Probabilistic Modeling Method of Hydrogen Load of Hydrogen Refueling Station Based on Vehicle Behavior Simulation

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202308106

Abstract

Abstract:

The hydrogen load of hydrogen refueling station is affected by the travel behavior of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, and its spatio-temporal distribution is highly uncertain. In order to study the distribution characteristics of hydrogen load of hydrogen refueling station and accurately describe the travel law of vehicle users, a probabilistic modeling method of hydrogen load of hydrogen refueling station based on vehicle behavior simulation is proposed in this paper. Firstly, the probability distribution of behavioral features (such as travel time, travel time, destination, travel distance, etc.) during vehicle travel is fitted based on the American household travel survey data set. Secondly, based on Monte Carlo simulation method, samples are extracted several times to form a travel chain composed of vehicle travel behavior. Finally, based on the type of travel destination, the hydrogen load characteristics of different regional hydrogen stations in one day were simulated. Through rational use of actual travel data and Monte Carlo simulation method, this paper can accurately describe the vehicle behavior law, and infer the hydrogen load characteristics of different regional hydrogen refueling stations according to the type of travel destination.

Key words: hydrogen refueling station, uncertainty, vehicle behavior simulation, hydrogen load probability modeling method, Monte Carlo simulation

Chunhao LU, Chunli ZHOU, Xiqiao LIN, Zhijun CHEN. Probabilistic Modeling Method of Hydrogen Load of Hydrogen Refueling Station Based on Vehicle Behavior Simulation[J]. Electric Power, 2024, 57(8): 46-54, 66.

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URL: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202308106

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/Y2024/V57/I8/46

Figures/Tables 12

References 24

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出行类型		t_r(i–1,i)拟合结果
H—H		$ \begin{aligned}[b] f\left( {{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}}} \right) =& 0.48\exp \left[ { - {{\left( {\dfrac{{{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}} + 0.08}}{{0.51}}} \right)}^2}} \right]{\text{ + }}\\&0.02\exp \left[ { - {{\left( {\dfrac{{{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}} + 0.11}}{{1.48}}} \right)}^2}} \right]\end{aligned} $
H—W		$ \begin{aligned}[b] f\left( {{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}}} \right) =&0.24\exp \left[ { - {{\left( {\dfrac{{{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}} - 0.21}}{{0.14}}} \right)}^2}} \right]{\text{ + }}\\&0.12\exp \left[ { - {{\left( {\dfrac{{{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}} - 0.48}}{{0.37}}} \right)}^2}} \right]\end{aligned} $
H—O		$ f\left( {{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}}} \right) = 0.39\exp \left[ { - {{\left( {\dfrac{{{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}} - 0.21}}{{0.21}}} \right)}^2}} \right] $
W—H		$\begin{aligned}[b] f\left( {{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}}} \right) = &0.29\exp \left[ { - {{\left( {\dfrac{{{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}} - 0.27}}{{0.24}}} \right)}^2}} \right]{\text{ + }}\\& 0.07\exp \left[ { - {{\left( {\dfrac{{{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}} - 0.75}}{{0.42}}} \right)}^2}} \right]\end{aligned} $
W—W		$ \begin{aligned}[b] f\left( {{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}}} \right) = &0.81\exp \left[ { - {{\left( {\dfrac{{{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}} - 0.21}}{{0.08}}} \right)}^2}} \right]{\text{ + }}\\& 0.13\exp \left[ { - {{\left( {\dfrac{{{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}} - 0.34}}{{0.39}}} \right)}^2}} \right]\end{aligned} $
W—O		$ \begin{aligned}[b] f\left( {{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}}} \right) =&0.17\exp \left[ { - {{\left( {\dfrac{{{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}} - 0.14}}{{0.15}}} \right)}^2}} \right]{\text{ + }}\\ &0.13\exp \left[ { - {{\left( {\dfrac{{{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}} - 0.39}}{{0.29}}} \right)}^2}} \right]\end{aligned} $
O—H		$ \begin{aligned}f\left( {{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}}} \right) = &0.48\exp \left[ { - {{\left( {\dfrac{{{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}} - 0.23}}{{0.12}}} \right)}^2}} \right]-\\&0.15\exp \left[ { - {{\left( {\dfrac{{{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}} - 0.40}}{{0.31}}} \right)}^2}} \right]\end{aligned} $
O—W		$ \begin{aligned} f\left( {{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}}} \right) =& 0.75\exp \left[ { - {{\left( {\dfrac{{{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}} - 0.20}}{{0.09}}} \right)}^2}} \right]{\text{ + }}\\&0.16\exp \left[ { - {{\left( {\dfrac{{{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}} - 0.36}}{{0.29}}} \right)}^2}} \right]\end{aligned} $
O—O		$ f\left( {{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}}} \right) = 0.38\exp \left[ { - {{\left( {\dfrac{{{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}} - 0.22}}{{0.22}}} \right)}^2}} \right] $

出行类型		t_r(i–1,i)拟合结果
H—H		$ \begin{aligned}[b] f\left( {{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}}} \right) =& 0.48\exp \left[ { - {{\left( {\dfrac{{{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}} + 0.08}}{{0.51}}} \right)}^2}} \right]{\text{ + }}\\&0.02\exp \left[ { - {{\left( {\dfrac{{{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}} + 0.11}}{{1.48}}} \right)}^2}} \right]\end{aligned} $
H—W		$ \begin{aligned}[b] f\left( {{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}}} \right) =&0.24\exp \left[ { - {{\left( {\dfrac{{{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}} - 0.21}}{{0.14}}} \right)}^2}} \right]{\text{ + }}\\&0.12\exp \left[ { - {{\left( {\dfrac{{{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}} - 0.48}}{{0.37}}} \right)}^2}} \right]\end{aligned} $
H—O		$ f\left( {{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}}} \right) = 0.39\exp \left[ { - {{\left( {\dfrac{{{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}} - 0.21}}{{0.21}}} \right)}^2}} \right] $
W—H		$\begin{aligned}[b] f\left( {{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}}} \right) = &0.29\exp \left[ { - {{\left( {\dfrac{{{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}} - 0.27}}{{0.24}}} \right)}^2}} \right]{\text{ + }}\\& 0.07\exp \left[ { - {{\left( {\dfrac{{{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}} - 0.75}}{{0.42}}} \right)}^2}} \right]\end{aligned} $
W—W		$ \begin{aligned}[b] f\left( {{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}}} \right) = &0.81\exp \left[ { - {{\left( {\dfrac{{{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}} - 0.21}}{{0.08}}} \right)}^2}} \right]{\text{ + }}\\& 0.13\exp \left[ { - {{\left( {\dfrac{{{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}} - 0.34}}{{0.39}}} \right)}^2}} \right]\end{aligned} $
W—O		$ \begin{aligned}[b] f\left( {{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}}} \right) =&0.17\exp \left[ { - {{\left( {\dfrac{{{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}} - 0.14}}{{0.15}}} \right)}^2}} \right]{\text{ + }}\\ &0.13\exp \left[ { - {{\left( {\dfrac{{{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}} - 0.39}}{{0.29}}} \right)}^2}} \right]\end{aligned} $
O—H		$ \begin{aligned}f\left( {{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}}} \right) = &0.48\exp \left[ { - {{\left( {\dfrac{{{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}} - 0.23}}{{0.12}}} \right)}^2}} \right]-\\&0.15\exp \left[ { - {{\left( {\dfrac{{{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}} - 0.40}}{{0.31}}} \right)}^2}} \right]\end{aligned} $
O—W		$ \begin{aligned} f\left( {{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}}} \right) =& 0.75\exp \left[ { - {{\left( {\dfrac{{{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}} - 0.20}}{{0.09}}} \right)}^2}} \right]{\text{ + }}\\&0.16\exp \left[ { - {{\left( {\dfrac{{{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}} - 0.36}}{{0.29}}} \right)}^2}} \right]\end{aligned} $
O—O		$ f\left( {{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}}} \right) = 0.38\exp \left[ { - {{\left( {\dfrac{{{t_{{\text{r}}\left( {i - 1,i} \right)}} - 0.22}}{{0.22}}} \right)}^2}} \right] $

目的地		t_{p_i}拟合结果
H		$ f\left( {{t_{{\text{p}}\_i}}} \right) = 0.65\exp \left[ { - {{\left( {\dfrac{{{t_{{\text{p}}\_i}}}}{{0.21}}} \right)}^2}} \right]{\text{ + }}0.78\exp \left[ { - {{\left( {\dfrac{{{t_{{\text{p}}\_i}} + 16.33}}{{9.42}}} \right)}^2}} \right] $
W		$\begin{aligned}[b] f\left( {{t_{{\text{p}}\_i}}} \right) =& 0.77\exp \left[ { - {{\left( {\dfrac{{{t_{{\text{p}}\_i}} - 2.46}}{{1.51}}} \right)}^2}} \right]{\text{ + }}0.04\exp \left[ { - {{\left( {\dfrac{{{t_{{\text{p}}\_i}} - 8.87}}{{1.18}}} \right)}^2}} \right]{\text{ + }}\\ & 0.02\exp \left[ { - {{\left( {\dfrac{{{t_{{\text{p}}\_i}} - 3.76}}{{2.75}}} \right)}^2}} \right] \end{aligned}$
O		$ f\left( {{t_{{\text{p}}\_i}}} \right) = 0.11\exp \left[ { - {{\left( {\dfrac{{{t_{{\text{p}}\_i}} - 0.88}}{{0.28}}} \right)}^2}} \right] + 0.07\exp \left[ { - {{\left( {\dfrac{{{t_{{\text{p}}\_i}} - 1.45}}{{1.19}}} \right)}^2}} \right] $

目的地		t_{p_i}拟合结果
H		$ f\left( {{t_{{\text{p}}\_i}}} \right) = 0.65\exp \left[ { - {{\left( {\dfrac{{{t_{{\text{p}}\_i}}}}{{0.21}}} \right)}^2}} \right]{\text{ + }}0.78\exp \left[ { - {{\left( {\dfrac{{{t_{{\text{p}}\_i}} + 16.33}}{{9.42}}} \right)}^2}} \right] $
W		$\begin{aligned}[b] f\left( {{t_{{\text{p}}\_i}}} \right) =& 0.77\exp \left[ { - {{\left( {\dfrac{{{t_{{\text{p}}\_i}} - 2.46}}{{1.51}}} \right)}^2}} \right]{\text{ + }}0.04\exp \left[ { - {{\left( {\dfrac{{{t_{{\text{p}}\_i}} - 8.87}}{{1.18}}} \right)}^2}} \right]{\text{ + }}\\ & 0.02\exp \left[ { - {{\left( {\dfrac{{{t_{{\text{p}}\_i}} - 3.76}}{{2.75}}} \right)}^2}} \right] \end{aligned}$
O		$ f\left( {{t_{{\text{p}}\_i}}} \right) = 0.11\exp \left[ { - {{\left( {\dfrac{{{t_{{\text{p}}\_i}} - 0.88}}{{0.28}}} \right)}^2}} \right] + 0.07\exp \left[ { - {{\left( {\dfrac{{{t_{{\text{p}}\_i}} - 1.45}}{{1.19}}} \right)}^2}} \right] $

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