考虑运行风险的新型配电系统多元时空灵活性资源协同配置

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202502060

中国电力 ›› 2025, Vol. 58 ›› Issue (12): 73-85.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202502060

• 协同海量分布式灵活性资源的韧性城市能源系统关键技术 • 上一篇

考虑运行风险的新型配电系统多元时空灵活性资源协同配置

贾东梨¹(), 刘佳静¹(), 詹惠瑜¹(), 王焕昌¹^,²(), 卜强生³()

1. 中国电力科学研究院有限公司，北京　100192
2. 中国农业大学信息与电气工程学院，北京　100083
3. 国网江苏省电力有限公司电力科学研究院，江苏南京　211103

收稿日期:2025-02-25 修回日期:2025-11-06 发布日期:2025-12-27 出版日期:2025-12-28
作者简介:
贾东梨（1982），女，硕士，高级工程师（教授级），从事配电网运行分析研究，E-mail：jiadl@epri.sgcc.com.cn
刘佳静（1998），女，硕士，助理工程师，从事配电网智能计算与数据分析研究，E-mail：liujiajing@epri.sgcc.com.cn
詹惠瑜（1994），女，硕士，工程师，从事配电网多时间尺度运行状态分析、优化控制及故障诊断研究，E-mail：zhanhy@epri.sgcc.com.cn
王焕昌（1998），男，通信作者，硕士研究生，从事配电网优化规划与运行研究，E-mail：whc@cau.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家电网有限公司科技项目（5400-202355555A-3-2-ZN）。

Collaborative Configuration of Multi-temporal and Spatial Flexible Resources in New Distribution Systems Considering Operational Risks

JIA Dongli¹(), LIU Jiajing¹(), ZHAN Huiyu¹(), WANG Huanchang¹^,²(), BU Qiangsheng³()

1. China Electric Power Research Institute, Beijing 100192, China
2. College of Information and Electrical Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China
3. State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Co., Ltd. Research Institute, Nanjing 211103, China

Received:2025-02-25 Revised:2025-11-06 Online:2025-12-27 Published:2025-12-28
Supported by:
This work is supported by Science and Technology Project of SGCC (No.5400-202355555A-3-2-ZN).

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

高比例可再生能源并网和多样化负荷接入加剧了新型配电系统高运行成本和高电压偏差运行风险。针对目前新型配电系统配置阶段未在多时间尺度下考虑运行风险和多元时空灵活性资源协同配置的问题，提出考虑运行风险的新型配电系统多元时空灵活性资源协同配置模型。首先，采用蒙特卡洛抽样和K-means聚类算法生成源-荷场景集，并利用多尺度形态学算法对源-荷曲线波形进行多尺度分解；然后，基于条件风险价值（conditional value at risk，CVaR）理论量化评估配电系统多时间尺度运行风险，并在此基础上建立考虑运行风险的新型配电系统多元时空灵活性资源双层配置模型。其中，上层以配电系统年综合成本最小为目标函数对多元时空灵活性资源进行协同配置，下层以期望损失值和基于CVaR的运行风险值最小为目标对系统进行运行优化。最后，通过改进的IEEE 33节点系统进行算例分析，结果表明：所提方法可以有效降低配电系统高运行成本和高电压偏差的运行风险。

关键词: 灵活性资源, 多时间尺度, 新型配电系统, 运行风险, 形态学算法

Abstract:

The high proportion of renewable energy integration and diversified load connections have exacerbated the operational risks of high operating costs and high voltage deviations in new distribution systems. To address the issue that the current new distribution system does not consider the operational risks and the collaborative configuration of multi-temporal and spatial flexible resources across multiple time scales during the configuration phases, this paper proposes a collaborative configuration model for multi-temporal and spatial flexible resources considering operational risks. Firstly, a source-load scenario set is generated using Monte Carlo sampling and the K-means clustering algorithm, and the multi-scale morphological algorithm is employed to decompose the source-load curve waveforms at multiple scales. Then, based on the conditional value at risk (CVaR) theory, a quantitative assessment of the multi-temporal operational risks in the distribution system is conducted. On this basis, a bi-level configuration model for multi-temporal and spatial flexible resources considering operational risks is established. In this model, the upper level aims to minimize the annual total cost of the distribution system for collaborative configuration of the multi-temporal and spatial flexible resources, while the lower level focuses on minimizing the expected loss value and the CVaR-based operational risk value for system optimization. Finally, an improved IEEE 33-node system is used for case study, validating the proposed method can effectively reduce the operational risks related to high operating costs and voltage deviations in the distribution systems.

Key words: flexible resources, multi-time scale, new distribution system, operational risk, morphological algorithm

贾东梨, 刘佳静, 詹惠瑜, 王焕昌, 卜强生. 考虑运行风险的新型配电系统多元时空灵活性资源协同配置[J]. 中国电力, 2025, 58(12): 73-85.

JIA Dongli, LIU Jiajing, ZHAN Huiyu, WANG Huanchang, BU Qiangsheng. Collaborative Configuration of Multi-temporal and Spatial Flexible Resources in New Distribution Systems Considering Operational Risks[J]. Electric Power, 2025, 58(12): 73-85.

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图/表 14

参考文献 32

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灵活性资源		特性分析	适合参与调节的时间尺度
上级主网		多为燃煤机组供电，调节速率较慢	15 min~1 h
GT	FTGT	调节速率较快，快速启停，频繁启停下仍能保持可靠性和耐久性	1~30 min
GT	MGT	调节速率较慢，启停较快，但耐受应力能力差，不能频繁启停	15 min~1 h
ESS	SC	可快速动态响应、循环寿命长、充放电效率高，但容量密度较小	1~15 min
ESS	BES	容量密度大、造价低，但响应速度慢，循环寿命短	15~30 min
DR	IE	需要提前与用户签订合同进行约束，响应速度较快，但其调节资源的大小与用户用电负荷有关	1~15 min

灵活性资源		特性分析	适合参与调节的时间尺度
上级主网		多为燃煤机组供电，调节速率较慢	15 min~1 h
GT	FTGT	调节速率较快，快速启停，频繁启停下仍能保持可靠性和耐久性	1~30 min
GT	MGT	调节速率较慢，启停较快，但耐受应力能力差，不能频繁启停	15 min~1 h
ESS	SC	可快速动态响应、循环寿命长、充放电效率高，但容量密度较小	1~15 min
ESS	BES	容量密度大、造价低，但响应速度慢，循环寿命短	15~30 min
DR	IE	需要提前与用户签订合同进行约束，响应速度较快，但其调节资源的大小与用户用电负荷有关	1~15 min

参数	数值	参数	数值
d/%	8	BES ${e_{{\text{ESS}},{\text{unit}}}}$/(kW·h)	10
FTGT ${c_{{\text{GT}}}}$/(元·kW^–1)	2200	${s_{{\text{SOP}},{\text{unit}}}}$/kW	10
CCGT ${c_{{\text{GT}}}}$/(元·kW^–1)	2500	FTGT ${S_{ {\text{GT,max}}}}$/kW	1000
SC ${c_{{\text{ESSE}}}}$/(元·(kW·h)^–1)	12500	CCGT ${S_{ {\text{GT,max}}}}$/kW	2000
SC ${c_{{\text{ESSP}}}}$/(元·kW^–1)	1500	SC ${P_{{\text{ESS}},{\text{max}}}}$/kW	500
BES ${c_{{\text{ESSE}}}}$/(元·(kW·h)^–1)	3000	BES ${P_{{\text{ESS}},{\text{max}}}}$/kW	600
BES ${c_{{\text{ESSP}}}}$/(元·kW^–1)	1800	SC ${S_{ {\text{ESS}},{\text{max}}}}$/(kW·h)	1000
${c_{{\text{SOP}}}}$/(元·(kV·A)^–1)	1000	BES ${S_{ {\text{ESS}},{\text{max}}}}$/(kW·h)	2000
FTGT ${y_{{\text{GT}}}}$/年	15	${S_{ {\text{SOP}},{\text{max}}}}$/(kV·A)	800
CCGT ${y_{{\text{GT}}}}$/年	20	CCGT ${t_{{\text{GT}},\rm D}}$/h	1
SC ${y_{{\text{ESS}}}}$/年	20	FTGT ${t_{{\text{GT}},\rm D}}$/h	0.5
BES ${y_{{\text{ESS}}}}$/年	10	CCGT ${t_{{\text{GT}},\rm U}}$/h	2
$ y_{\rm SOP} $/年	20	FTGT ${t_{{\text{GT}},\rm U}}$/h	1
${\mu _{{\text{GT}}}}$	0.01	FTGT ${\eta _{{\text{GT}}}}$	0.4
${\mu _{{\text{ESS}}}}$	0.01	CCGT ${\eta _{{\text{GT}}}}$	0.45
${\mu _{{\text{SOP}}}}$	0.01	$R_{{\text{Grid}}}^ + $/(kW·h^–1)	4000
FTGT ${S_{ {\text{GT}}}}_{{\text{,unit}}}$/kW	10	$R_{{\text{Grid}}}^ - $/(kW·h^–1)	3000
CCGT ${S_{ {\text{GT}}}}_{{\text{,unit}}}$/kW	10	FTGT $R_{_{{\text{GT}}}}^ + $/(kW·h^–1)	1800
SC ${p_{{\text{ESS}},{\text{unit}}}}$/kW	10	FTGT $R_{{{\text{GT}}}}^ - $/(kW·h^–1)	1080
BES $ {p_{{\text{ESS}},{\text{unit}}}} $/kW	10	CCGT $R_{{\text{GT}}}^ + $/(kW·h^–1)	1200
SC $ {e_{{\text{ESS}},{\text{unit}}}} $/(kW·h)	10	CCGT $R_{{\text{GT}}}^ - $/(kW·h^–1)	800
$ {R_{{\text{IE}}}} $/(kW·h)	900	${P_{{\text{DR}},{\text{max}}}}$/kW	300
SC $ {\eta _{{\text{ch}}}} $	0.95	${U_{{\text{th}},{\text{max}}}}$	1.03
SC $ {\eta _{{\text{dch}}}} $	0.95	${U_{{\text{th}},{\text{min}}}}$	0.97
BES $ {\eta _{{\text{ch}}}} $	0.9	$ {c_{{\text{loss}}}} $/(元·(kW·h)^–1)	0.35
BES $ {\eta _{{\text{dch}}}} $	0.9	$ {c_{{\text{ab}}}} $/(元·(kW·h)^–1)	0.36
SC $ {E_{{\text{ESS}},{\text{max}}}} $	0.95	$ {c_{{\text{DR}}}} $/(元·(kW·h)^–1)	0.36
SC $ {E_{{\text{ESS}},{\text{min}}}} $	0.05	$ {c_{{\text{gas}}}} $/(元·m^–3)	2.91
BES $ {E_{{\text{ESS}},{\text{max}}}} $	0.90	CCGT $ {\eta _{{\text{GT}}}} $/(kW·m^–3)	0.4
BES $ {E_{{\text{ESS}},{\text{min}}}} $	0.10	FTGT $ {\eta _{{\text{GT}}}} $/(kW·m^–3)	0.35
$ {P_{{\text{Grid}},{\text{max}}}} $/kW	2000

参数	数值	参数	数值
d/%	8	BES ${e_{{\text{ESS}},{\text{unit}}}}$/(kW·h)	10
FTGT ${c_{{\text{GT}}}}$/(元·kW^–1)	2200	${s_{{\text{SOP}},{\text{unit}}}}$/kW	10
CCGT ${c_{{\text{GT}}}}$/(元·kW^–1)	2500	FTGT ${S_{ {\text{GT,max}}}}$/kW	1000
SC ${c_{{\text{ESSE}}}}$/(元·(kW·h)^–1)	12500	CCGT ${S_{ {\text{GT,max}}}}$/kW	2000
SC ${c_{{\text{ESSP}}}}$/(元·kW^–1)	1500	SC ${P_{{\text{ESS}},{\text{max}}}}$/kW	500
BES ${c_{{\text{ESSE}}}}$/(元·(kW·h)^–1)	3000	BES ${P_{{\text{ESS}},{\text{max}}}}$/kW	600
BES ${c_{{\text{ESSP}}}}$/(元·kW^–1)	1800	SC ${S_{ {\text{ESS}},{\text{max}}}}$/(kW·h)	1000
${c_{{\text{SOP}}}}$/(元·(kV·A)^–1)	1000	BES ${S_{ {\text{ESS}},{\text{max}}}}$/(kW·h)	2000
FTGT ${y_{{\text{GT}}}}$/年	15	${S_{ {\text{SOP}},{\text{max}}}}$/(kV·A)	800
CCGT ${y_{{\text{GT}}}}$/年	20	CCGT ${t_{{\text{GT}},\rm D}}$/h	1
SC ${y_{{\text{ESS}}}}$/年	20	FTGT ${t_{{\text{GT}},\rm D}}$/h	0.5
BES ${y_{{\text{ESS}}}}$/年	10	CCGT ${t_{{\text{GT}},\rm U}}$/h	2
$ y_{\rm SOP} $/年	20	FTGT ${t_{{\text{GT}},\rm U}}$/h	1
${\mu _{{\text{GT}}}}$	0.01	FTGT ${\eta _{{\text{GT}}}}$	0.4
${\mu _{{\text{ESS}}}}$	0.01	CCGT ${\eta _{{\text{GT}}}}$	0.45
${\mu _{{\text{SOP}}}}$	0.01	$R_{{\text{Grid}}}^ + $/(kW·h^–1)	4000
FTGT ${S_{ {\text{GT}}}}_{{\text{,unit}}}$/kW	10	$R_{{\text{Grid}}}^ - $/(kW·h^–1)	3000
CCGT ${S_{ {\text{GT}}}}_{{\text{,unit}}}$/kW	10	FTGT $R_{_{{\text{GT}}}}^ + $/(kW·h^–1)	1800
SC ${p_{{\text{ESS}},{\text{unit}}}}$/kW	10	FTGT $R_{{{\text{GT}}}}^ - $/(kW·h^–1)	1080
BES $ {p_{{\text{ESS}},{\text{unit}}}} $/kW	10	CCGT $R_{{\text{GT}}}^ + $/(kW·h^–1)	1200
SC $ {e_{{\text{ESS}},{\text{unit}}}} $/(kW·h)	10	CCGT $R_{{\text{GT}}}^ - $/(kW·h^–1)	800
$ {R_{{\text{IE}}}} $/(kW·h)	900	${P_{{\text{DR}},{\text{max}}}}$/kW	300
SC $ {\eta _{{\text{ch}}}} $	0.95	${U_{{\text{th}},{\text{max}}}}$	1.03
SC $ {\eta _{{\text{dch}}}} $	0.95	${U_{{\text{th}},{\text{min}}}}$	0.97
BES $ {\eta _{{\text{ch}}}} $	0.9	$ {c_{{\text{loss}}}} $/(元·(kW·h)^–1)	0.35
BES $ {\eta _{{\text{dch}}}} $	0.9	$ {c_{{\text{ab}}}} $/(元·(kW·h)^–1)	0.36
SC $ {E_{{\text{ESS}},{\text{max}}}} $	0.95	$ {c_{{\text{DR}}}} $/(元·(kW·h)^–1)	0.36
SC $ {E_{{\text{ESS}},{\text{min}}}} $	0.05	$ {c_{{\text{gas}}}} $/(元·m^–3)	2.91
BES $ {E_{{\text{ESS}},{\text{max}}}} $	0.90	CCGT $ {\eta _{{\text{GT}}}} $/(kW·m^–3)	0.4
BES $ {E_{{\text{ESS}},{\text{min}}}} $	0.10	FTGT $ {\eta _{{\text{GT}}}} $/(kW·m^–3)	0.35
$ {P_{{\text{Grid}},{\text{max}}}} $/kW	2000

模式	FTGT（节点）容量/kW	MGT（节点）容量/kW	BES（节点）容量/（kW, kW·h）	SC（节点）容量/（kW, kW·h）	SOP（位置）容量/（kV·A）	C_ESS,inv/ 万元	C_GT,inv/ 万元	C_SOP,inv/ 万元	C_ope/ 万元	年综合成本/万元
1									1507.5	1507.5
2	（15）320	（17）1200	（31）（330, 710）	（12）（420, 200）		65.7	38.8		1318.1	1422.6
3	（13）270	（13）1010	（13）（280, 680）	（13）（330, 180）	（TS5）500	58.7	32.7	50.9	1239.9	1382.2
4	（13）300	（13）1040	（13）（300, 720）	（13）（340, 300）	（TS5）500	61.9	34.2	50.9	1224.4	1371.4

考虑运行风险的新型配电系统多元时空灵活性资源协同配置

Collaborative Configuration of Multi-temporal and Spatial Flexible Resources in New Distribution Systems Considering Operational Risks

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优化结果	模式1	模式2	模式3	模式4
主网购电成本/万元	1162.1	786.4	762.1	747.5
网损成本/万元	31.6	28.4	25.1	24.6
GT运行成本/万元	0	279.5	238.4	251.5
DR补偿成本/万元	43.1	32.9	25.4	25.5
弃风成本/万元	74.4	11.1	18.5	12.4
总运行成本/万元	1310.9	1138.3	1069.5	1071.5
运行成本风险/万元	1507.5	1307.7	1225.6	1209.7
电压偏差风险	3.89	1.9	1.81	1.55

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模态框（Modal）标题

考虑运行风险的新型配电系统多元时空灵活性资源协同配置

Collaborative Configuration of Multi-temporal and Spatial Flexible Resources in New Distribution Systems Considering Operational Risks

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

图/表 14

参考文献 32

相关文章 15

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Metrics