以深远海风电为核心的能源岛能源外送经济性分析

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202401031

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

深远海风电具有资源丰富、利用小时数高、不占用陆上土地等优势，对于推动实现碳达峰碳中和具有重要意义。以深远海风电为核心的海上能源岛，通过“海上风电+”的融合发展模式，能够提高海域综合利用率，提升整体效益，降低开发成本。建设以深远海风电为核心的能源岛，涉及漂浮式海上风电等能源开发技术、电制氢（氨）等能源综合利用技术、柔性直流输电和管道输氢等能源外送技术。介绍以深远海风电为核心的能源岛总体构成，比较分析适用于深远海风电为核心的能源岛大规模能源外送的输电技术，分别测算了汇集1000 MW漂浮式海上风电的能源岛通过柔性直流送电的成本、电制氢后通过管道输氢的成本，并将输电成本与输氢成本进行了比较。通过比较分析，以深远海风电为核心的海上能源岛适宜选择柔性直流输电技术或者管道输氢作为能源外送方案。测算结果表明，在2023年、2030年和2050年，输送距离为100~200 km时柔性直流输电方案的经济性均要优于输氢方案；输电方案与输氢方案的选择需综合考虑成本和登陆地区的消纳能力；预计在2050年，离岸100~200 km不同比例的电氢混合外送综合成本在0.18~0.27元/(kW·h)之间，与西部北部风光新能源基地、西南水风光基地外送东部的成本相比具有竞争力。

关键词: 能源岛, 深远海风电, 柔性直流输电, 管道输氢, 经济性分析

Abstract:

Deep-sea wind power has the advantages of rich resources, high utilization hours, and no occupation of land onshore, which is of great significance for promoting the realization of the "double carbon" goal. The offshore energy island with deep-sea wind power as the core can, through the integrated development model of "offshore wind power +", improve the comprehensive utilization rate of sea areas, enhance overall efficiency, and reduce development costs. Construction of the offshore energy island involves energy development technologies such as floating offshore wind power, energy comprehensive utilization technologies such as AWE, energy transmission technologies such as VSC-HVDC transmission and hydrogen pipeline transmission. This paper first introduces the overall composition of the energy island with the deep-sea wind power as the core, and then analyzes the transmission technologies applicable to large-scale energy transmission of the energy island. The cost of the energy island with 1000 MW floating offshore wind power through VSC-HVDC power transmission and the cost of hydrogen transmission through pipeline are calculated respectively, and the power transmission cost is compared with the cost of hydrogen transport. As the comparative analysis indicates, both the VSC-HVDC technology and the hydrogen pipeline transmission technology can be used as the energy transmission solutions for the offshore energy island. An innovative research is carried out on the economics of energy delivery for energy island. According to calculations, in 2023, 2030, and 2050, when the transmission distance is 100 km to 200 km, the economic performance of the VSC-HVDC solution is better than that of the hydrogen transmission solution. The cost and absorption capacity of the landing area need to be comprehensively considered before choosing the power transmission solution or the hydrogen transmission solution. It is predicted that in 2050, the comprehensive cost of different proportions of mixed power and hydrogen transmission for a distance of 100 km to 200 km offshore is between 0.18 yuan/kW·h and 0.27 yuan/kW·h, which is competitive compared with the cost of power transmission from new energy bases in the western and northern regions to the eastern region.

Key words: energy island, deep-sea wind power, VSC-HVDC, hydrogen pipeline transmission, economic analysis

刘钟淇, 刘耀, 侯金鸣. 以深远海风电为核心的能源岛能源外送经济性分析[J]. 中国电力, 2024, 57(9): 94-102.

Zhongqi LIU, Yao LIU, Jinming HOU. Economic Analysis of Energy Transmission for Energy Island Based on Deep-Sea Offshore Wind Farms[J]. Electric Power, 2024, 57(9): 94-102.

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链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202401031

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2024/V57/I9/94

图/表 13

图 1 以海上风电为核心的能源岛立体示意

Fig.1 3 D diagram of energy island based on offshore wind power

图 2 以深远海风电为核心的能源岛关键技术体系

Fig.2 The key technology system of energy island based on deep-sea wind farms

图 3 能源岛能源流向示意

Fig.3 Energy flow diagram of energy island

图 4 基于不同输电技术的深远海风电外送示意

Fig.4 Schematic diagram of power transmission for deep-sea wind farms based on different transmission technologies

图 5 高压直流输电技术、柔性直流输电技术、低频交流输电技术的综合评估示意

Fig.5 Comprehensive assessment diagram of LCC-HVDC, VSC-HVDC，LFAC system

图 6 基于柔性直流技术的输电方案结构

Fig.6 Structure of power transmission scheme based on VSC-HVDC

表 1 基于柔性直流技术的输电方案参数和造价

Table 1 Parameters and cost of VSC-HVDC-based transmission scheme

设备名称	参数	造价/ 亿元
海上换流变（含升压变、阀体、直流断路器等）	35 kV/220 kV，容量180 MV·A的4组和容量240 MV·A的2组升压变 AC/DC：220 kV/±320 kV，1000 MW	9.95
直流海缆	100 km，1600 mm²，双回±320 kV	10.30
	150 km，1600 mm²，双回±320 kV	15.45
	200 km，1600 mm²，双回±320 kV	20.60
陆上换流变（含连接变、阀体、直流断路器等）	DC/AC：±320 kV/500 kV，1000 MW	8.80

表 2 柔性直流输电方案每年到岸送电量

Table 2 Onshore power supply per year based on VSC-HVDC

传输距离/km	年送电量/(亿kW·h)
传输距离/km	2023年	2030年	2050年
100	38.808	38.808	43.659
150	38.674	38.674	43.508
200	38.540	38.540	43.358

表 3 技术快速进步情景下能源岛采用柔性直流输电方案的成本

Table 3 Cost of VSC-HVDC transmission scheme for energy island under rapid technological progress scenario 单位：元/(kW·h)

项目	2023年	2030年	2050年
100 km输电成本	0.075	0.056	0.033
100 km到岸度电成本	0.715	0.336	0.173
150 km输电成本	0.089	0.067	0.040
150 km到岸度电成本	0.729	0.347	0.180
200 km输电成本	0.103	0.078	0.046
200 km到岸度电成本	0.743	0.358	0.186

表 4 考虑技术进步的电解水制氢相关参数

Table 4 Related parameters of hydrogen production by AWE considering technological progress

主要参数	2023年	2030年	2050年
AWE制氢效率/(kW·h·kg^–1)	57	55	—
PEMEC制氢效率/(kW·h·kg^–1)	—	50	45
AWE寿命/年	10	10	10
PEMEC寿命/年	10	10	10
AWE造价/(元·kW^–1)	2000	1000	—
PEMEC造价/(元·kW^–1)	—	5000	2000
电解槽综合造价/亿元	20	30	20

表 5 不同离岸传输距离的制氢与输氢总成本

Table 5 Total cost of hydrogen production and delivery for different offshore transport distances 单位：元/kg

项目	成本
项目	2023年	2030年	2050年
制氢+100 km管道	42.487	21.232	10.569
制氢+150 km管道	42.980	21.615	10.870
制氢+200 km管道	43.500	22.001	11.173

表 6 不同离岸输氢与输电方案的成本比较

Table 6 Cost comparison of hydrogen transmission and power transmission schemes for different offshore transport distances 单位：元/(kW·h)

外送方案	成本
外送方案	2023年	2030年	2050年
制氢+100 km管道	1.070	0.535	0.266
100 km柔性直流到岸	0.715	0.336	0.173
制氢+150 km管道	1.082	0.544	0.274
150 km柔性直流到岸	0.729	0.347	0.180
制氢+200 km管道	1.095	0.554	0.281
200 km柔性直流到岸	0.743	0.358	0.186

图 7 离岸200 km的电氢混合外送方案综合成本

Fig.7 The combined cost of the electricity-hydrogen hybrid delivery scheme for a 200-km offshore distance

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