基于时变因素的光伏发电系统可靠性评估

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202102030

中国电力 ›› 2023, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (1): 158-165.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202102030

基于时变因素的光伏发电系统可靠性评估

朱林¹, 韩涛², 董颖华³, 余雅博⁴, 薛玉龙¹

1. 国网宁夏电力有限公司，宁夏银川 750001;
2. 国网宁夏电力有限公司中卫供电公司，宁夏中卫 755000;
3. 新能源与储能运行控制国家重点实验室（中国电力科学研究院），北京 100192;
4. 国网宁夏电力有限公司宁东供电公司，宁夏灵武 750004

收稿日期:2021-02-04 修回日期:2022-11-25 出版日期:2023-01-28 发布日期:2023-01-14
作者简介:朱林(1977-),男,高级工程师,从事新能源并网、配电自动化及信息化、配网运维检修管理、继电保护研究,E-mail:zhulin@nx.sgcc.com.cn;韩涛(1983-),男,硕士,高级工程师,从事变电、配网运维检修管理研究,E-mail:han1983@126.com;董颖华(1985-),男,通信作者,硕士,高级工程师,从事新能源并网发电评估与检测研究,E-mail:dongyinghua@epri.sgcc.com.cn
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划资助项目（2018YFB1500902）

Reliability Evaluation of Photovoltaic System Based on Time Varying Factors

ZHU Lin¹, HAN Tao², DONG Yinghua³, YU Yabo⁴, XUE Yulong¹

1. State Grid Ningxia Electric Power Co., Ltd., Yinchuan 750001, China;
2. State Grid Ningxia Zhongwei Power Supply Company, Zhongwei 755000, China;
3. State Key Laboratory of Operation and Control of Renewable Energy & Storage Systems (China Electric Power Research Institute), Beijing 100192, China;
4. State Grid Ningxia Ningdong Power Supply Company, Lingwu 750004, China

Received:2021-02-04 Revised:2022-11-25 Online:2023-01-28 Published:2023-01-14
Supported by:
This work is supported by National Key R&D Program of China (No.2018YFB1500902).

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 随着光伏发电的大规模发展，光伏电站的可靠性水平愈加受到重视。提出一种基于时变因素的光伏发电可靠性评估方法，通过分析光伏发电系统运行机理、元件失效模式及其对输出功率的影响，建立系统输出功率的概率模型，形成光伏系统可靠性评价指标，并构造光伏发电系统六状态空间模型。基于序贯蒙特卡洛方法，综合考虑气候条件、元件老化和光照强度，对某50 MW光伏电站运行可靠性进行评估。仿真结果表明，该模型及指标可有效反映系统的实际运行情况、出力水平和故障情况，为光伏电站运维提供支撑。

关键词: 光伏发电, 可靠性评估, 蒙特卡洛方法, 元件失效

Abstract: With the large-scale development of photovoltaic (PV) generations, the reliability level of PV stations has attracted more and more attention. A reliability evaluation method of photovoltaic generation is proposed based on time-varying factors. By analyzing the operation mechanism of PV generation system, the component failure mode and its impact on output power, a probabilistic model of system output power is proposed and the reliability evaluation indices of PV system are established, and a six-state space model of PV system is constructed as well. Based on the sequential Monte Carlo method, the operational reliability of a 50 MW PV station is evaluated with consideration the climate conditions, component aging and radiations. The simulation results show that the proposed model and indices can effectively reflect the actual operation state, output level and fault conditions of the system, which can provide support for the operation and maintenance of PV stations.

Key words: photovoltaic generation, reliability evaluation, Monte Carlo method, component failure

朱林, 韩涛, 董颖华, 余雅博, 薛玉龙. 基于时变因素的光伏发电系统可靠性评估[J]. 中国电力, 2023, 56(1): 158-165.

ZHU Lin, HAN Tao, DONG Yinghua, YU Yabo, XUE Yulong. Reliability Evaluation of Photovoltaic System Based on Time Varying Factors[J]. Electric Power, 2023, 56(1): 158-165.

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基于时变因素的光伏发电系统可靠性评估

Reliability Evaluation of Photovoltaic System Based on Time Varying Factors

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Reliability Evaluation of Photovoltaic System Based on Time Varying Factors

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