碳配额约束下省级能源供需预测方法研究

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202410088

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

能源作为支撑国民经济发展的基础和碳减排的主战场，其未来供需发展情况对新型能源体系建设和“双碳”目标实现影响重大。考虑中国各省经济社会发展状况和能源消费结构等因素，构建了包含总量与相对指标、兼顾公平与效率的碳配额分配指标体系，提出了碳配额约束下省级能源供需预测方法，以实现一、二次能源分品种、分行业、全流程综合平衡分析预测。结合2030年中国碳达峰目标，以山东省为例进行了实证分析，验证了该方法的有效性，为各省控排减排和能源转型提供了参考。

关键词: 能源供需, 碳配额, 公平效率, 综合预测

Abstract:

Energy is the foundation of national economy and the main field for carbon reduction, and its future development of energy supply and demand has a significant impact on constructing the new energy systems and achieving the carbon peak and carbon neutralization targets. Considering multiple factors such as economic and social development status, energy consumption characteristics of each province, an indicator system for carbon quota allocation is constructed, encompassing aggregate and relative metrics, and balancing equity with efficiency, and a provincial-level energy supply-demand forcasting method under carbon quota constraints is proposed to achieve comprehensive balance analysis and prediction of primary and secondary energy of different varieties and industries covering the entire process. Based on China's carbon peak target in 2030, an empirical analysis is carried out with Shandong Province as an example to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, which provides a reference for different provinces in carbon emissions control and energy transformation.

Key words: energy supply and demand, carbon quotas, fairness and efficiency, synthetic forecasting

厉艳, 赵昕, 薛万磊, 谭显东, 刘知凡, 刘之琳. 碳配额约束下省级能源供需预测方法研究[J]. 中国电力, 2025, 58(5): 52-61.

LI Yan, ZHAO Xin, XUE Wanlei, TAN Xiandong, LIU Zhifan, LIU Zhilin. A Forecasting Method for Provincial-level Energy Supply and Demand under Carbon Quota Constraint[J]. Electric Power, 2025, 58(5): 52-61.

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链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202410088

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2025/V58/I5/52

图/表 10

图 1 模型架构

Fig.1 Model structure

表 1 分配准则及指标

Table 1 Allocation criteria and indicators

准则	类型	指标	指标含义
公平准则	总量指标	人口	年末常住人口
		GDP	GDP数值
		能源消费总量	煤、油、气等消费总量
效率准则	相对指标	单位能源消费产出	GDP/能源消费总量
效率准则	相对指标	单位碳排能耗	能源消费总量/碳排放量

图 2 能源供需预测流程

Fig.2 Forcasting flow of energy supply and demand

表 2 聚类中心

Table 2 Cluster center

聚类指标	G1	G2	G3	G4	G5
人口/万人	10479	8794	4316	5117	2747
GDP/亿元	103651	62559	24009	40748	14106
能源消费总量/万t	33334	28694	23195	14393	9219
单位能源消费产出/(亿元·万t^–1)	3.11	2.31	1.11	3.03	1.58
单位碳排能耗/ (t标准煤·万t^–1)	5327	4882	3979	4613	4997

表 3 30省（市、自治区）聚类结果

Table 3 Clustering results of 30 provinces

分组	省级区划名称	主要特点	碳配额占比/%
G1	广东、江苏	总量和效率均最高	16.6
G2	浙江、山东、河南	总量较高，效率中等偏上	21.3
G3	河北、山西、内蒙古、辽宁、陕西	总量中等，效率最低	12.1
G4	北京、上海、安徽、福建、湖北、湖南、四川	总量中等偏下，效率较高	20.2
G5	天津、吉林、黑龙江、江西、广西、海南、重庆、贵州、云南、陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏	总量最低，效率中等	29.8

图 3 2030年各省碳配额分配结果

Fig.3 Carbon quota allocation results by province in 2030

图 4 2030年山东能（碳）流（深度脱碳情景）

Fig.4 Energy (carbon) flow of Shandong Province in 2030 (deep decarbonization scenario)

图 5 2030年山东省终端及一次能源消费结构

Fig.5 Terminal and primary energy consumption structure of Shandong province in 2030

图 6 2030年山东省电源装机结构

Fig.6 Power generation structure of Shandong province in 2030

图 7 2030年山东省能源活动碳排放情况（深度脱碳情景）

Fig.7 Carbon emissions from energy activities of Shandong Province in 2030 (deep decarbonization scenario)

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