Evolution of Functional Investment Structure of Power Grid Infrastructure Suitable for New Power System

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202309072

Abstract

Abstract:

The construction of new power systems involves the change in both physical form and production organization relationships. With a large amount of investment, how to ensure investment efficiency will be one of the key problems in the construction of new power systems. At present, great changes have taken place in the form of the power grid side, power supply side, and load side. Clarifying the change in investment structure from the perspective of functionalization is the key to discovering the change law of investment, guiding the efficient investment of funds, exploring and improving the investment efficiency of power grid infrastructure, especially unveiling the evolution law of functional investment structure. First of all, the key factors affecting the power grid infrastructure investment were identified through the system dynamics model, and the interrelation, mutual influence, and dynamic change relationship among the factors were further studied. On this basis, the system simulated the evolution trend of each investment function in the power grid infrastructure investment structure under key scenarios, so as to provide suggestions and data support for the medium-term and long-term power grid investment decision-making of enterprises, promote the optimization and upgrading of power grid infrastructure, and build new power systems with higher quality.

Key words: power grid infrastructure investment, evolution of investment structure, new power system, system dynamics

Rui ZHU, Qihe LOU, Xiaoling JIN, Chang LIU. Evolution of Functional Investment Structure of Power Grid Infrastructure Suitable for New Power System[J]. Electric Power, 2024, 57(9): 194-204.

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URL: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202309072

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/Y2024/V57/I9/194

Figures/Tables 28

Fig.1 Power grid infrastructure investment structure

Fig.2 Causal loop of power grid infrastructure investment system

Fig.3 Power grid infrastructure investment stock flow

Fig.4 Analysis scenarios

Table 1 Proportion of national electric energy in terminal consumption 单位：%

模式	2020年	2025年	2030年	2035年	2050年	2060年
基准增长R1	40	43.75	47.5	51.25	62.5	70
持续增长R2	40	45.00	50.0	55.00	70.0	70

Table 2 Parameter setting of centralized and distributed new energy ratios

模式	类型	2020年	2025年	2030年	2035年	2050年	2060年
低比例B1	集中式	0.85	0.75	0.65	0.55	0.55	0.55
低比例B1	分布式	0.15	0.25	0.35	0.45	0.45	0.45
基准比例B2	集中式	0.85	0.70	0.55	0.50	0.50	0.50
基准比例B2	分布式	0.15	0.30	0.45	0.50	0.50	0.50
高比例B3	集中式	0.85	0.65	0.45	0.35	0.35	0.35
高比例B3	分布式	0.15	0.35	0.55	0.65	0.65	0.65

Table 3 Parameter setting of demand-side resource penetration rate

模式	2020年	2025年	2030年	2035年	2050年	2060年
低比例C1	2	3	5	7	8	9
基准比例C2	3	5	8	9	10	10
高比例C3	4	6	10	12	15	15

Table 4 Parameter setting of unit ancillary service income

模式		单位辅助服务收入/(元·(kW·h)^–1)
低情景A1		0.4
基准情景A2		0.5
高情景A3		0.6

Fig.5 Impact of electrification level on proportion of investment in upgrading power transmission capacity

Fig.6 Impact of electrification level on proportion of investment in upgrading regulation capacity

Fig.7 Impact of electrification level on proportion of investment in upgrading digitization level

Fig.8 Impact of electrification level on proportion of investment in upgrading power access capacity

Fig.9 Impact of electrification level on proportion of investment in upgrading load growth

Fig.10 Impact of new energy source scale on proportion of investment in upgrading power transmission capacity

Fig.11 Impact of new energy source scale on proportion of investment in upgrading regulation capacity

Fig.12 Impact of new energy source scale on proportion of investment in upgrading digitization level

Fig.13 Impact of new energy source scale on proportion of investment in upgrading power access capacity

Fig.14 Impact of new energy source scale on proportion of investment in upgrading load growth

Fig.15 Impact of demand response on proportion of investment in upgrading power transmission capacity

Fig.16 Impact of demand response on proportion of investment in upgrading regulation capacity

Fig.17 Impact of demand response on proportion of investment in upgrading digitization level

Fig.18 Impact of demand response on proportion of investment in upgrading power access capacity

Fig.19 Impact of demand response on proportion of investment in upgrading load growth

Fig.20 Impact of ancillary service on proportion of investment in upgrading power transmission capacity

Fig.21 Impact of ancillary service on proportion of investment in upgrading regulation capacity

Fig.22 Impact of ancillary service on proportion of investment in upgrading digitalization level

Fig.23 Impact of ancillary service on proportion of investment in upgrading power access capacity

Fig.24 Impact of ancillary service on proportion of investment in upgrading load growth

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