基于生产模拟的受端电网新能源发展场景研究

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202307086

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

“双碳”目标驱动下，受端电网新能源大规模并网，加之外来电力比重加大，电力平衡难度增加，受端电网实现清洁替代面临多重困难。基于实际运行数据，分析了新能源低出力特性及其与负荷的匹配特性，总结了高比例新能源电力系统面临的关键问题。在此基础上，建立电力系统时序生产模拟模型，基于2030年预测数据的标幺化，设计2060年案例场景，量化分析典型受端省级电网的新能源、煤电和调节资源的配置问题，以及不同新能源发展场景下实现清洁替代的方案，并提出相关措施和建议。

关键词: 新能源, 时序生产模拟, 标幺化, 调节资源, 碳中和

Abstract:

Driven by the goals of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality", the large-scale integration of renewable energy into the receiving-end power grid, coupled with the increasing proportion of external electricity, has made it more difficult to balance electricity and achieve clean substitution in the receiving-end power grid. Based on actual operating data, the low output characteristics of renewable energy and its matching characteristics with load were analyzed, and the key issues faced by high-proportion renewable energy power systems were summarized. On this basis, a time series production simulation model for the power system was established, and the scenario for the 2060 case was designed based on the standardization of the 2030 forecast data. Quantitative analysis was conducted on the allocation of renewable energy, coal-fired power, and flexible resources in typical provincial receiving-end power grids, as well as the implementation of clean substitution solutions in different renewable energy development scenarios, and relevant measures and suggestions were proposed.

Key words: renewable energy, time series production simulation, standardization, flexible resources, carbon neutrality

王帅, 黄越辉, 聂元弘, 刘思扬. 基于生产模拟的受端电网新能源发展场景研究[J]. 中国电力, 2024, 57(5): 240-250.

Shuai WANG, Yuehui HUANG, Yuanhong NIE, Siyang LIU. Research on Development Scenario of Renewable Energy in Receiving-End Power Grid Based on Production Simulation[J]. Electric Power, 2024, 57(5): 240-250.

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链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202307086

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2024/V57/I5/240

图/表 11

参考文献 29

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省级电网数量	类别	低出力年累计时长/h	单次持续时间/h
省级电网数量	类别	低出力年累计时长/h	最大	最小
20	风电＜10%	154.25	28.75	0.25
	光伏＜10%	2507.75	16.75	0.25
	风+光＜10%	1095.00	17.50	0.25
	风电＜5%	1.50	1.50	1.50
	光伏＜5%	2089.25	15.75	0.25
	风+光＜5%	30.25	14.50	3.25
5	风电＜10%	1022.50	36.75	0.25
	光伏＜10%	2239.50	17.75	0.25
	风+光＜10%	2899.25	36.25	0.25
	风电＜5%	237.00	25.75	0.25
	光伏＜5%	1721.00	16.25	0.25
	风+光＜5%	750.75	16.00	0.25
1	风电＜10%	2787.75	129.75	0.25
	光伏＜10%	1936.75	18.75	0.25
	风+光＜10%	2718.00	66.50	0.25
	风电＜5%	1507.75	82.50	0.25
	光伏＜5%	1444.25	15.50	0.25
	风+光＜5%	1512.75	18.75	0.25

省级电网数量	类别	低出力年累计时长/h	单次持续时间/h
省级电网数量	类别	低出力年累计时长/h	最大	最小
20	风电＜10%	154.25	28.75	0.25
	光伏＜10%	2507.75	16.75	0.25
	风+光＜10%	1095.00	17.50	0.25
	风电＜5%	1.50	1.50	1.50
	光伏＜5%	2089.25	15.75	0.25
	风+光＜5%	30.25	14.50	3.25
5	风电＜10%	1022.50	36.75	0.25
	光伏＜10%	2239.50	17.75	0.25
	风+光＜10%	2899.25	36.25	0.25
	风电＜5%	237.00	25.75	0.25
	光伏＜5%	1721.00	16.25	0.25
	风+光＜5%	750.75	16.00	0.25
1	风电＜10%	2787.75	129.75	0.25
	光伏＜10%	1936.75	18.75	0.25
	风+光＜10%	2718.00	66.50	0.25
	风电＜5%	1507.75	82.50	0.25
	光伏＜5%	1444.25	15.50	0.25
	风+光＜5%	1512.75	18.75	0.25

省级电网数量	类别	最大	最小	平均
20	日负荷峰谷差率/%	31.2	10.6	20.8
20	日均负荷率/%	94.2	83.8	90.8
5	日负荷峰谷差率/%	40.0	14.3	24.1
5	日均负荷率/%	93.8	79.6	89.8
1	日负荷峰谷差率/%	39.5	9.5	19.9
1	日均负荷率/%	96.0	79.3	90.9

省级电网数量	类别	最大	最小	平均
20	日负荷峰谷差率/%	31.2	10.6	20.8
20	日均负荷率/%	94.2	83.8	90.8
5	日负荷峰谷差率/%	40.0	14.3	24.1
5	日均负荷率/%	93.8	79.6	89.8
1	日负荷峰谷差率/%	39.5	9.5	19.9
1	日均负荷率/%	96.0	79.3	90.9

省级电网数量	年负荷峰谷差率/%	持续时间/h（占比/%）
省级电网数量	年负荷峰谷差率/%	＞90%最大负荷	＞95%最大负荷
20	52.7	332.25（3.8）	84.75（0.99）
5	66.2	391.00（4.5）	146.00（1.7）
1	65.7	288.00（3.3）	86.75（0.97）