth, to develop clean energy to build a new power system, to promote low-carbon technology innovation to realize the decoupling of carbon emissions of electric power industry.