关键词: 电力系统, 电能质量, 扰动评估, 云模型, 层次分析, 灰色聚类, 综合评价, 组合赋权

Abstract: The boundary value of disturbance classification levels is fuzzy and random. And the cloud model is an uncertain transformation model describing the qualitative concept and quantitative processing. By fully considering these characteristics and combining the advantages of cloud model such as uncertainty reasoning characteristics and matter element analysis theory, a synthetic disturbance evaluation model is proposed based on the theory of backward cloud matter element. The standard model is established with backward cloud generator for synthetic disturbance evaluation of power quality, and the model is constantly updated through real-time data analysis, which makes the disturbance evaluation model more realtime. According to the characteristics of the disturbance evaluation of power quality, the weights of all the indices in power quality synthetic evaluation are obtained by integrating three methods, including the analytic hierarchy process method, the grey cluster method and the entropy method, which makes the disturbance evaluation result more credible. The superiority and effectiveness of the model are demonstrated by using the results of the actual numerical tests in the IF furnace of metal factory and the traction substations.

Key words: power system, power quality, disturbance evaluation, cloud model, analytic hierarchy process(AHP), grey cluster, synthetic evaluation, combination weighing