Study on the Trend of China's Electricity Consumption during the “14 th Five Year Plan”

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202006284

Abstract

Abstract: At present, China has started the compilation of the "14th five year plan" for electric power development, and the electricity consumption level is an important boundary condition during the 14th Five Year Plan period. Considering the influence factors of power consumption, such as macro-economy and power substitution, the basic and sensitive scheme is set up, and the medium and long-term electricity consumption prediction model is adopted to forecast the electricity consumption level of China during the "14th five year plan". The results show that according to the basic and sensitive schemes, China's electricity consumption in 2025 will be 9.85 trillion and 9.44 trillion kWh respectively, and the average annual growth rate during the "14th five year plan" period will be 5.6% and 4.7% respectively. According to the principle of moderately advanced power planning, it is suggested that the results of the "basic scheme" be used as the boundary conditions of the "14th five year plan" electric power planning.

Key words: electricity consumption, influencing factors, scheme analysis, trend research

LIU Qing, ZHANG Lili, LI Jiangtao, ZHANG Chenglong, TAN Xiandong, ZHANG Kai, GUO Wei. Study on the Trend of China's Electricity Consumption during the “14 th Five Year Plan”[J]. Electric Power, 2022, 55(1): 214-219.

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URL: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202006284

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/Y2022/V55/I1/214

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