Analysis and Prospect of Gap Between Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in China in Recent Years

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202405136

Abstract

Abstract:

From 2020 to 2023, electricity consumption in China was higher than the economic growth, causing widespread concern and doubts in society. By building an analytical model for the gap between electricity consumption and economic growth that reflected the statistical difference between industries and residents' lives, the reasons why electricity consumption was higher than economic growth were analyzed comprehensively. It was found that from 2020 to 2023, electricity consumption continued to be higher than economic growth, mainly due to the impact of electrification, digitalization, and intelligence. In addition, electricity consumption in the secondary industry was higher than the growth rate of its added value. High energy consumption sectors in the manufacturing industry had the greatest impact, while the impact of equipment manufacturing, such as electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, computer/communications, and other electronic equipment manufacturing, was intensifying. The influence of temperature in 2022 was more prominent. It was generally expected that China's electricity consumption would still be higher than economic growth before 2030, or in other words, the elasticity coefficient of electricity consumption would still be greater than 1.

Key words: electricity consumption, economy, growth rate, gap analysis

Xiang WANG, Xiandong TAN, Chenglong ZHANG, Qing LIU, Yifan ZHANG. Analysis and Prospect of Gap Between Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in China in Recent Years[J]. Electric Power, 2024, 57(10): 199-207.

Add to citation manager EndNote|Ris|BibTeX

URL: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202405136

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/Y2024/V57/I10/199

Figures/Tables 7

Fig.1 Change in gap between electricity consumption and GDP growth in China

Fig.2 Analysis and calculation process of gap between electricity consumption and GDP growth in whole society

Fig.3 Average annual growth rate of electricity consumption and added value in different sectors from 2020 to 2023

Fig.4 Contribution of industry to gap between electricity consumption and economic growth from 2020 to 2023

Fig.5 Comparison of proportion of electricity consumption and added value in manufacturing industry in 2023

Fig.6 Comparison of electricity consumption and growth rate of added value in manufacturing industry from 2020 to 2023

Fig.7 Impact of manufacturing industry on gap between electricity consumption and economic growth from 2020 to 2023

References 26

1	蒋金荷, 姚愉芳. 中国经济增长与电力发展关系的定量分析研究[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究, 2002, 19 (10): 5- 10. DOI
2	袁家海, 丁伟, 胡兆光. 电力消费与中国经济发展的协整与波动分析[J]. 电网技术, 2006, 30 (9): 10- 15. DOI
	YUAN Jiahai, DING Wei, HU Zhaoguang. Analysis on cointegration and co-movement of electricity consumption and economic growth in China[J]. Power System Technology, 2006, 30 (9): 10- 15. DOI
3	张琳, 何炼成, 王俊霞. 电力消费与中国经济增长: 基于中国30省市面板数据的协整检验[J]. 山西财经大学学报, 2008, 30 (12): 18- 21.
	ZHANG Lin, HE Liancheng, WANG Junxia. Electricity consumption and economic growth in China—based on the 30 provincial panel data co-integration test[J]. Journal of Shanxi Finance and Economics University, 2008, 30 (12): 18- 21.
4	林伯强. 电力消费与中国经济增长: 基于生产函数的研究[J]. 管理世界, 2003, 19 (11): 18- 27.
	LIN Boqiang. Electric consumption and China's economic growth: a study based on production function[J]. Management World, 2003, 19 (11): 18- 27.
5	CHEN S T, KUO H I, CHEN C C. The relationship between GDP and electricity consumption in 10 Asian countries[J]. Energy Policy, 2007, 35 (4): 2611- 2621. DOI
6	刘生龙, 高宇宁, 胡鞍钢. 电力消费与中国经济增长[J]. 产业经济研究, 2014, (3): 71- 80.
	LIU Shenglong, GAO Yuning, HU Angang. Electricity consumption and China's economic growth[J]. Industrial Economics Research, 2014, (3): 71- 80.
7	LIN B Q, WANG Y. Inconsistency of economic growth and electricity consumption in China: a panel VAR approach[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2019, 229, 144- 156. DOI
8	伍萱, 李琼慧. 关于我国电力弹性系数研究[J]. 中国电力企业管理, 2000, (12): 21.
9	郝卫平, 李琼慧, 赵一农. 我国电力弹性系数的现实意义[J]. 中国电力, 2003, 36 (5): 8- 10.
	HAO Weiping, LI Qionghui, ZHAO Yinong. Current significance of electricity elasticity coefficient in China[J]. Electric Power, 2003, 36 (5): 8- 10.
10	单葆国, 张成龙, 王向, 等. 中国电力弹性系数与工业化阶段关系[J]. 中国电力, 2020, 53 (7): 1- 6.
	SHAN Baoguo, ZHANG Chenglong, WANG Xiang, et al. Relationship between electricity elasticity coefficient and industrialization stage in China[J]. Electric Power, 2020, 53 (7): 1- 6.
11	欧阳昌裕. 正确对待电力弹性系数法: 电力需求预测思考[J]. 中国电力企业管理, 2000, (12): 22- 23.
12	林卫斌, 苏剑, 施发启. 经济增长、能耗强度与电力消费: 用电量与GDP增长率背离的原因探析[J]. 经济科学, 2010, (5): 15- 22.
13	肖宏伟. 用电量与经济增长“短期背离” 的原因分析[J]. 宏观经济管理, 2015, (6): 27- 29.
14	王保安. 从用电量铁路货运量的波动看结构调整的积极变化[N]. 人民日报, 2015-10-08(10).
15	谭显东, 单葆国, 吴姗姗, 等. 经济新常态下中国全社会用电量与GDP增速差距研究[J]. 中国电力, 2017, 50 (12): 5- 9.
	TAN Xiandong, SHAN Baoguo, WU Shanshan, et al. Study on the difference between China's total electricity consumption and economic growth under the new normal[J]. Electric Power, 2017, 50 (12): 5- 9.
16	南方能源观察. 我国电力消费增长缘何高于经济增长?[EB/OL](2024-01-22)[2024-05-10]. https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/9Zy7eegVSq5jmU7Tq4P4jQ.
17	雪涛宏观笔记. 破解用电量持续高增之谜[EB/OL] (2024-03-31)[2024-05-10]. https://www.gelonghui.com/p/714449.
18	单葆国, 李江涛, 谭显东, 等. 经济转型时期电力弹性系数应用[J]. 中国电力, 2017, 50 (12): 1- 4.
	SHAN Baoguo, LI Jiangtao, TAN Xiandong, et al. The application of electricity elasticity coefficient during economic transition period[J]. Electric Power, 2017, 50 (12): 1- 4.
19	国家统计局. 中国第三产业统计年鉴-2023[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2023.
20	国家统计局国民经济核算司. 2020年中国投人产出表[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2022年.
21	何蕾. 中国工业行业产能利用率测度研究: 基于面板协整的方法[J]. 产业经济研究, 2015, (2): 90- 99.
	HE Lei. Measuring capacity utilization in China's industries: a panel cointegration method[J]. Industrial Economics Research, 2015, (2): 90- 99.
22	卢梅, 王科. 中国工业两位数行业经济能源环境数据估算[J]. 环境经济研究, 2019, 4 (4): 28- 46.
	LU Mei, WANG Ke. Economic, energy and environmental data estimation of China's two-digit industrial sectors[J]. Journal of Environmental Economics, 2019, 4 (4): 28- 46.
23	李婧婧, 郝悦, 朱祎, 等. 全球新冠肺炎疫情下中国对外贸易和出口替代效应研究[J]. 调研世界, 2023, (3): 41- 51.
	LI Jingjing, HAO Yue, ZHU Yi, et al. Research on China's foreign trade and export substitution effect under the influence of global COVID-19[J]. The World of Survey and Research, 2023, (3): 41- 51.
24	薛万磊, 温权, 单葆国. 降温负荷分析方法研究[J]. 能源技术经济, 2011, 23 (11): 37- 40.
	XUE Wanlei, WEN Quan, SHAN Baoguo. Study on the analytical method of power load for cooling[J]. Energy Technology and Economics, 2011, 23 (11): 37- 40.
25	United Nations. World Population Prospects: The 2024 Revision [R]. 2024.
26	蔡昉, 都阳. 人口与劳动绿皮书: 中国人口与劳动问题报告No. 24 [M]. 北京: 社会科学文献出版社, 2023年.

[1]	DAI Daoming, ZHAO Ying. Evolutionary Game Analysis for Government Supervision of Green Electricity Certificate in a Renewable Energy Power Supply Chain with Portfolio Standard [J]. Electric Power, 2025, 58(4): 216-229.
[2]	Lei ZHANG, Xiaowei MA, Manliang WANG, Li CHEN, Bingtuan GAO. Distributed Collaborative Control Strategy for Intra-regional AGC Units in Interconnected Power System with Renewable Energy [J]. Electric Power, 2025, 58(3): 8-19.
[3]	Luyang LI, Longxiang CHEN, Lei CHEN, Dawei SUN, Linlin WU, Yong MIN. Research on Economic Configuration of Energy Storage for Assisting New Energy in Primary Frequency Regulation [J]. Electric Power, 2024, 57(7): 54-65.
[4]	Xiang WANG, Guoqiang JI, Chenrui WU. Trend of Manufacturing Transfer and Undertaking Between Regions in China Based on Electricity Consumption by Province and Industry [J]. Electric Power, 2024, 57(6): 1-8.
[5]	Hao PENG, Zhengjing LUO, Xiangyang XIA, Gang ZENG, Yujian OU, Guiquan CHEN, Jijun WANG, Lihong LIU. Health State Equalization Control Strategy for Multi-battery Clusters in Energy Storage Systems [J]. Electric Power, 2024, 57(6): 45-52.
[6]	Cailing ZHANG, Shuang WANG, Shuna GE, Deng PAN, Yan ZHANG, Wei HAN, Wenyan DUAN. Optimal Scheduling of Integrated Energy Systems Considering Flexible Demand Response and Carbon Emission-Green Certificate Joint Trading [J]. Electric Power, 2024, 57(5): 14-25.
[7]	Zimeng LI, Tiankuo WANG, Pengfei HU, Yanxue YU, Yi DU, Qiyuan CAI. Bi-level Collaborative Configuration Optimization of Biogas-Wind-Solar Integrated Energy System Based on Energy Hub [J]. Electric Power, 2024, 57(4): 1-13.
[8]	Dongshun ZHANG, Hengli QUAN, Hua XIE, Zhihong XU, Yayun TAO, Huisheng WANG. Dispatching Strategy of Park-Level Integrated Energy System Considering Carbon Trading Mechanism and Hydrogen Blending Natural Gas [J]. Electric Power, 2024, 57(2): 183-193.
[9]	YUAN Tiejiang, ZHANG Hong, YANG Yang, WANG Zhengyi. Whole Life Cycle Economic Assessment of Renewable Energy-PEM Electrolyzer Hydrogen Production [J]. Electric Power, 2023, 56(3): 30-35,46.
[10]	XU Yanping, SHI Haobo, QIN Xiaohui, ZHAO Mingxin, BAI Jie, Ding Baodi. Analysis of Investment Economy of Electric Boilers with Thermal Storage in Source-Load Application Scenarios [J]. Electric Power, 2023, 56(2): 123-132.
[11]	Nian ZOU, Meifang WEI, Sheng SU, Yingjun ZHENG, Wenqing ZHOU. Detection of Electricity Theft by Low Voltage Users with Zero Power Consumption Based on Water-Electricity Correlation Information [J]. Electric Power, 2023, 56(12): 206-216.
[12]	WANG Hailin, WENG Yuyan, ZHANG Chenglong. An Analysis of the Driving Factors of Chinese Electricity Consumption from 1997 to 2017 [J]. Electric Power, 2022, 55(7): 74-80.
[13]	CHEN Jialun, JIANG Huanchun, BIAN Shaoshuai, KANG Yingzhe, WU Zhe, HUANG Xin. Study on Operating Optimization of 660 MW Multi-stage Heating Unit Combined with Electric Boiler [J]. Electric Power, 2022, 55(5): 189-195.
[14]	LIU Qing, ZHANG Lili, LI Jiangtao, ZHANG Chenglong, TAN Xiandong, ZHANG Kai, GUO Wei. Study on the Trend of China's Electricity Consumption during the “14 th Five Year Plan” [J]. Electric Power, 2022, 55(1): 214-219.
[15]	ZHANG Yuntao, CAI Guotian, KE Shangjun, WANG Wenxiu. Monthly Electricity Consumption Characteristics of Industries in Guangzhou and Optimized Electricity Management Based on Geographical Detector [J]. Electric Power, 2021, 54(9): 125-134.