中国电力 ›› 2017, Vol. 50 ›› Issue (2): 1-4.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.2017.02.001.04

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“十三五”中国能源低碳转型的关键期

杜祥琬   

  1. 中国工程院,北京 100088
  • 收稿日期:2016-11-25 出版日期:2017-02-20 发布日期:2017-02-22
  • 作者简介:杜祥琬(1938—),男,河南开封人,院士,从事中国能源发展战略和应对气候变化的咨询研究。E-mail:duxw@cae.cn

The 13th Five-Year Period: A Key Period of China’s Energy Low-Carbon Transition

DU Xiangwan   

  1. Chinese Academy of Engineering, Beijing 100088, China
  • Received:2016-11-25 Online:2017-02-20 Published:2017-02-22

摘要: 在“十二五”发展的基础上,分析了“十三五”中国能源发展的4个背景:中国经济和能源发展进入新常态;2020年要实现全面小康的国家目标,“十三五”需补短板;实现并争取超额实现2020年国家低碳发展目标;《巴黎协定》开启了全球绿色、低碳发展的新阶段,“十三五”能源的发展必须明确指引低碳转型。重点阐述了“十三五”能源低碳转型的发展路径:节能、提效,改变粗放的发展方式;减煤,煤炭年消耗在“十三五”见顶;大力发展非化石能源;稳油增气;发展智慧能源互联网;新型城镇化应走低碳道路。最后,给出了“十三五”中国能源低碳转型应达到的4个标志性目标。

关键词: “, 十三五”, 能源, 低碳转型, 路径, 目标

Abstract: On the basis of the 12th Five-Year Plan’s development, the four backgrounds of China’s energy development in the 13th Five-Year period are analyzed, that is, the development of China’s economy and energy is entering a new normal state; weaknesses have to be fixed to achieve the national goal of a comprehensive well-off society in 2020; the goals of low-carbon development at national level of 2020 must be met or exceeded; since the Paris agreement has started a new stage of the global green and low-carbon energy development, the direction of low-carbon transition should be well defined in the 13th Five-Year period. Therefore, the pathways of China’s energy low-carbon transition in the 13th Five-Year period are highlighted. The extensive development mode should be replaced by energy saving and efficiency enhancing mode. Coal consumption should be peaked within the 13th Five-Year period. Non-fossil fuels should be vigorously developed. Oil production should remain stable while it is expected to increase natural gas output. Intelligent energy internet should be developed. A low-carbon pathway should be followed as a new pattern of urbanization. Finally, four iconic targets of China’s energy low-carbon transition in the 13th Five-Year period are put forward.

Key words: the 13th Five-Year, energy, low-carbon transition, pathway, target

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