Practical Method and Error Analysis for Distributed Photovoltaic Power Prediction Based on Spatial Correlation

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202004223

Abstract

Abstract: With the rapid rise of distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation capacity in the low-voltage distribution network, severe challenges have been brought up to the load forecasting of the dispatching department and the security of the grid operation because of its randomness of output. A practical power prediction method for low-voltage distributed PV is proposed. Firstly, a single concentrated PV station is chosen as reference for the distributed PV based on the spatial correlation principle of adjacent regions. Then the output relationship between distributed PV and reference station is established through existing daily generation data in order to calculate the operating capacity of distributed PV. Next, the predicted power of distributed PV is calculated by the output relationship with the power prediction data of the reference station. Thirdly, based upon the definition of the conversion factor of distributed PV, three kinds of error sources related to the proposed method are deduced. Hence, an error correction scheme for capacity constraint and performance difference between distributed PV and reference station is proposed. Case studies using a group of typical distributed PVs in Zhangjiakou area has verified the effectiveness of the method.

Key words: distributed PV, power prediction, error correction, output characteristics, distribution network

SHAO Yinchi, YUAN Shaojun, SUN Rongfu, WU Linlin, CHEN Can. Practical Method and Error Analysis for Distributed Photovoltaic Power Prediction Based on Spatial Correlation[J]. Electric Power, 2021, 54(7): 185-191,207.

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URL: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202004223

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/Y2021/V54/I7/185

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