journal1 ›› 2015, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (8): 46-52.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.10.11930.2015.8.46

• Power System • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Impact of Probability Distribution Model Selection on Extreme Value of Conductor Ice Thickness

YANG Jialun1, ZHU Kuanjun1, LIU Bin1, YIN Quan1, YE Chengzhi2, LI Xingyu3   

  1. 1. China Electric Power Research Institute, Beijing 100055, China;
    2. Hunan Meteorological Observatory, Changsha 410007, China;
    3. Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
  • Received:2015-03-01 Online:2015-11-25 Published:2015-08-25
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51305411); and by State Grid Corporation of China (No.GCB1720201400162); and by the public welfare special fund of the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Science and Technology (No. GYHY201306016).

Abstract: The selection of different probability distribution models can influence conductor ice thickness for specific return period. This paper discuss 3 typical models, namely Pearson Ⅲ distribution, Generalized extreme value distribution and Generalized Pareto distribution. The model applications on historical ice data from Nanyue Mountain weather station of Hunan province are analyzed. The results are helpful for final design of overhead transmission lines during terms of conductor ice thickness calculation.

Key words: transmission line, icing, modeling, pearson Ⅲ distribution, generalized extreme value distribution, generalized pareto distribution, standard ice thickness, return period

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