融合风光出力场景生成的综合能源系统主从博弈运行优化策略

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202502017

中国电力 ›› 2025, Vol. 58 ›› Issue (11): 72-87.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202502017

• 高比例新能源区域综合能源系统调度、控制与可靠性研究 • 上一篇下一篇

融合风光出力场景生成的综合能源系统主从博弈运行优化策略

文四海¹(), 鲜跃生¹(), 韩杨¹, 刘群英², 陈树恒¹()

1. 电子科技大学机械与电气工程学院，四川成都　611731
2. 电子科技大学自动化工程学院，四川成都　611731

收稿日期:2025-02-11 修回日期:2025-03-08 发布日期:2025-12-01 出版日期:2025-11-28
作者简介:
文四海（2000），男，硕士研究生，从事综合能源系统、电力系统优化规划研究，E-mail：2245936614@qq.com
鲜跃生（1997），男，硕士研究生，从事考虑新能源不确定性的电力系统优运行研究，E-mail：xianyuesheng@126.com
陈树恒（1974），男，通信作者，博士，副教授，从事电力系统运行及其控制，智能电网研究，E-mail：chenshuheng@uestc.edu.cn
基金资助:
四川省自然科学基金资助项目（2025ZNSFSC0451）。

A Stackelberg Game-based Optimization Strategy for Integrated Energy Systems Incorporating Wind-solar Power Scenario Generation

WEN Sihai¹(), XIAN Yuesheng¹(), HAN Yang¹, LIU Qunying², CHEN Shuheng¹()

1. School of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu 611731, China
2. School of Automation Engineering, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu 611731, China

Received:2025-02-11 Revised:2025-03-08 Online:2025-12-01 Published:2025-11-28
Supported by:
This work is supported by Sichuan Provincial Natural Science Foundation (No.25NSFSC1506).

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

针对综合能源系统多物理系统耦合和多利益主体参与运行的特点，为提升含高渗透率新能源的综合能源系统的能源利用率和运营效益，并计及各运行主体的运行诉求，对考虑风光出力不确定性和相关性的一主多从综合能源系统运行优化策略进行了研究。首先，提出了基于混合Copula函数理论的风光出力场景生成方法，得到风光出力的典型日场景。其次，构建面向多用户的综合能源服务商模型，并建立电、热负荷的综合需求响应模型。然后，以综合能源销售部门作为领导者，向用户发布售能价格和需求响应补偿单价；以园区能源聚合部门和储能电站作为跟随者，调节能源耦合转换装置设备出力、园区间的电能交互及储能电站充放能。最后，通过算例研究，证明该方法和策略能有效提升综合能源系统的经济效益。

关键词: 混合Copula, 主从博弈, 综合需求响应, 场景生成, 电能交互, 信息间隙理论

Abstract:

In view of the characteristics of multi-physical system coupling and multi-stakeholder involvement in the operation of integrated energy systems (IES), this paper conducts a study on the optimization strategy of the leader-follower integrated energy systems considering the uncertainty and correlation of wind and solar output, aiming to enhance the energy utilization rate and operational efficiency of the IES with high permeability of new energy while taking into account the operational demands of various entities involved. Firstly, a scenario generation method based on mixed Copula function theory is presented to obtain typical daily scenarios of wind and PV power generation. Secondly, a multi-user integrated energy service provider model is developed and an integrated demand response model for electricity and heat loads is established. And then, the integrated energy sales department, acting as the leader, publishes energy selling prices and demand response compensation rates to users; the park energy aggregation department and energy storage stations, acting as followers, regulate the output of energy coupling conversion equipment, electricity exchange between parks, and the charging and discharging of energy storage stations. Finally, case studies demonstrate that the proposed methods and strategies can effectivey enhance the economic benefits of the integrated energy system.

Key words: mixed Copula, stackelberg game, integrated demand response, scenario generation, electrical interaction, IGDT

文四海, 鲜跃生, 韩杨, 刘群英, 陈树恒. 融合风光出力场景生成的综合能源系统主从博弈运行优化策略[J]. 中国电力, 2025, 58(11): 72-87.

WEN Sihai, XIAN Yuesheng, HAN Yang, LIU Qunying, CHEN Shuheng. A Stackelberg Game-based Optimization Strategy for Integrated Energy Systems Incorporating Wind-solar Power Scenario Generation[J]. Electric Power, 2025, 58(11): 72-87.

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链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202502017

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2025/V58/I11/72

图/表 13

参考文献 28

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参数	时段
参数	00:00— 07:00	08:00— 12:00	13:00— 23:00
配电网购售电价/(元·(kW·h)^–1)	0.31	0.64	1
园区间购售电价/(元·(kW·h)^–1)	0.19	0.42	0.67
集中风电场售电价/(元·(kW·h)^–1)	0.25	0.53	0.84
储能电站购售电价/(元·(kW·h)^–1)	0.26	0.54	0.85
天然气价/(元·m^–3)	1.8	2.9	3.8

参数	时段
参数	00:00— 07:00	08:00— 12:00	13:00— 23:00
配电网购售电价/(元·(kW·h)^–1)	0.31	0.64	1
园区间购售电价/(元·(kW·h)^–1)	0.19	0.42	0.67
集中风电场售电价/(元·(kW·h)^–1)	0.25	0.53	0.84
储能电站购售电价/(元·(kW·h)^–1)	0.26	0.54	0.85
天然气价/(元·m^–3)	1.8	2.9	3.8

设备名称	英语缩写	能量转换效率	运行损耗系数/ (元·(kW·h)^–1)
燃气轮机	GT	0.35	0.021
燃气锅炉	GB	0.9	0.026
余热锅炉	WHB	0.68	0.016
溴化锂制冷机	LBAC	0.72	0.013
储能电站	ESS	0.98	0.013
空调	AC	3	0.015
光伏机组	PV	/	0.039
风电机组	WT	/	0.039
配电网	/	/	0.003

设备名称	英语缩写	能量转换效率	运行损耗系数/ (元·(kW·h)^–1)
燃气轮机	GT	0.35	0.021
燃气锅炉	GB	0.9	0.026
余热锅炉	WHB	0.68	0.016
溴化锂制冷机	LBAC	0.72	0.013
储能电站	ESS	0.98	0.013
空调	AC	3	0.015
光伏机组	PV	/	0.039
风电机组	WT	/	0.039
配电网	/	/	0.003

Copula函数类型	参数	参数估计值	K-S校验值				平方欧式距离和$ {d^2} $	AIC	BIC
Copula函数类型	参数	参数估计值	$ {U_1} $	$ {p_1} $	$ {U_2} $	$ {p_2} $	平方欧式距离和$ {d^2} $	AIC	BIC
Gaussian	$ {\theta _{\rm Ga}} $	0.9313	0	0.0828	0	0.5006	32.2602	–1948.9227	–1890.8426
Clayton	$ {\theta _{\rm C}} $	3.4814	1	0.0082	1	0.0039	42.5377	–1764.3040	–1706.2239
Gumbel	$ {\theta _{\rm G}} $	6.4684	0	0.6303	0	0.3607	31.5718	–2699.7685	–2641.6884
Frank	$ {\theta _{\rm F}} $	21.3129	0	0.5230	1	0.1020	31.0751	–2182.4469	–2124.3668
Mixed	$ {\lambda _{\rm Ga}} $	0.1498	0	0.8552	0	0.9108	30.9761	–5031.3016	–4566.6610
	$ {\lambda _{\rm C}} $	0.1265
	$ {\lambda _{\rm G}} $	0.0427
	$ {\lambda _{\rm F}} $	0.6809
	$ {\theta _{\rm Ga}} $	0.9604
	$ {\theta _{\rm C}} $	0.8331
	$ {\theta _{\rm G}} $	529.6581
	$ {\theta _{\rm F}} $	81.8658

融合风光出力场景生成的综合能源系统主从博弈运行优化策略

A Stackelberg Game-based Optimization Strategy for Integrated Energy Systems Incorporating Wind-solar Power Scenario Generation

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图/表 13

参考文献 28

相关文章 15

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Metrics

场景类型	综合需求响应	园区间电能交互
场景1	×	×
场景2	×	√
场景3	√	×
场景4	√	√

场景	优化方法	用户购能成本/元	园区1 利润/元	园区2 利润/元	园区3 利润/元	需求响应补偿/元	集中风电场利润/元	储能电站利润/元	IESP向配电网购售电利润/元	弃风弃光惩罚/元	购气成本/ 元	IESP总成本/元	IESP总利润/元
1	A	63212.43	8564.89	13494.16	9942.87	/	11108.25	–450.03	–837.62	1449.97	28736.52	50126.43	13086.00
2	A	60417.87	3445.52	14492.87	10309.00	/	11108.25	225.66	–817.32	502.64	28736.52	50390.43	10027.45
3	A	57175.51	8538.75	12863.27	9157.57	1235.92	11108.25	–602.11	1995.03	1094.03	27661.60	43011.97	14163.25
4	A	55751.70	3944.37	15034.06	9483.55	1665.49	11108.25	488.55	2112.86	217.97	27436.02	43273.63	12478.07
	B	58170.87	4369.75	15242.36	11569.87	1457.99	11108.25	157.15	1994.05	467.73	28010.34	43197.77	14973.10
	C	56999.38	4350.24	14634.51	10613.32	2015.88	11108.25	912.44	1479.22	388.92	28040.37	43957.65	13041.72

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模态框（Modal）标题

融合风光出力场景生成的综合能源系统主从博弈运行优化策略

A Stackelberg Game-based Optimization Strategy for Integrated Energy Systems Incorporating Wind-solar Power Scenario Generation

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