Study on Low-Carbon Transition Path of Power Industry in Gansu Province Considering Hydrogen Energy Demand

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202211012

Abstract

Abstract:

Hydrogen energy is an important direction in the development of clean energy and has a wide range of application prospects in the fields of power, industry, transportation and building heating, etc. The comprehensive utilization of hydrogen energy is crucial to the low-carbon transformation of the power industry. This paper forecasts the hydrogen energy demand in various fields based on the SVR model and various social data, and uses the energy conversion relationship between power consumption and hydrogen production to equivalently replace the hydrogen energy, while forecasting the investment cost of various types of equipment; the planning model is established with the forecast data, the initial installation situation and carbon emission target as inputs, and the development scale of various power sources, the proportion of installed power and carbon emission as outputs; taking Gansu Province as an example, the planning model is analysed. The impact of hydrogen energy participation in the low-carbon transformation of the power industry is explored, providing reference for the planning of the low-carbon transformation path of the power industry in Gansu Province.

Key words: hydrogen energy, low-carbon transition, demand prediction, planning model

Xueqiang ZHANG, Long DONG, Dong WANG. Study on Low-Carbon Transition Path of Power Industry in Gansu Province Considering Hydrogen Energy Demand[J]. Electric Power, 2023, 56(12): 262-272.

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URL: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202211012

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/Y2023/V56/I12/262

Figures/Tables 16

References 28

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年份	合成甲醇/t	合成氨/t	原油加工量/万t	公交车/辆	城市天然气供气总量/亿m³
2007	57687.00	777460.5	—	—	—
2008	62062.00	658704.5	—	—	—
2009	54008.30	761022.8	—	—	—
2010	50514.72	763833.1	1383.5	4382	7.29
2011	364619.90	733376.0	1613.5	4965	8.81
2012	564232.00	431337.9	1520.5	5214	11.21
2013	506165.30	700655.1	1554.2	5359	13.40
2014	727115.90	575393.0	1446.4	5488	15.92
2015	—	—	1424.3	5275	16.19
2016	—	—	1341.5	5233	16.86
2017	—	—	1440.8	5850	20.37
2018	—	—	1440.0	6519	23.51
2019	—	—	1465.6	7314	25.20
2020	—	—	1467.5	6408	25.44

年份	合成甲醇/t	合成氨/t	原油加工量/万t	公交车/辆	城市天然气供气总量/亿m³
2007	57687.00	777460.5	—	—	—
2008	62062.00	658704.5	—	—	—
2009	54008.30	761022.8	—	—	—
2010	50514.72	763833.1	1383.5	4382	7.29
2011	364619.90	733376.0	1613.5	4965	8.81
2012	564232.00	431337.9	1520.5	5214	11.21
2013	506165.30	700655.1	1554.2	5359	13.40
2014	727115.90	575393.0	1446.4	5488	15.92
2015	—	—	1424.3	5275	16.19
2016	—	—	1341.5	5233	16.86
2017	—	—	1440.8	5850	20.37
2018	—	—	1440.0	6519	23.51
2019	—	—	1465.6	7314	25.20
2020	—	—	1467.5	6408	25.44

场景	投资成本/元	运维成本/元	综合成本/元	电力总碳排量/t	2020—2050年发电碳排减少量/t	新能源制氢减排总量/t
1	1.4296×10¹⁰	8.1523×10⁸	1.5111×10¹⁰	1.7909×10⁹	2.41488×10⁷	—
2	1.5083×10¹⁰	8.3701×10⁸	1.5921×10¹⁰	1.7909×10⁹	2.41488×10⁷	7.2927×10⁷
3	1.4680×10¹⁰	8.2015×10⁸	1.5499×10¹⁰	1.7349×10⁹	2.8421×10⁷	7.2927×10⁷

场景	投资成本/元	运维成本/元	综合成本/元	电力总碳排量/t	2020—2050年发电碳排减少量/t	新能源制氢减排总量/t
1	1.4296×10¹⁰	8.1523×10⁸	1.5111×10¹⁰	1.7909×10⁹	2.41488×10⁷	—
2	1.5083×10¹⁰	8.3701×10⁸	1.5921×10¹⁰	1.7909×10⁹	2.41488×10⁷	7.2927×10⁷
3	1.4680×10¹⁰	8.2015×10⁸	1.5499×10¹⁰	1.7349×10⁹	2.8421×10⁷	7.2927×10⁷

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