考虑碳排放约束的新能源与调峰资源优化配置方法

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202303046

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

“双碳”目标下，随着新能源并网装机规模加速增长，系统调峰需求快速增长，新能源与系统调峰资源协同优化发展成为高质量构建新型电力系统的重点之一。本文引入碳排放约束，构建了综合考虑新增机组投资与系统运行成本的新能源与调峰资源优化配置模型，针对不同新能源利用率目标，设置多个发展场景，研究了不同场景下的电力系统运行经济性。考虑未来以省（市）为单位进行碳减排评估与考核，以中部地区的省级电网为研究算例，验证了所提模型方法的有效性。

关键词: 碳排放约束, 新能源, 调峰资源, 优化配置模型

Abstract:

In the goal of the "Dual Carbon", with the rapid increase of the installed capacity of new energy, the demand for system regulation resources is also growing fast. Hence the coordination and optimization of the new energy and regulation resources is getting more attentions in building a new-type power system with high quality. This paper constructs an optimization model for new energy and regulation resources development with the objective of minimizing investment cost of additional units and operating cost of the system subject to carbon emission constraint and other constraints. Multiple development scenarios are set up with respect to different utilization rates of the new energy, and the operational economics of power system under each scenario are studied. Considering the carbon emission reduction target will be established and assessed for each province individually in the future, a provincial power grid in central China is taken as an example to verify the effectiveness of the proposed model, and research results and conclusions are provided at the end of paper.

Key words: carbon emission constraint, new energy, regulation resources, optimal configuration model

李虎军, 张栋, 吕梦璇, 邓方钊, 杨萌, 元博. 考虑碳排放约束的新能源与调峰资源优化配置方法[J]. 中国电力, 2024, 57(4): 42-51.

Hujun LI, Dong ZHANG, Mengxuan LV, Fangzhao DENG, Meng YANG, Bo YUAN. Research on the Optimal Configuration Method of New Energy and Flexible Regulation Resources Considering Carbon Emission Constraint[J]. Electric Power, 2024, 57(4): 42-51.

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链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202303046

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2024/V57/I4/42

图/表 16

图 1 典型日负荷特性变化

Fig.1 Typical daily load curves and changing trends

图 2 年负荷变化情况

Fig.2 Annual load curves and changing trends

图 3 各月风电日出力曲线

Fig.3 Daily outputs of wind power in different months

图 4 光伏日出力曲线

Fig.4 Daily outputs of PV power in different months

图 5 研究求解流程

Fig.5 Flowchart of the solution process

图 6 对规划年典型日负荷曲线调整效果

Fig.6 Typical load curve after adjustment

表 1 大负荷日风电、光伏的概率出力系数

Table 1 Guaranteed power coefficient of wind power and photovoltaic power during heavy load day 单位：%

典型时刻	新能源	97%概率保证出力系数	95%概率保证出力系数	90%概率保证出力系数	85%概率保证出力系数	80%概率保证出力系数
夏季午高峰	风电	0.70	1.00	1.70	2.50	3.30
夏季午高峰	光伏	34.60	35.10	36.00	37.30	38.20
夏季晚高峰	风电	9.70	10.60	11.80	12.70	13.90
夏季晚高峰	光伏	0	0	0	0	0
夏季午高峰	风电	1.70	1.90	2.40	3.00	3.90
夏季午高峰	光伏	1.90	3.00	4.80	6.30	7.80
夏季晚高峰	风电	2.00	2.50	3.40	4.40	5.50
夏季晚高峰	光伏	0	0	0	0	0

图 7 规划年全省风电出力曲线

Fig.7 Wind power curve

图 8 规划年全省光伏出力曲线

Fig.8 Photovoltaic power curve

图 9 新能源发展规划规模

Fig.9 New energy development plan

表 2 不同场景灵活性资源配置容量

Table 2 Optimized flexible resource configuration scheme

场景	灵活性资源配置	十四五/ 万kW	十五五/ 万kW	十六五/ 万kW
1	灵活性改造	2000	2000	1000
	抽水蓄能	120	550	550
	电化学储能	300	400	500
	需求侧响应	0	51	90
2	灵活性改造	2500	2500	0
	抽水蓄能	180	720	600
	电化学储能	400	500	600
	需求侧响应	0	68	120
3	灵活性改造	2500	2500	0
	抽水蓄能	240	790	720
	电化学储能	500	600	700
	需求侧响应	0	85	150

图 10 不同场景系统投资及运行成本

Fig.10 Total system investments in different scenarios

图 11 不同发展场景下的碳排放曲线

Fig.11 Carbon emissions in different scenarios

图 12 不同场景下的新能源弃电率

Fig.12 Curtailment rate of renewables in different scenarios

图 13 不同场景下的煤电机组利用小时数

Fig.13 Coal power utilization hours in different scenarios

表 3 省级电网可再生能源电力消纳权重预期完成情况

Table 3 Expected completion of renewable energy power consumption weight in a provincial power network 单位：%

新能源利用指标	2025年		2030年
新能源利用指标	方案值	预期目标	方案值	预期目标
可再生能源电力消纳权重	37	32.2	45	40.0
非水可再生能源电力消纳权重	29	25.9	38	33.2

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