德国煤电退出机制和电力安全保供的经验分析

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202504028

中国电力 ›› 2025, Vol. 58 ›› Issue (10): 1-13.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202504028

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德国煤电退出机制和电力安全保供的经验分析

吴迪¹(), 王紫荆²(), 温灵¹, 俞露稼¹, 杨雷¹(), 康俊杰¹()

1. 北京大学能源研究院，北京　100871
2. 香港理工大学，香港　999077

收稿日期:2025-04-12 发布日期:2025-10-23 出版日期:2025-10-28
作者简介:
吴迪（1993），男，硕士，高级分析师，从事能源政策、气候变化与能源转型、电力发展规划研究， E-mail：dwu@ccetp.cn
王紫荆（1997），女，博士研究生，从事碳市场、电力市场、绿色金融研究，E-mail：zijing0626.wang@connect.polyu.hk
杨雷（1974），男，博士，研究员，从事能源转型、能源改革和全球能源治理研究，E-mail：yanglei.energy@pku.edu.cn
康俊杰（1980），男，通信作者，博士，特聘副研究员，从事能源转型、能源政策研究，E-mail：kangjunjie@pku.edu.cn
基金资助:
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目（22JJD480002）；中国工程院咨询项目（我国碳达峰碳中和若干重大问题研究，2022-PP-01）。

Analysis of Germany's Experience with Coal Power Phase-out Mechanism and Power Supply Safeguarding

WU Di¹(), WANG Zijing²(), WEN Ling¹, YU Lujia¹, YANG Lei¹(), KANG Junjie¹()

1. Institute of Energy, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
2. The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong 999077, China

Received:2025-04-12 Online:2025-10-23 Published:2025-10-28
Supported by:
This work is supported by Major Project of Key Research Institutes of Humanities and Social Sciences of the Ministry of Education of China (No.22JJD480002), the Chinese Academy of Engineering (Research on Several Major Issues of China's Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality, No.2022-PP-01).

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

随着德国能源转型的深入推进，加速煤电退出和促进高比例可再生能源消纳成为重点手段。德国煤电退出的顺利推进得益于全社会高度一致的退煤共识，以及政府灵活运用市场手段和行政命令相结合的政策工具。面对煤电逐步退出和可再生能源渗透率持续上升的双重挑战，德国通过不断优化可再生能源上网电价政策以及发挥平衡单元、跨国电网互济和常规电源的保供作用等措施，成功维持了电力系统高安全性与稳定性。本文深入分析德国煤电退出机制和安全保供的相关举措，归纳相关经验与教训，探讨德国实践对中国的借鉴意义，为碳中和背景下中国新型电力系统的构建提供有益参考。

关键词: 煤电, 可再生能源, 竞拍机制, 电力系统, 安全保供

Abstract:

With the deepening of Germany's energy transition, accelerating the phase-out of coal power and promoting the integration of a high proportion of renewable energy have become key strategies. The smooth advancement of Germany's coal power phase-out can be attributed to a broad societal consensus on coal phase-out and the government's flexible use of a combination of market mechanisms and administrative directives. In response to the dual challenges of phasing out coal power and the continuous increase in renewable energy penetration, Germany has successfully maintained a high level of security and stability in its power system by continuously optimizing feed-in tariff policies for renewable energy, leveraging balancing groups, enhancing cross-border grid interconnections, and strengthening the supporting role of conventional power sources. This paper provides an in-depth analysis of Germany's coal power phase-out mechanism and its measures to ensure power supply security, summarizes relevant experiences and lessons, and explores the implications of Germany's practices for China. The aim is to offer valuable insights for the construction of a new power system in China under the carbon neutrality goal.

Key words: coal power, renewable energy, auction mechanism, power system, power supply safeguarding

吴迪, 王紫荆, 温灵, 俞露稼, 杨雷, 康俊杰. 德国煤电退出机制和电力安全保供的经验分析[J]. 中国电力, 2025, 58(10): 1-13.

WU Di, WANG Zijing, WEN Ling, YU Lujia, YANG Lei, KANG Junjie. Analysis of Germany's Experience with Coal Power Phase-out Mechanism and Power Supply Safeguarding[J]. Electric Power, 2025, 58(10): 1-13.

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链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202504028

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2025/V58/I10/1

图/表 11

图 1 德国“退煤委员会”的成员构成

Fig.1 The composition of members of Germany Coal Commission

表 1 德国煤电竞拍机制概览

Table 1 Overview of German coal exit auction rule

轮次	竞拍截止日期	目标容量/MW	招标限价/ (€·kW^–1)	F_gird/ (€·kW^–1)	是否允许南部煤电厂参与	煤电厂停运时间
一	2020/9/1	4000	165	—	否	2021年1月
二	2021/1/4	1500	155	119	是	2021年12月
三	2021/4/30	2481	155	106	是	2022年10月
四	2021/10/1	433	116	93	是	2023年5月
五	2022/3/1	1223	107	85	是	2024年5月
六	2022/8/1	699	98	72	是	2025年4月
七	2023/6/1	542	89	54	是	2026年3月

图 2 德国煤电退出竞拍结果

Fig.2 Results of the coal power plant exit auction in Germany

图 3 德国褐煤和硬煤装机变化情况

Fig.3 Changes in the installed capacity of lignite and hard coal in Germany

图 4 德国不同电源度电成本变化情况

Fig.4 The change in the levelized cost of electricity for different power sources in Germany

图 5 德国发电量占比变化情况

Fig.5 Changes in the share of electricity generation in Germany

图 6 德国可再生能源发电占比和平均停电时间变化情况

Fig.6 Changes in the share of renewable energy generation and average power outage duration in Germany

表 2 EEG2023下750 kW及以下光伏项目的上网电价补贴

Table 2 Feed-in tariff for PV projects of 750 kW and below under EEG 2023

项目容量/kW	基准上网电价/ (€^–2·(kW·h)^–1)	基础上网电价较EEG 2021增加/ (€^–2·(kW·h)^–1)	全额上网补贴/ (€^–2·(kW·h)^–1)	总计上网电价/ (€^–2·(kW·h)^–1)
(0,10]	8.6	1.67	4.8	13.4
(10,40]	7.5	0.65	3.8	11.3
(40,100]	6.2	0.84	5.1	11.3
(100,300]	6.2	0.84	3.2	9.4
(300,750]	6.2	0.84	—	6.2

图 7 德国2024年电力进出口情况（负值为进口，正值为出口）

Fig.7 The electricity import and export situation of Germany in 2024 (negative indicates imports, and positive indicates exports)

图 8 德国2024年8月23日电力供需曲线（负值为进口，正值为出口）

Fig.8 Germany's electricity supply and demand curves on August 23, 2024. (negative indicates imports, and positive indicates exports)

图 9 2024年德国安全备用机制装机情况

Fig.9 Installed capacity of Germany's security reserve mechanism in 2024

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德国煤电退出机制和电力安全保供的经验分析

Analysis of Germany's Experience with Coal Power Phase-out Mechanism and Power Supply Safeguarding

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德国煤电退出机制和电力安全保供的经验分析

Analysis of Germany's Experience with Coal Power Phase-out Mechanism and Power Supply Safeguarding

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