基于精准气象数据的地区电网短期负荷智能预测系统设计

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202108026

中国电力 ›› 2022, Vol. 55 ›› Issue (7): 128-133.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202108026

基于精准气象数据的地区电网短期负荷智能预测系统设计

李丹¹, 张远航¹, 李黄强³, 童华敏³, 王凌云²

1. 三峡大学电气与新能源学院，湖北宜昌 443002;
2. 梯级水电站运行与控制湖北省重点实验室（三峡大学），湖北宜昌 443002;
3. 国网湖北省电力公司宜昌供电公司，湖北宜昌 443000

收稿日期:2021-08-28 修回日期:2022-05-26 出版日期:2022-07-28 发布日期:2022-07-20
作者简介:李丹（1980—），女，博士，副教授，从事新能源负荷预测研究，E-mail：lucy2140@163.com;张远航（1994—），男，通信作者，硕士研究生，从事负荷预测研究，E-mail：1016513170@qq.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51807109)。

Design of a Short-Term Load Intelligent Forecasting System for Regional Power Grid Based on Accurate Weather Data

LI Dan¹, ZHANG Yuanhang¹, LI Huangqiang³, TONG Huamin³, WANG Lingyun²

1. College of Electrical Engineering and New Energy, Three Gorges University, Yichang 443002 , China;
2. Hubei Provincial Key Laboratory of Operation and Control of Cascade Hydropower Stations, Three Gorges University, Yichang 443002, China;
3. Yichang Power Supply Company of State Grid Hubei Electric Power Co., Ltd. , Yichang 443000, China

Received:2021-08-28 Revised:2022-05-26 Online:2022-07-28 Published:2022-07-20
Supported by:
This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.51807109)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于分时分区精细化气象数据，研发地区电网短期负荷智能预测系统，实现功率曲线的日前精确预测。该系统的特点在于将网供负荷分解为多种功率分量的叠加，并针对各功率分量特点和影响因素，提供多种特征选择模式、预测方法以及历史参照日，以提高短期负荷预测的精度、自动化程度和工作效率。

关键词: 负荷预测, 气象数据, 新能源功率预测, 预测系统

Abstract: Based on the time-zoned refined meteorological data, the regional power grid short-term load intelligent prediction system is developed to realize the accurate forecast of the power curve. The features of this system are to decompose the grid supply load into the superposition of various power components, and to provide a variety of feature selection modes, prediction methods and historical reference dates according to the characteristics and influencing factors of each power component, which improves the accuracy, automation and work efficiency of short-term load forecasting.

Key words: load forecasting, weather data, renewable energy generation power forecasting, forecasting system

李丹, 张远航, 李黄强, 童华敏, 王凌云. 基于精准气象数据的地区电网短期负荷智能预测系统设计[J]. 中国电力, 2022, 55(7): 128-133.

LI Dan, ZHANG Yuanhang, LI Huangqiang, TONG Huamin, WANG Lingyun. Design of a Short-Term Load Intelligent Forecasting System for Regional Power Grid Based on Accurate Weather Data[J]. Electric Power, 2022, 55(7): 128-133.

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链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202108026

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2022/V55/I7/128

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基于精准气象数据的地区电网短期负荷智能预测系统设计

Design of a Short-Term Load Intelligent Forecasting System for Regional Power Grid Based on Accurate Weather Data

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基于精准气象数据的地区电网短期负荷智能预测系统设计

Design of a Short-Term Load Intelligent Forecasting System for Regional Power Grid Based on Accurate Weather Data

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