考虑成本不确定性的发电企业低碳技术采纳决策优化研究

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202403055

中国电力 ›› 2025, Vol. 58 ›› Issue (5): 62-73.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202403055

考虑成本不确定性的发电企业低碳技术采纳决策优化研究

檀勤良¹^,²^,³(), 贺嘉明¹(), 吕函谕¹(), 丁毅宏⁴()

1. 华北电力大学经济与管理学院，北京　102206
2. 北京市能源发展研究基地，北京　102206
3. 新能源电力与低碳发展研究北京市重点实验室，北京　102206
4. 华北电力大学国家能源发展战略研究院，北京，102206

收稿日期:2024-03-14 发布日期:2025-05-30 出版日期:2025-05-28
作者简介:
檀勤良（1969），男，博士，教授，从事能源环境建模与优化、资源管理与政策、决策分析与运作管理等研究，E-mail：tan.qinliang1@gmail.com
贺嘉明（1998），男，博士研究生，从事能源建模与优化研究，E-mail：He_1028_BABat@163.com
吕函谕（2001），女，硕士研究生，从事能源建模与优化研究，E-mail：lvhanyv2023@126.com
丁毅宏（1995），男，博士，通信作者，从事能源环境建模与优化研究，E-mail：dingyh0528@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目（“双碳”目标下发电企业低碳技术创新扩散及其产业链协同演化机制研究，72272050）；国家自然科学基金青年科学基金资助项目（电-碳-绿证市场耦合下电力系统低碳转型与协同优化研究，72304097）。

Optimization of Low-Carbon Technology Adoption Decision for Generation Enterprises Considering Cost Uncertainty

TAN Qinliang¹^,²^,³(), HE Jiaming¹(), LV Hanyu¹(), DING Yihong⁴()

1. School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
2. Research Center for Beijing Energy Development, Beijing 102206, China
3. Beijing Key Laboratory of Renewable Electric Power and Low Carbon Development, Beijing 102206, China
4. National Institute of Energy Development Strategy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China

Received:2024-03-14 Online:2025-05-30 Published:2025-05-28
Supported by:
This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Research on the Mechanism of Low-Carbon Technology Innovation Diffusion and Industrial Chain Co-evolution of Power Generation Enterprises Under "30·60" Target, NO.72272050), National Natural Science Foundation of China for Young Scholars (Research on Low-Carbon Transformation and Collaborative Optimization of Power System Under the Coupling of Electricity-Carbon-Green Certificate Market, NO.72304097).

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为研究发电企业主动践行“双碳”目标而面临的多类型低碳技术成本不确定性条件下的投资决策优化问题，以发电企业中长期时间尺度的决策优化为研究视角，考虑投资周期内各项技术的成本不确定性，构建期望出力-装机两阶段鲁棒模型。第1阶段以该企业运营净利润最大为目标；第2阶段考虑各项技术投入的成本不确定性，以第1阶段给出的期望出力情况作为约束，综合考虑企业年度投资强度与全投资计划周期的投资限额总数，追求总投资成本最小。将第2阶段模型进行鲁棒对等，转化为一个等价的线性化模型以便于求解，并采用列和约束生成算法对该两阶段问题进行求解。通过不同情景下的发电企业电源结构演化情况对比，为发电企业采纳低碳技术提供了借鉴。

关键词: 低碳技术, 技术采纳, 不确定性, 两阶段决策, 投资决策, C&CG算法

Abstract:

To investigate the investment decision optimization issue under the condition of uncertain cost of multiple types of low-carbon technologies faced by power generation enterprises to actively achieve the goal of "dual carbon", this paper takes the medium- and long-term time-scale decision-making optimization of independent power generation enterprises as the research perspective. Considering the cost uncertainty of various technologies within the investment period, a two-stage robust model is constructed based on the expected output and installed capacity. In the first stage, the objective is to maximize the net profit of the enterprise's operations. In the second stage, the cost uncertainty of various technology investments and the expected output provided in the first stage are considered as constraints. A comprehensive consideration of the annual investment intensity of the enterprise and the total investment limit for the investment plan period is made to minimize the total investment cost. The second-stage model is transformed into an equivalent linearized model for subsequent solving of the problem in a robust equivalent form. The column-and-constraint generation algorithm is employed to solve the two-stage problem. The effectiveness of the proposed model is verified by comparing the evolution of the power generation company's power structure under different scenarios, which can provide valuable insights for power generation companies adopting low-carbon technologies.

Key words: low-carbon technology, technology adoption, uncertainty, two-stage decision, investment decision, C&CG algorithm

檀勤良, 贺嘉明, 吕函谕, 丁毅宏. 考虑成本不确定性的发电企业低碳技术采纳决策优化研究[J]. 中国电力, 2025, 58(5): 62-73.

TAN Qinliang, HE Jiaming, LV Hanyu, DING Yihong. Optimization of Low-Carbon Technology Adoption Decision for Generation Enterprises Considering Cost Uncertainty[J]. Electric Power, 2025, 58(5): 62-73.

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链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202403055

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2025/V58/I5/62

图/表 14

图 1 系统架构

Fig.1 System layout

图 2 求解算法流程

Fig.2 Procedure of the solution algorithm

图 3 碳排放价格模拟结果

Fig.3 Simulation result of the carbon emissions price

图 4 平准化电价模拟结果

Fig.4 Simulation result of levelized cost of electricity

图 5 氢燃料价格模拟结果

Fig.5 Simulation result of hydrogen fuels price

图 6 各阶段投资水平限额示意

Fig.6 Investment bound in each stage

表 1 各类技术当前投资成本水平

Table 1 Current investment cost of each technology

模块	技术	单位成本
发电	光伏发电	1013.7 万元/MW
	风力发电	915.8 万元/MW
	水力发电	1801.8 万元/MW
	火力发电	2133.1 万元/MW
储能	抽水蓄能	1848 万元/MW
	电池储能	1106 万元/MW
	热储能	39.9 万元/MW
	重力储能	1448.0 万元/MW
降碳	EOR技术	0.05 万元/t
	MET技术	35.7 万元/t
	ALK技术	599.2 万元/MW
	PEM技术	1199.8 万元/MW

表 2 情景设定

Table 2 Scenario explanations

情景	碳中和年份	投资收益率/%	发电份额占比/%	额外投资决策条件
0	2060	6	100	无
1	2050	6	100	无
2	2060	6	75	无水电/抽蓄
3	2050	6	75	无水电/抽蓄

图 7 原始情景各电源机组年度装机量和全年发电量

Fig.7 Annual installed capacity and energy for each energy source under the original scenario

图 8 原始情景下各储能机组装机规模情况

Fig.8 Installed capacity of energy storage under the original scenario

图 9 年度投资金额分布

Fig.9 Distribution of annual investment

图 10 不同碳中和情景下投资成本与环境效益对比

Fig.10 Comparison of the investment costs and environmental benefits under different neutrality scenarios

图 11 不同水电情景下电源和储能技术总投资对比

Fig.11 Comparison of the investment of energy sources and storage technologies under different pumped-water scenarios

图 12 情景2和3下各类电源占比分布情况

Fig.12 Comparison of the distribution of multiple energy sources under scenario 2 and 3

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考虑成本不确定性的发电企业低碳技术采纳决策优化研究

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考虑成本不确定性的发电企业低碳技术采纳决策优化研究

Optimization of Low-Carbon Technology Adoption Decision for Generation Enterprises Considering Cost Uncertainty

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