Model and Algorithm of the Robust Generation Schedule Based on Confidence Risk Measurement

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201902078

Abstract

Abstract: Aiming at the uncertainty and operational risk of grid operation scheduling brought about by large-scale wind power integration, a new confidence-risk-measurement-based model and its solution algorithm is proposed for robust generation schedule. The paper firstly proposes a new risk measurement, namely confidence risk measurement (Risk_α). For a given confidence level α and the corresponding wind power forecasting interval, the sum of the risk of wind curtailment and the risk of load shedding constitutes the confidence comprehensive risk measurement, which can be used for quantifying the risk caused by actual wind power surpassing the acceptable wind power threshold. And then, taking the sum of generation cost and confidence risk minimum as optimization objective, a new robust generation schedule model and its decomposition algorithm are proposed to simultaneously optimize the generator unit portfolio decision-making and the wind power acceptable threshold, thus making the formulated generation schedule achieve a balance between economy and operational risk. A case study has proved the correctness and effectiveness of the proposed model and algorithm.

Key words: robust generation schedule, wind power, confidence risk measurement, conditional error, wind power acceptable threshold

LI Pengfei, HOU Yanqiu, ZOU Jiaxin, ZHANG Shujie, LI Pai, LIN Jikeng. Model and Algorithm of the Robust Generation Schedule Based on Confidence Risk Measurement[J]. Electric Power, 2020, 53(12): 190-197.

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URL: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201902078

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/Y2020/V53/I12/190

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