Analysis on the spatiotemporal evolution mechanism of electricity consumption inequality in China

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202508055

Abstract

Abstract:

Energy transition needs to balance equity, which is a core demand of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. From the dual perspectives of population and regional area, this study calculates the Gini coefficient of electricity consumption to quantitatively assess the spatiotemporal evolution of electricity consumption inequality, and employs a Bayesian linear regression model to identify its key driving factors. The findings indicate that significant disparities exist in the level of electricity consumption inequality between China and the global average, with China's rapid power development playing a crucial role in mitigating global electricity consumption inequality. The gravity center of electricity consumption has shown a trend of "shifting south – advancing west – stabilization" in turn, with the westward movement driving a decline in the Gini coefficient of electricity consumption. GDP and urbanization rate are positively correlated with the equalization of electricity consumption distribution, and the expansion of transmission lines of high-voltage and above has played a role in cross-regional resource allocation. Based on the analysis of key driving factors, a multidimensional development path for promoting the balanced development of electricity consumption is proposed, which takes economic activation, gap reduction, technological empowerment, and institutional reform as the key measures.

Key words: electricity consumption, Gini coefficient, inequality, consumption gravity center

LIU Tian, ZHANG Shining, WENG Yuwei, ZHANG Chaoyi, LIU Tongming. Analysis on the spatiotemporal evolution mechanism of electricity consumption inequality in China[J]. Electric Power, 2026, 59(6): 13-23.

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URL: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202508055

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/Y2026/V59/I6/13

Figures/Tables 11

Fig.1 Lorenz curve of electricity consumption

Fig.2 Variation trend of population-based Gini coefficient of electricity consumption in China (1999—2023)

Fig.3 Relationship between cumulative population and electricity consumption in China for the years 1999, 2007, 2014, and 2023

Fig.4 Variation trends of Gini coefficient of electricity consumption and Gini coefficient of per capita disposable income

Fig.5 Relationship between global cumulative population and electricity consumption for the year 2022

Fig.6 Variation trend of area- and population-based electricity consumption Gini coefficient in China (1999—2023)

Table 1 Interval definition of imbalance based on the Gini coefficient of electricity consumption

基尼系数	均衡程度
0	绝对均衡
0~0.3	低不均衡
0.3~0.4	中等不均衡
大于0.4	高度不均衡

Fig.7 Variation trend of the electricity consumption gravity center (1999—2023)

Fig.8 Electricity consumption growth in 31 provincial-level administrative regions of China

Fig.9 Variation in the share of electricity consumption in the northwest half of the Hu Huanyong Line relative to national total electricity consumption (1999—2023)

Table 2 Bayesian linear regression results for power Gini coefficient

变量	均值	标准差	10%最高后验密度区间	90%最高后验密度区间	显著性
GDP	–0.018	0.011	–0.031	–0.006	显著负相关
城镇化率	–0.029	0.007	–0.038	–0.020	显著负相关
第三产业比重	0.017	0.006	0.008	0.024	显著正相关
220 kV及以上电网线路长度年增长率	–0.008	0.003	–0.011	–0.004	显著负相关

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