Electrical Coal Demand Forecasting Model and Case Studies Based on Improved X-12-ARIMA

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.2014.2.140.5

Abstract

Abstract: Considering the floating holiday effects of China’s Spring Festival, the Dragon Boat Festival and the Mid-Autumn Festival, the improvement and corresponding case studies are put forward on the X-12-ARIMA model developed by the U.S. Census Bureau. The case study results show that electrical coal consumption is characterized by apparent seasonal patterns. Each year the highest peak of the consumption happens in the period of “November-December” while the small peak appears in the period of “July-August”. As for January, February and March in 2013, the forecasting accuracies of the improved model based on X-12-ARIMA are 96.6%, 95.1% and 93.7%, respectively, which demonstrates its satisfactory performance in short-term forecasting.

Key words: X-12-ARIMA model, electrical coal demand, seasonal adjustment, forecast

CLC Number:

TM715

ZHU Fa-gen. Electrical Coal Demand Forecasting Model and Case Studies Based on Improved X-12-ARIMA[J]. Electric Power, 2014, 47(2): 140-145.

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URL: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.2014.2.140.5

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/Y2014/V47/I2/140

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