关键词: 场景生成, 不确定性, 生成对抗网络, 水风光互补, 中长期优化调度, 动态权重

Abstract:

With the continuous increase of wind-solar penetration, how to address the volatility and uncertainty of their power output and formulate reasonable medium- and long-term scheduling strategies has become the core challenge for the efficient operation of inter-basin hydro-wind-solar hybrid systems. To this end, this study firstly proposes a wind-solar joint scenario generation method considering spatio-temporal correlation. By improving the network structure of the Wasserstein generative adversarial network (WGAN), the model can hierarchically extract the spatio-temporal coupling characteristics of wind-solar power output, and generate a representative joint scenario set. On this basis, with the objectives of maximizing the expected energy consumption of the complementary system, minimizing the curtailment and power shortage, and minimizing the loss of spilled water, an adaptive weight determination method based on feedback regulation is proposed to dynamically adjust the priority of each objective in different time periods, and a medium- and long-term multi-objective stochastic optimization model for inter-basin hydro-wind-solar hybrid systems is constructed. A simulation analysis is carried out by taking an inter-basin clean energy base in the Southwest region as an example. The results show that, compared with conventional methods, the proposed method improves the consumption level of new energy and the power supply reliability of the system while considering the utilization of water resources in basins; the comprehensive power curtailment rate and power shortage risk are reduced by 1.53 percentage points and 24.5% respectively, achieving collaborative optimization and effective balance among multiple objectives.

Key words: scenario generation, uncertainty, generative adversarial network, hydro-wind-solar complementary system, medium- and long-term optimal scheduling, dynamic weight