我国大规模储能技术发展预测及分析

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.2013.8.22.7

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 介绍了大规模储能技术发展和应用现状,并建立大规模储能技术发展需求预测模型,进行储能比例、价值规模和社会需求预测,其中价值规模包括工程和辅助服务2方面,社会需求包括环境和社会岗位2方面;最后基于大规模储能技术经济性分析提出其发展方案。分析结果表明：到2020年,我国大规模储能产业装机容量达到33.6~80 GW,储能比例为1.74%~4.13%,且工程和年辅助服务价值规模将分别达到147.8~1603.2亿美元和243.6亿~580亿美元,减排CO₂ 243.8亿~3619.2万t。

关键词: 大规模, 储能, 预测模型, 技术经济性

Abstract: The domestic and international development and application status quo of large-scale energy storage(LSES) technologies is introduced in this paper. A forecasting model is established for development demand of LSES technologies and a prediction is made of the installed capacity rate, economic values and social demand. The economic values include engineering and ancillary services, and the social demand includes environment and social jobs. A development program is proposed based on LSES techno-economic analysis. The analysis results show that the installed capacity of LSES in 2020 will reach 33.6~80 GW with the storage rate of 1.74% to 4.13%, and the economic values of engineering and ancillary services will reach up to 14.78 billion to 160.32 billion dollars and 24.36 billion to 58 billion dollars, respectively, with a benefit of reducing CO₂ emission of 2.43~36.19 million tons.

Key words: large-scale, energy storage, forecasting model, techno-economic characters

中图分类号:

TM651

严晓辉, 徐玉杰, 纪律, 陈海生, 谭春青. 我国大规模储能技术发展预测及分析[J]. 中国电力, 2013, 46(8): 22-29.

YAN Xiao-hui, XU Yu-jie, JI Lv, CHEN Hai-sheng, TAN Chun-qing. Forecasting and Analysis on Large-Scale Energy Storage Technologies in China[J]. Electric Power, 2013, 46(8): 22-29.

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https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2013/V46/I8/22

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