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平价上网时代新能源发电经济性分析和发展趋势

Research on New Energy Economic Evaluation and Development Trend of New Energy Power Generation in Grid Parity Period

  • 摘要: 平价上网是推动中国新能源高质量发展的重要举措。总结梳理近年来新能源平价上网的政策要点,分析了平价上网时代新能源发电经济性的影响因素,建立了基于内部收益率的经济性分析方法和模型,以2020年全国分省分资源区的风电场、光伏电站和分布式光伏的经济性测算为案例,研究不同地区新能源发电项目在平价条件下的内部收益率水平。在此基础上,分析平价上网时代新能源开发规模、开发布局、运行消纳、市场竞争等关键问题,研判未来中国新能源发展趋势。

     

    Abstract: Grid parity is an important measure to promote the high-quality development of new energy in China. This paper summarized and combed the current related policies of grid parity in recent years, analyzed the main influencing factors of new energy economics in grid parity period, established the evaluating model based on IRR methodology. Taking wind power, concentrated and distributed PV power in different resource areas as a case study, the economics of new energy in 2020 in grid parity was studied. On the basis, some key issues such as developing scale, distribution, operation dispatch and consumption, market completion, as well as the future developing trend of new energy in China were analyzed in grid parity.

     

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