Impact of COVID-19 on China's Total Electricity Consumption in 2020 and Its Trend

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202007074

Abstract

Abstract: Electricity consumption is an important boundary condition for power grid companies to formulate medium- and long-term electric power planning and annual comprehensive plan. It is of great significance to accurately measure the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic. This paper constructed a calculation and prediction model for the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on electricity consumption, designed the benchmark and risk scenarios, calculated the impact of the epidemic and policy factors on electricity consumption from the dimensions of total electricity consumption, sector, industry, region and province, and predicted the growth trend of electricity consumption in 2020. The results show that the epidemic and policy factor is expected to reduce the growth rate of electricity consumption in 2020 by 2.6~3.3 percentage points in the business region operated by the State Grid Corporation of China (SGCC). The outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic has had a significant impact on electricity consumption. The epidemic situation should be closely followed and rolling adjustment be made on the prediction results.

Key words: COVID-19 epidemic, 2020, electricity consumption, scenario analysis, trend study

LIU Qing, WU Chenrui, ZHANG Chuncheng, WU Shanshan, WANG Xiang, JI Guoqiang. Impact of COVID-19 on China's Total Electricity Consumption in 2020 and Its Trend[J]. Electric Power, 2020, 53(12): 248-257.

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URL: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202007074

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/Y2020/V53/I12/248

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