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基于相似日选取和数据重构的短期光伏功率组合预测方法

Short Term Photovoltaic Power Combination Prediction Method Based on Similar Day Selection and Data Reconstruction

  • 摘要: 针对光伏功率随机性较强等问题,提出了一种基于相似日选取和数据重构的短期光伏功率组合预测方法。首先,利用核模糊C均值算法对光伏功率进行聚类分析,通过最大信息系数提取主要影响特征;其次,结合合作博弈思想计算预测日和历史日的综合相关系数,挑选相关性较强的历史日构建训练集;然后,利用变分模态分解将光伏功率分解为若干子序列,计算排列熵值并重构为趋势项、低频项和高频项;最后,对趋势项和低频项采用长短期记忆神经网络进行预测,对高频项采用卷积神经网络-双向长短期记忆神经网络-注意力机制模型进行预测,将结果叠加得到最终预测结果。经实例验证,在不同天气条件下,所提模型整体预测误差最小,可有效提高预测精度。

     

    Abstract: A short-term photovoltaic power combination prediction method based on similar day selection and data reconstruction is proposed to address the strong randomness of photovoltaic power. Firstly, clustering analysis of photovoltaic power is performed using the kernel fuzzy C-means algorithm, and the main influencing features are extracted through the maximum information coefficient. Secondly, the cooperative game theory is used to calculate the comprehensive correlation coefficient between the predicted days and the historical days, and the historical days with strong correlation are selected to construct the training set. Then, the variational mode decomposition method is used to decompose the photovoltaic power into several subsequences, and the permutation entropy is calculated and reconstructed into trend, low-frequency, and high-frequency terms. Finally, the long short-term memory neural networks are used to predict the trend and low-frequency items, while the convolutional neural network-bidirectional long short-term memory-attention models are used to predict the high-frequency items. The final prediction result is obtained by overlaying the results. Through practical examples, it has been verified that under different weather conditions, the overall prediction error of the model is the smallest, which can effectively improve the prediction accuracy.

     

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