关键词: 分布式天然气发电, 电网规划, 能源供应, 负荷预测, 上海

Abstract: Promoted by sustained incentives and adequate natural gas supply, the capacity of distributed generation by natural gas in Shanghai is predicted to grow continuously, and will impact Shanghai power grid development in the future. The electricity demand forecasting and power plant construction scheme of Shanghai grid is analyzed. Based on an analysis of the supply capability and consumption market of natural gas in Shanghai, the development prospect of distributed generation and the natural gas supply potential for it, as well as its impact on Shanghai power grid development are studied. It is concluded that the construction of distributed generation by natural gas is not restricted by construction space; and the installed capacity of this kind of distributed generation in 2015 may reach 400 MW, which will have limited impact on the balance of power supply and demand; the installed capacity in 2020, however, may reach 3.75 GW and the electricity generation will likely exceed 5% of the total power demand , which may have some influence on accommodation of imported power and the utilization-hour of conventional power generation.

Key words: distributed natural gas generation, power grid planning, energy supply, load forecasting, Shanghai