模糊分割多目标风险框架下电网连锁故障运行风险评估

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202311114

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在分析电网长期演化过程与短期演化过程区别的基础上，提出电网连锁故障运行风险概念，定量分析连锁故障长期风险与运行风险间的关系，建立电网连锁故障运行风险评估模型。利用蒙特卡洛法对给定初始运行方式的电网进行演化模拟，并引入模糊分割多目标风险框架建立评估指标体系。在IEEE 118节点系统中进行算例研究，分析了系统运行参数对给定运行方式下电网连锁故障运行风险的影响。

关键词: 连锁故障, 运行风险, 蒙特卡洛方法

Abstract:

On the basis of analyzing the difference between the long-term evolution process and the short-term evolution process of the power grid, the concept of power grid cascading failure operation risk is proposed, the relationship between the long-term risk of cascading failure and operation risk is quantitatively analyzed, and a power grid cascading failure operation risk assessment model is established. The Monte Carlo method is used to simulate the evolution of the power grid with a given initial operating mode, and a fuzzy segmentation multi-objective risk framework is introduced to establish an evaluation index system. An example study was conducted in the IEEE 118 node system to analyze the impact of system operating parameters on the risk of power grid cascading failure under a given operating mode.

Key words: cascading failure, operational risk, Monte Carlo method

莫石, 徐秋实, 卢子敬, 李子寿, 赵红生, 乔立, 罗超. 模糊分割多目标风险框架下电网连锁故障运行风险评估[J]. 中国电力, 2024, 57(2): 41-48.

Shi MO, Qiushi XU, Zijing LU, Zishou LI, Hongsheng ZHAO, Li QIAO, Chao LUO. Fuzzy Partitioned Multi-objective Risk Framework Based Operational Risk Assessment of Cascading Failure for Power Grid[J]. Electric Power, 2024, 57(2): 41-48.

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链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202311114

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2024/V57/I2/41

图/表 7

图 1 连锁故障仿真计算流程

Fig.1 The flowchart of the cascading failure simulation process

图 2 连锁故障负荷损失累积分布

Fig.2 Cumulative distribution of load loss due to cascading failure

图 3 模糊隶属度函数

Fig.3 The fuzzy membership function

图 4 负荷损失累积分布

Fig.4 Cumulative distribution of load loss

图 5 负荷损失运行风险指标值

Fig.5 Operation risk indexes of load loss

图 6 运行参数对系统连锁故障运行风险的影响

Fig.6 Influence of operation parameters on the cascading failure operation risk

图 7 指标收敛特性

Fig.7 Convergence curves of risk index

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