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电力系统稳态下可再生能源大规模接入量预测

Prediction of Large-Scale Renewable Energy Access under Steady State of Electric Power System

  • 摘要: 可再生能源发电大规模增加及各类不确定因素叠加对电力系统提出了严峻挑战。研究具有代表性的可再生发电能源,分析电力系统稳定条件下影响可再生能源大规模接入量的因素,基于灰色关联度分析法以及极端梯度提升算法(eXtreme boosting system,XGBoost)算法筛选关键因素,构建了可再生能源大规模接入量预测模型,并以某地区电力系统为例对预测模型进行验证。结果表明:所提方法具有可行性,能为新型电力系统制定合理有效的电力规划提供参考。

     

    Abstract: The large-scale increase in renewable energy generation and the superposition of various uncertainties have posed severe challenges to power systems. This paper studies representative energy sources, analyzes the factors affecting the large-scale integration of renewable energy under power system stability conditions, screens key factors based on grey correlation analysis and XGBoost, and constructs a prediction model for the large-scale integration of renewable energy. The proposed model is verified by a regional power system. The results show that the proposed is feasible and can provide a reference for the reasonable and effective power planning of new power systems.

     

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