基于博弈论均衡的风险防控经济调度分析

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202402032

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为了评估电力系统中各发用电主体的成本及效益，需要对经济调度问题的博弈论均衡点开展研究与分析。随着新能源机组的大量接入以及用户绿色用电意识逐步提升，电力系统的发、用双侧均呈现新特征。首先，新能源机组的低边际成本特征、系统运行风险防控需求和用户侧的绿电需求都将对经济调度问题的数学形式产生影响。同时，传统解析方式在求解非线性均衡问题时也面临变量多和求解难等问题。为解决上述难题，首先提出了考虑绿电生产与消纳的电力系统风险防控经济调度数学模型，然后提出了基于最优响应法的博弈论均衡求解算法。通过算例分析，评估了可再生能源产消情况下的经济调度问题博弈论均衡情况，并对电力系统发电侧的投资规划提出了相关建议。

关键词: 经济调度, 可再生能源, 风险防控, 博弈论, 均衡分析

Abstract:

To evaluate the costs and benefits of each power generation and consumption entity in the power system, it is necessary to analyze the game theory equilibrium point of the economic dispatch problem. With the massive integration of renewable energy units and the gradual improvement of users' awareness of green power consumption, both the generation and consumption sides of the power system are showing new characteristics. First of all, the low marginal cost characteristics of renewable energy units, the need for risk prevention and control of system operation, and users' demand for green power will all have an impact on the mathematical form of the economic dispatch problem. At the same time, traditional analytical methods also face problems such as numerous variables and difficulty in solving nonlinear equilibrium problems. In order to solve these problems, this paper first proposes an economic dispatch mathematical model for risk prevention and control of the power system considering green power generation and consumption and then puts forward a game theory equilibrium solution algorithm based on the optimal response method. Through case analysis, the game theory equilibrium situation of the economic dispatch problem under the generation and consumption of renewable energy is evaluated, and relevant suggestions are put forward for investment planning on the power generation side of the power system.

Key words: economic dispatch, renewable energy, risk prevention and control, game theory, equilibrium analysis

王麒翔, 韩震焘, 梁毅. 基于博弈论均衡的风险防控经济调度分析[J]. 中国电力, 2024, 57(10): 69-77.

Qixiang WANG, Zhentao HAN, Yi LIANG. Economic Dispatch Analysis of Risk Prevention and Control Based on Game Theory Equilibrium[J]. Electric Power, 2024, 57(10): 69-77.

导出引用管理器 EndNote|Ris|BibTeX

链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202402032

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2024/V57/I10/69

图/表 13

图 1 考虑新能源产消的经济调度模型

Fig.1 Economic dispatch model considering generation and consumption of renewable energy

图 2 博弈论均衡的EPEC问题形式

Fig.2 EPEC form of game theory equilibrium

图 3 纳什均衡迭代求解算法

Fig.3 Iterative algorithm to solve Nash equilibrium

表 1 新能源发电商的成本参数

Table 1 Cost parameters of renewable energy generators

发电商		1		2		3		4
c/(美元·(MW·h)^–1)		2		1.1		1.5		1.8

表 2 火力发电商的成本参数

Table 2 Cost parameters of thermal power generators

发电商	1	2	3	4
a/(美元·(MW·h)^–2)	0.1	0.13	0.15	0.14
b/(美元·(MW·h)^–1)	3	6	4	5

表 3 电力用户的绿电不足系数及用电总需求

Table 3 Green power shortage coefficient and total power demand of power users

用户	1	2	3
x/(美元·(MW·h)^–2)	0.2	0.35	0.4
L_total/(MW·h)	100	120	140

表 4 不同场景下新能源及火力发电量

Table 4 Renewable energy and thermal power generation in different situations

场景	新能源电量/(MW·h)	火力发电量/(MW·h)	新能源渗透率/%
低	20	100	16.7
中	40	80	33.3
高	60	60	50.0

图 4 均衡点处的火电机组的策略报价系数

Fig.4 Strategic bidding parameters of thermal power units in equilibrium point

表 5 均衡点处的电能量价格

Table 5 Power price in equilibrium point

场景		低		中		高
价格/(美元·(MW·h)^–1)		16.9		13.7		10.5

图 5 均衡点处的火电机组中标量

Fig.5 Winning quantity of thermal power units in equilibrium point

图 6 均衡点处的火电机组利润

Fig.6 Profits of thermal power units in equilibrium point

表 6 火力发电商的利润空间被挤占比例

Table 6 Proportion of squeezed-out profit of thermal power generators 单位：%

用户	低场景	中场景	高场景
1	32.69	58.80	78.50
2	40.59	70.43	90.12
3	36.33	63.8	83.74
4	42.98	75.16	97.54

图 7 均衡点处的电力用户绿电供给量

Fig.7 Green power supply to power users in equilibrium point

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