Medium and Long-Term Hydrogen Load Prediction Based on System Dynamics

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202208038

Abstract

Abstract:

Hydrogen energy will play a great role in various fields under the background of “double carbon”, it is important to carry out medium and long-term forecasting of hydrogen demand, and propose a medium and long-term forecasting model of provincial hydrogen demand based on the system dynamics approach. Firstly, the hydrogen demand was divided into three major areas, namely, industry, heating and transportation, and the interaction of internal factors of each subsystem and the influence of external factors such as economic development and policy support were considered to analyze the cause-effect relationship and construct the prediction equation, and on this basis, a flow chart of the total system hydrogen demand prediction was drawn. Secondly, the system parameters are set, and the equation constants are obtained by least squares equation regression, and the table function parameters are set based on the development plan of the province and the gray model. Finally, the system dynamics model built was used to forecast the hydrogen demand in the province.

Key words: system dynamics, hydrogen load prediction, causal analysis, system flow chart, grey model

Tiejiang YUAN, Yijin ZHANG, Zijuan YANG, Dongfang JIANG. Medium and Long-Term Hydrogen Load Prediction Based on System Dynamics[J]. Electric Power, 2023, 56(10): 11-21.

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URL: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202208038

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/Y2023/V56/I10/11

Figures/Tables 17

References 29

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汽油产量影响因素	关联度系数	柴油产量影响因素	关联度系数
公路里程	0.9364	原油加工量	0.9020
能源消费总量	0.9363	工业产值	0.8419
工业产值	0.9044	能源消费总量	0.8162
原油加工量	0.8656	公路里程	0.8142
地区生产总值	0.8344	地区生产总值	0.7258
交通业产值	0.8260	货运量	0.7242
人均可支配收入	0.7571	交通业产值	0.7169
私人汽车保有量	0.6261	民用客货车数量	0.6337
邮政业务总量	0.5852	邮政业务总量	0.5528

汽油产量影响因素	关联度系数	柴油产量影响因素	关联度系数
公路里程	0.9364	原油加工量	0.9020
能源消费总量	0.9363	工业产值	0.8419
工业产值	0.9044	能源消费总量	0.8162
原油加工量	0.8656	公路里程	0.8142
地区生产总值	0.8344	地区生产总值	0.7258
交通业产值	0.8260	货运量	0.7242
人均可支配收入	0.7571	交通业产值	0.7169
私人汽车保有量	0.6261	民用客货车数量	0.6337
邮政业务总量	0.5852	邮政业务总量	0.5528

掺氢比/%	CH₄占比/%	H₂占比/%	高热值/(MJ·m^–3)	密度 /(kg·m^–3）
0	96.114	0.0350	35.785	0.706
5	91.308	5.0333	34.082	0.674
10	86.507	10.032	32.378	0.643
15	81.699	15.028	30.676	0.612
20	76.891	20.028	28.975	0.581

掺氢比/%	CH₄占比/%	H₂占比/%	高热值/(MJ·m^–3)	密度 /(kg·m^–3）
0	96.114	0.0350	35.785	0.706
5	91.308	5.0333	34.082	0.674
10	86.507	10.032	32.378	0.643
15	81.699	15.028	30.676	0.612
20	76.891	20.028	28.975	0.581

第t–1年γ₃		第t年掺氢比/%
0≤γ₃＜0.0035		5
0.0035≤γ₃＜0.007		10
0.007≤γ₃＜0.0105		15
γ₃≥0.0105		20