System Dynamics Modeling of Green Hydrogen Steel Smelting to Improve Wind Power Consumption

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202310099

Abstract

Abstract:

Rich wind power electrolysis of water to produce hydrogen, coupled with high-pollution steel smelting process, not only promotes the low-carbon transformation of the steel-making industry, but also effectively improves the wind power consumption capacity. In order to simulate the influence of green hydrogen steel smelting on wind power accommodation capacity, considering the reliability of steel smelting, the economy of hydrogen energy development and the environment of wind power generation, the internal interaction and feedback mechanism of green electricity-hydrogen energy-steel smelting coupling system are determined. Combined with the development trend of iron and steel industry and the potential of green hydrogen substitution, a dynamic model of green hydrogen iron and steel smelting system for improving wind power consumption is established. At the same time, considering the government support and the development of hydrogen production technology, a differentiated scenario is constructed to analyze the scale of hydrogen demand and the level of wind power consumption under different conditions. Based on the case of Xinjiang, it is shown that increasing the support of hydrogen metallurgy and improving the efficiency of hydrogen electrolysis can effectively improve the replacement rate of green hydrogen in the iron and steel industry and accelerate the reduction of green hydrogen cost, so as to realize the full consumption of wind power and effectively solve the problem of abandoned wind.

Key words: wind power consumption, green hydrogen demand, iron and steel industry, clean smelting, system dynamics

Zhuan ZHOU, Shuai MIAO, Tiejiang YUAN. System Dynamics Modeling of Green Hydrogen Steel Smelting to Improve Wind Power Consumption[J]. Electric Power, 2024, 57(8): 36-45.

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URL: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202310099

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/Y2024/V57/I8/36

Figures/Tables 11

References 27

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参数	初始值	参数	初始值
地区生产总值/亿元	9630.8	加工废钢率/%	4.5
总人口/万人	2428	绿氢成本/(元·kg^–1)	29.9
生铁产量/万t	849.92	绿氢价格/(元·kg^–1)	53
粗钢产量/万t	868.37	电解效率/%	65
钢材产量/万t	1087.64	电解槽年利用小时数/h	3000
人均饱和水平/(t·人^–1)	12	上网电价/(元·(kW·h)^–1)	0.25
税率/%	15	风力发电量/(亿kW·h)	220
自产废钢率/%	4.25	风电年利用小时数/h	3025

参数	初始值	参数	初始值
地区生产总值/亿元	9630.8	加工废钢率/%	4.5
总人口/万人	2428	绿氢成本/(元·kg^–1)	29.9
生铁产量/万t	849.92	绿氢价格/(元·kg^–1)	53
粗钢产量/万t	868.37	电解效率/%	65
钢材产量/万t	1087.64	电解槽年利用小时数/h	3000
人均饱和水平/(t·人^–1)	12	上网电价/(元·(kW·h)^–1)	0.25
税率/%	15	风力发电量/(亿kW·h)	220
自产废钢率/%	4.25	风电年利用小时数/h	3025

年份	地区生产总值			钢材产量			风力发电量
年份	真实值/亿元	模拟值/亿元	相对误差/%	真实值/万t	模拟值/万t	相对误差/%	真实值/(亿kW·h)	模拟值/(亿kW·h)	相对误差/%
2016	9630.80	9630.80	0	1087.64	1087.64	0	220.00	221.50	0.68
2017	11159.90	11145.52	0.13	1299.64	1308.93	0.71	312.70	318.35	1.81
2018	12809.40	12771.65	0.29	1322.65	1339.92	1.31	360.26	370.60	2.87
2019	13597.10	13765.31	1.24	1367.93	1382.23	1.05	407.16	425.35	4.47
2020	13800.70	14272.4	3.42	1420.52	1459.04	2.71	435.60	453.51	4.11
2021	16311.60	15993.52	1.95	1467.68	1460.06	0.52	503.60	515.75	2.41

年份	地区生产总值			钢材产量			风力发电量
年份	真实值/亿元	模拟值/亿元	相对误差/%	真实值/万t	模拟值/万t	相对误差/%	真实值/(亿kW·h)	模拟值/(亿kW·h)	相对误差/%
2016	9630.80	9630.80	0	1087.64	1087.64	0	220.00	221.50	0.68
2017	11159.90	11145.52	0.13	1299.64	1308.93	0.71	312.70	318.35	1.81
2018	12809.40	12771.65	0.29	1322.65	1339.92	1.31	360.26	370.60	2.87
2019	13597.10	13765.31	1.24	1367.93	1382.23	1.05	407.16	425.35	4.47
2020	13800.70	14272.4	3.42	1420.52	1459.04	2.71	435.60	453.51	4.11
2021	16311.60	15993.52	1.95	1467.68	1460.06	0.52	503.60	515.75	2.41

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