关键词: 能源需求, 电力需求, 碳排放, 中长期情景分析, 分析模型

Abstract: By comprehensive consideration of future economic development and the production volume in major industries, the scenarios analysis model of mid-long term energy and electricity demand and carbon emission in China by “bottom-up” method was constructed. The primary energy, electricity demand, energy structure and carbon emission in 2015, 2020 and 2030 of three different circumstances were forecasted. The ratio of non-fossil energy and carbon emission intensity were measured and calculated. The results show that the primary energy demand in China could be raised to about 5 billion tons of standard coal, and the electricity demand could be raised to about 7.7 PW?h by 2020. If maximize the use of all kinds of clean energy, the carbon emission intensity in 2020 can be reduced more than 40%~45% of the carbon emission intensity in 2005, and the ratio of non-fossil energy consumption in primary energy consumption could be raised to 15% by 2020 in all the three economic development circumstances.

Key words: energy demand, electricity demand, carbon emissions, mid-long term scenario analysis, analysis model