基于混合多属性决策方法的新能源电力系统灵活性资源调节能力综合评价

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202504063

中国电力 ›› 2025, Vol. 58 ›› Issue (11): 62-71, 87.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202504063

• 高比例新能源区域综合能源系统调度、控制与可靠性研究 • 上一篇下一篇

基于混合多属性决策方法的新能源电力系统灵活性资源调节能力综合评价

曹书仪¹(), 陶洪铸², 王强³, 礼晓飞⁴, 王蕾报⁵, 郭森¹()

1. 华北电力大学经济与管理学院，北京　102206
2. 国家电网有限公司，北京　100031
3. 国网河北省电力有限公司，河北石家庄　050021
4. 中国电力科学研究院有限公司，北京　100192
5. 国网河北省电力有限公司电力科学研究院，河北石家庄　050021

收稿日期:2025-04-25 修回日期:2025-05-09 发布日期:2025-12-01 出版日期:2025-11-28
作者简介:
曹书仪（1999），女，硕士研究生，从事新型电力系统灵活性、电碳市场研究，E-mail：caoshuyi99@163.com
郭森（1987），通信作者，男，博士，副教授，博士生导师，教研室主任，从事新型电力系统灵活性、电碳市场研究，E-mail：guosen324@163.com
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金资助项目（25BJY021）；国家电网有限公司科技项目（5108-202218280A-2-299-XG）。

Comprehensive Evaluation of Flexibility Resource Regulation Capability in New Energy Power Systems Based on Hybrid Multi-attribute Decision-making Methods

CAO Shuyi¹(), TAO Hongzhu², WANG Qiang³, LI Xiaofei⁴, WANG Leibao⁵, GUO Sen¹()

1. Department of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
2. State Grid Corporation of China, Beijing 100031, China
3. State Grid Hebei Electric Power Co., Ltd., Shijiazhuang 050021, China
4. China Electric Power Research Institute, Beijing 100192, China
5. State Grid Hebei Electric Power Company Electric Power Research Institute, Shijiazhuang 050021, China

Received:2025-04-25 Revised:2025-05-09 Online:2025-12-01 Published:2025-11-28
Supported by:
This work is supported by National Social Science Foundation of China (No.25BJY021); Science and Technology Project of State Grid Corporation of China (No.5108-202218280A-2-299-XG).

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

合理评估灵活性资源的调节能力，对于提升电力系统的灵活性以及建设高比例新能源接入的新型电力系统具有重要意义。从经济性和技术性2个维度，提出了新能源电力系统灵活性资源调节能力评价指标体系，基于熵权法和MARCOS相结合的混合多属性决策方法构建了新能源电力系统灵活性资源调节能力综合评价模型，并对4种典型的灵活性资源进行了评估，结果表明：爬坡速率、时间尺度调节能力、使用年限和机组调节范围是影响灵活性资源调节能力的关键因素；电化学储能的调节能力最优，气电调节能力最差。实证研究与敏感性分析验证了该模型的有效性和可行性。

关键词: 灵活性资源, 调节能力, 新能源电力系统, 熵权法, MARCOS方法

Abstract:

A reasonable assessment of the regulation capability of flexibility resources is of importance for enhancing the flexibility of power systems and constructing new-type power systems with high proportions of renewable energy integration. An evaluation indicator system for the regulation capability of flexibility resources in renewable energy power systems is established from both economic and technical dimensions. Furthermore, a comprehensive evaluation model for the regulation capability of flexibility resources is constructed based on the entropy weight method and the MARCOS method. Finally, four typical flexibility resources are evaluated. The results indicate that ramp rates, timescale regulation capability, service life, and unit regulation range are key factors influencing the flexibility resource regulation capability; electrochemical energy storage demonstrates the best regulation performance, while gas-fired power generation exhibits the poorest. Empirical research and sensitivity analysis validate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed model.

Key words: flexibility resource, regulation capability entropy, new energy power system, weight method, MARCOS method

曹书仪, 陶洪铸, 王强, 礼晓飞, 王蕾报, 郭森. 基于混合多属性决策方法的新能源电力系统灵活性资源调节能力综合评价[J]. 中国电力, 2025, 58(11): 62-71, 87.

CAO Shuyi, TAO Hongzhu, WANG Qiang, LI Xiaofei, WANG Leibao, GUO Sen. Comprehensive Evaluation of Flexibility Resource Regulation Capability in New Energy Power Systems Based on Hybrid Multi-attribute Decision-making Methods[J]. Electric Power, 2025, 58(11): 62-71, 87.

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链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202504063

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图/表 8

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目标层	一级指标	二级指标	类型	编号
灵活性资源调节能力	经济性指标	新建或改建投资成本	负向指标	S1
		可变成本	负向指标	S2
		使用年限	正向指标	S3
	技术性指标	爬坡速率	正向指标	S4
		启停时间	负向指标	S5
		机组调节范围	正向指标	S6
		调节时间尺度	正向指标	S7

目标层	一级指标	二级指标	类型	编号
灵活性资源调节能力	经济性指标	新建或改建投资成本	负向指标	S1
		可变成本	负向指标	S2
		使用年限	正向指标	S3
	技术性指标	爬坡速率	正向指标	S4
		启停时间	负向指标	S5
		机组调节范围	正向指标	S6
		调节时间尺度	正向指标	S7

指标	灵活性火电	气电	抽水蓄能	电化学储能
固定成本/(元·kW^–1)	650	3100	6900	1500
可变成本/(元·(kW·h)^–1)	0.2095	0.5700	0.2619	0.2465
使用年限/年	20	30	80	12
爬坡速率/(Pn·min^–1)	5%	8%	20%	100%
启停时间/h	4.500	2.000	0.420	0.017
机组调节范围/%	70	80	200	200
时间尺度调节能力	2	1	2	1

指标	灵活性火电	气电	抽水蓄能	电化学储能
固定成本/(元·kW^–1)	650	3100	6900	1500
可变成本/(元·(kW·h)^–1)	0.2095	0.5700	0.2619	0.2465
使用年限/年	20	30	80	12
爬坡速率/(Pn·min^–1)	5%	8%	20%	100%
启停时间/h	4.500	2.000	0.420	0.017
机组调节范围/%	70	80	200	200
时间尺度调节能力	2	1	2	1

指标	灵活性火电	气电	抽水蓄能	电化学储能
固定成本	1.0000	0.6080	0.0000	0.8640
可变成本	1.0000	0.0000	0.8546	0.8974
使用年限	0.1176	0.2647	1.0000	0.0000
爬坡速率	0.0000	0.0316	0.1579	1.0000
启停时间	0.0000	0.5577	0.9101	1.0000
机组调节范围	0.0000	0.0769	1.0000	1.0000
调节时间尺度	1.0000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000

基于混合多属性决策方法的新能源电力系统灵活性资源调节能力综合评价

Comprehensive Evaluation of Flexibility Resource Regulation Capability in New Energy Power Systems Based on Hybrid Multi-attribute Decision-making Methods

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图/表 8

参考文献 35

相关文章 15

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Metrics

编号	指标	熵值	权重	排序
S1	固定成本	0.7938	0.0831	6
S2	可变成本	0.8054	0.0784	7
S3	使用年限	0.5753	0.1710	3
S4	爬坡速率	0.3998	0.2417	1
S5	启停时间	0.7877	0.0855	5
S6	机组调节范围	0.6148	0.1551	4
S7	调节时间尺度	0.5401	0.1852	2

方案	K⁺	K^–	f(K_i)	排序
灵活性火电	0.456	2.058	0.438	3
气电	0.285	1.286	0.274	4
抽水蓄能	0.634	2.862	0.610	2
电化学储能	0.702	3.169	0.675	1

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模态框（Modal）标题

基于混合多属性决策方法的新能源电力系统灵活性资源调节能力综合评价

Comprehensive Evaluation of Flexibility Resource Regulation Capability in New Energy Power Systems Based on Hybrid Multi-attribute Decision-making Methods

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