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基于互补集合经验模态分解和长短期记忆神经网络的短期电力负荷预测

Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on Complementary Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition and Long Short-Term Memory

  • 摘要: 随着电力行业的不断发展,负荷预测的重要性也不断彰显,作为负荷预测的重要组成部分,短期负荷预测对于电力系统的调度运行、市场交易都有着重要的意义,精确的负荷预测有助于提高发电设备的利用率和经济调度的有效性。由于影响负荷数据的随机因素太多且具有较强非线性的特点,提出一种基于互补集合经验模态分解和长短期记忆神经网络的短期电力负荷预测方法。通过对某市负荷数据进行仿真,将仿真结果与其他传统预测方法结果相对比,最终证明长短期记忆神经网络模型的误差更低,具有较高的预测精度。同时将互补集合经验模态分解下的长短期记忆神经网络方法与其他分解方法下的长短期记忆神经网络模型预测结果进行对比,验证互补集合经验模态分解方法对提升预测精度的有效性。

     

    Abstract: With the continuous development of power industry, the importance of load forecasting is becoming more and more obvious. As an important part of load forecasting, short-term load forecasting is of great significance to the dispatching and operation of power system and market transactions. Accurate load forecasting is helpful to improve the utilization rate of power generation equipment and the effectiveness of economic dispatching. Because load data are affected by many random factors and have strong nonlinear characteristics, a short-term power load forecasting method is proposed based on complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition and long short-term memory. A simulation is made of a city’s power load data using the proposed method, and the simulation results are compared with those of other traditional forecasting methods. It is proved that the long short-term memory model has lower error and higher prediction accuracy. At the same time, the prediction results of complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition and long short-term memory are compared with those of long short-term memory model under other decomposition methods, which has verified that the complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition method is effective in improving the prediction accuracy.

     

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