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考虑成本不确定性的发电企业低碳技术采纳决策优化研究

Optimization of Low-Carbon Technology Adoption Decision for Generation Enterprises Considering Cost Uncertainty

  • 摘要: 为研究发电企业主动践行“双碳”目标而面临的多类型低碳技术成本不确定性条件下的投资决策优化问题,以发电企业中长期时间尺度的决策优化为研究视角,考虑投资周期内各项技术的成本不确定性,构建期望出力-装机两阶段鲁棒模型。第1阶段以该企业运营净利润最大为目标;第2阶段考虑各项技术投入的成本不确定性,以第1阶段给出的期望出力情况作为约束,综合考虑企业年度投资强度与全投资计划周期的投资限额总数,追求总投资成本最小。将第2阶段模型进行鲁棒对等,转化为一个等价的线性化模型以便于求解,并采用列和约束生成算法对该两阶段问题进行求解。通过不同情景下的发电企业电源结构演化情况对比,为发电企业采纳低碳技术提供了借鉴。

     

    Abstract: To investigate the investment decision optimization issue under the condition of uncertain cost of multiple types of low-carbon technologies faced by power generation enterprises to actively achieve the goal of "dual carbon", this paper takes the medium- and long-term time-scale decision-making optimization of independent power generation enterprises as the research perspective. Considering the cost uncertainty of various technologies within the investment period, a two-stage robust model is constructed based on the expected output and installed capacity. In the first stage, the objective is to maximize the net profit of the enterprise's operations. In the second stage, the cost uncertainty of various technology investments and the expected output provided in the first stage are considered as constraints. A comprehensive consideration of the annual investment intensity of the enterprise and the total investment limit for the investment plan period is made to minimize the total investment cost. The second-stage model is transformed into an equivalent linearized model for subsequent solving of the problem in a robust equivalent form. The column-and-constraint generation algorithm is employed to solve the two-stage problem. The effectiveness of the proposed model is verified by comparing the evolution of the power generation company's power structure under different scenarios, which can provide valuable insights for power generation companies adopting low-carbon technologies.

     

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