绿证-碳-CCER市场交易主体协同效应

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202410082

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为实现“双碳”目标，研究市场扩容背景下火力发电商在绿证市场、碳市场与中国核证自愿减排量（chinese certified emission reduction，CCER）市场下的多主体交易协同效应。构建火力发电商在多市场联合下的交易框架，并基于多主体非合作博弈模型分析市场扩容下的控排企业协同作用及减排影响，采用经验模态分解（empirical mode decomposition，EMD）结合支持向量机（support vector machine，SVM）模型预测碳排放权交易量，为博弈模型提供关键参数支持。研究结果表明，火电行业通过灵活策略占据主导地位，而钢铁和水泥行业则更多依赖碳排放权交易和CCER履约，不同行业在市场中的表现存在差异，碳市场的扩容、绿证与CCER的联合有效缓解了碳市场压力。

关键词: 碳市场扩容, 绿证-碳市场-CCER, 碳配额需求预测

Abstract:

In order to realize the goal of “double carbon”, we study the synergistic effect of thermal power generators in the green certificate market, carbon market and Chinese certified emission reduction (CCER) market under the background of market expansion. We construct a trading framework for thermal power generators under the multi-market association, and analyze the synergistic effect of emission control enterprises and emission reduction impacts under the market expansion based on the multi-subject non-cooperative game model, and adopt the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) combined with the support vector machine (SVM) model to predict the carbon emission right trading volume, and to estimate the carbon emission right trading volume, and to estimate the carbon emission right trading volume. Empirical mode decomposition (EMD) combined with support vector machine (SVM) model is used to predict the volume of carbon emissions trading and provide key parameter support for the game model. The results show that the thermal power industry dominates the market through flexible strategies, while the steel and cement industries rely more on carbon emissions trading and CCER compliance, and there are differences in the performance of different industries in the market, and the expansion of the carbon market, and the combination of green certificates and CCER effectively alleviate the pressure of the carbon market.

Key words: carbon market expansion, green certificates - carbon market - CCER, carbon allowance demand forecast

陈永权, 杨万佳, 王梦玉, 李佳霖. 绿证-碳-CCER市场交易主体协同效应[J]. 中国电力, 2025, 58(8): 109-117.

CHEN Yongquan, YANG Wanjia, WANG Mengyu, LI Jialin. Synergistic Effect of Green Certificate-Carbon-CCER Market Trading Subjects[J]. Electric Power, 2025, 58(8): 109-117.

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链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202410082

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2025/V58/I8/109

图/表 7

图 1 多市场下市场主体之发电商交易框架

Fig.1 Transaction framework for generators under multi-market

图 2 全国碳市场碳排放权日成交量

Fig.2 Daily turnover of carbon emission rights in the national carbon market

图 3 SVM模型预测结果

Fig.3 SVM model prediction results

表 1 模型性能对比

Table 1 Model performance comparison 单位：t

模型	RMSE	MAE
EMD-SVM	1.6516	0.6663
SVM	1.9807	0.7741
ARIMA	2.1475	0.8792

图 4 利润与碳排放变动趋势

Fig.4 Trends in profits and carbon emissions

表 2 参数设定

Table 2 Parameter setting

	碳排放因子/ (tCO₂·(MW·h)^–1)	技术水平/ (MW·h)	碳配额系数	成本下限/ 元	成本上限/ 元
电力	0.5703	0.0081	0.6956	250	400
钢铁	2.3500	0.7601	0.6845	1500	2000
水泥	0.6166	0.0820	0.6143	300	400

图 5 绿证、CCER与CET交易对比

Fig.5 Comparison of Green Certificates, CCER and CET Transactions

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