德国关停核电前后保供应促消纳经验分析

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202307055

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

4月15日，在俄乌冲突危机仍未解除的情况下，德国如期关停核电。截至目前，德国供电安全并未受到明显影响，主要得益于裕度较高的常规电源、灵活的调节能力、坚强高效的跨国电网、相对完善的电力市场、高水平的可再生能源预测技术和监控手段。德国电力系统初步完成了“高比例可再生能源渗透+电网运行灵活稳定+电力市场化定价”的目标，但高成本高电价也给德国带来了一定的负担。为此，以德国为例开展研究分析，提出了中国能源转型过程中保障电力安全可靠供应、促进可再生能源高比例消纳的相关建议。

关键词: 德国核电, 能源转型, 可再生能源, 电力安全

Abstract:

On April 15th 2023, Germany has shut down all their nuclear power plants as scheduled, although the Russian-Ukrainian conflict crisis remains unresolved. Up to now, its power supply security has not been significantly affected, as the results of sufficient conventional power generation capacity as well as their flexible regulation capacity, the solid and efficient transnational power grid, the efficient power market, and the high-accuracy renewable power forecasting technology. The German power system has initially accomplished the goal of a "high proportion of renewable energy penetration, flexible and stable grid operation and market-based electricity pricing", but the high costs and high electricity price have brought heavy burden. Taking Germany as a reference, this study puts forward some suggestions for ensuring a safe and reliable supply of electricity and promoting a high proportion of renewable energy consumption during the energy transition process of China.

Key words: Germany nuclear power plants, energy transition, renewable energy, electric power safety.

刘之琳, 许传龙, 郑海峰, 李江涛, 姚力, 刘青, 杜翼. 德国关停核电前后保供应促消纳经验分析[J]. 中国电力, 2023, 56(10): 145-152.

Zhilin LIU, Chuanlong XU, Haifeng ZHENG, Jiangtao LI, Li YAO, Qing LIU, Yi DU. Empirical Analysis of Ensuring Electricity Supply and Promoting Renewable Power Consumption Before and After the Shutdown of Nuclear Power Plants: the Germany Case[J]. Electric Power, 2023, 56(10): 145-152.

导出引用管理器 EndNote|Ris|BibTeX

链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202307055

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2023/V56/I10/145

图/表 7

图 1 2022年德国各类电源装机及占比

Fig.1 Installation and proportion of all kinds of power supplies in Germany in 2022

图 2 德国高比例可再生能源保供应、促消纳举措

Fig.2 High proportion of renewable energy supply guarantee and consumption promotion measures in Germany

图 3 1992-2022年德国净出口电量变化情况

Fig.3 Changes of German net export electricity from 1992 to 2022

图 4 德国核电关停前后各类电源出力及进口电力变化情况

Fig.4 Changes of output of all kinds of power sources and imported power before and after nuclear power shutdown in Germany

图 5 2010-2022年德国居民电价和工业电价变化情况

Fig.5 Changes of residential and industrial electricity prices in Germany from 2010 to 2022

图 6 2010-2022年德国年用量为3500 kW·h的居民电价成本结构

Fig.6 Cost structure of residential electricity price in Germany with an annual consumption of 3500 kW·h from 2010 to 2022

图 7 2022年以来德国日前市场价格走势

Fig.7 Market price trend in Germany since 2022

参考文献 25

1	孟思琦, 孙仁金, 郭风. 可再生能源发电份额对德国市场化电价的影响[J]. 资源科学, 2021, 43 (8): 1562- 1573. DOI
	MENG Siqi, SUN Renjin, GUO Feng. Impact of renewable energy power generation share on Germany's electricity prices[J]. Resources Science, 2021, 43 (8): 1562- 1573. DOI
2	曹炜, 董浩洋, 李芸, 等. 分布式光伏高比例接入的国外经验及实践启示[J]. 电气传动, 2022, 52 (4): 3- 11.
	CAO Wei, DONG Haoyang, LI Yun, et al. Foreign experience and practical enlightenment of the high proportion access of distributed photovoltaic high-proportion[J]. Electric Drive, 2022, 52 (4): 3- 11.
3	李品, 谢晓敏, 黄震. 德国能源转型进程及对中国的启示[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2023, 19 (1): 116- 126.
	LI Pin, XIE Xiaomin, HUANG Zhen. German energy transformation process and its enlightenment to China[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19 (1): 116- 126.
4	王超, 孙福全, 许晔, 等. 乌克兰危机下的全球能源格局变化及能源科技发展新特点[J]. 中国科学院院刊, 2023, 38 (6): 875- 886.
	WANG Chao, SUN Fuquan, XU Ye, et al. Changes in global energy landscape and new developments in energy science and technology amid Ukraine crisis[J]. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2023, 38 (6): 875- 886.
5	董一凡, 申青青. 从能源转型角度探析欧盟能源发展前景[J]. 国际石油经济, 2023, 31 (4): 12- 19. DOI
	DONG Yifan, SHEN Qingqing. Analysis of the EU's energy development prospects from the perspective of energy transformation[J]. International Petroleum Economics, 2023, 31 (4): 12- 19. DOI
6	刘硕, 于松泰, 孙田, 等. 面向高比例可再生能源电力系统的容量补偿机制研究[J]. 电网技术, 2022, 46 (5): 1780- 1789.
	LIU Shuo, YU Songtai, SUN Tian, et al. Capacity compensation mechanism for highly-proportional renewable energy power systems[J]. Power System Technology, 2022, 46 (5): 1780- 1789.
7	黄海涛, 许佳丹, 郭志刚, 等. 发电容量充裕性保障机制国际实践与启示[J]. 中国电力, 2023, 56 (1): 68- 76.
	HUANG Haitao, XU Jiadan, GUO Zhigang, et al. International practice and enlightenment of generation capacity adequacy guarantee mechanism[J]. Electric Power, 2023, 56 (1): 68- 76.
8	朱彤. 德国与美国当前能源转型进程比较分析[J]. 国际石油经济, 2016, 24 (5): 1- 8. DOI
	ZHU Tong. Comparison analysis on current energy transition in Germany and the United States[J]. International Petroleum Economics, 2016, 24 (5): 1- 8. DOI
9	胡琨, 钟佳睿. 欧洲熄火? ——艰难前行的德国能源转型[J]. 文化纵横, 2022, (6): 12- 15, 158. DOI
	HU Kun, ZHONG Jiarui. Europe stalled? -Germany's difficult energy transformation[J]. Beijing Cultural Review, 2022, (6): 12- 15, 158. DOI
10	洪博文, MIKETA Asami, GIELEN Dolf, 等. 基于可再生能源的全球电气化路径与远景分析[J]. 中国电力, 2020, 53 (3): 159- 166.
	HONG Bowen, ASAMI M, DOLF G, et al. Global renewable-based electrification pathways and its long-term scenario analysis[J]. Electric Power, 2020, 53 (3): 159- 166.
11	周原冰, 江涵, 肖晋宇, 等. 清洁低碳发展背景下跨国互联电力系统规划方法[J]. 中国电力, 2020, 53 (10): 1- 9.
	ZHOU Yuanbing, JIANG Han, XIAO Jinyu, et al. Planning methods for transnationally interconnected power systems under the background of clean low-carbon development[J]. Electric Power, 2020, 53 (10): 1- 9.
12	张宁, 薛美美, 吴潇雨, 等. 国内外能源转型比较与启示[J]. 中国电力, 2021, 54 (2): 113- 119, 155.
	ZHANG Ning, XUE Meimei, WU Xiaoyu, et al. Comparison and enlightenment of energy transition between domestic and international[J]. Electric Power, 2021, 54 (2): 113- 119, 155.
13	王跃峰. 德国新能源发电发展和运行研究[J]. 中国电力, 2020, 53 (5): 112- 121.
	WANG Yuefeng. Research on development and operation of renewable energy generation in German[J]. Electric Power, 2020, 53 (5): 112- 121.
14	马晋龙, 孙勇, 叶学顺. 欧洲海上风电规划机制和激励策略及其启示[J]. 中国电力, 2022, 55 (4): 1- 11, 92.
	MA Jinlong, SUN Yong, YE Xueshun. Planning mechanism and incentive strategies of European offshore wind power and their enlightenment[J]. Electric Power, 2022, 55 (4): 1- 11, 92.
15	赵东元, 胡楠, 傅靖, 等. 提升新能源电力系统灵活性的中国实践及发展路径研究[J]. 电力系统保护与控制, 2020, 48 (24): 1- 8. DOI
	ZHAO Dongyuan, HU Nan, FU Jing, et al. Research on the practice and road map of enhancing the flexibility of a new generation power system in China[J]. Power System Protection and Control, 2020, 48 (24): 1- 8. DOI
16	陈灏, 田琳, 盛剑胜, 等. 考虑风险规避和需求响应的电力市场可再生能源综合交易决策研究[J]. 电力科学与技术学报, 2023, 38 (1): 27- 34. DOI
	CHEN Hao, TIAN Lin, SHENG Jiansheng, et al. Research on comprehensive trading decision of renewable energy in power market considering the risk aversion and demand response[J]. Journal of Electric Power Science and Technology, 2023, 38 (1): 27- 34. DOI
17	李程昊, 蒋芒, 姚德贵, 等. 高比例可再生能源电力系统的日前-日内两级无功功率滚动调度方法[J]. 南方电网技术, 2022, 16 (6): 94- 103.
	LI Chenghao, JIANG Mang, YAO Degui, et al. Day-ahead and intra-day two-stage reactive power rolling dispatch method for power systems with high renewable power penetration[J]. Southern Power System Technology, 2022, 16 (6): 94- 103.
18	朱彤. 能源转型能增加天然气消费吗? ——德国的实证与启示[J]. 中国能源, 2017, 39 (12): 14- 18. DOI
	ZHU Tong. Can energy transition increase natural gas consumption? —German practice perspective and inspiration[J]. Energy of China, 2017, 39 (12): 14- 18. DOI
19	Energy-charts. Net installed electricity generation capacity in Germany in 2022 [EB/OL]. (2023-02-01)[2023-06-10]. https://energy-charts.info/index.html?l= en&c=DE.
20	TENNE T. Unlocking industrial demand side response[R]. Berlin: Tenne T, 2021.
21	刘定, 赵德福, 白木仁, 等. 可再生能源发电对实时电价的影响分析—德国电力现货市场的数据实证[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2020, 44 (4): 126- 133. DOI
	LIU Ding, ZHAO Defu, BAI Muren, et al. Analysis on impact of renewable energy generation on real-time electricity price: data empirical research on electricity spot market of Germany[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2020, 44 (4): 126- 133. DOI
22	江涵, 高艺. 德国能源转型中电力系统平衡机制探讨[J]. 中国电力企业管理, 2023, (13): 90- 93.
	JIANG Han, GAO Yi. Discussion on balance mechanism of power system in Germany's energy transformation[J]. China Power Enterprise Management, 2023, (13): 90- 93.
23	Bundesnetzagentur Smart Stromarktdaten. Exported balancing services[EB/OL]. (2023-05-01) [2023-06-10]. https://www.smard.de/en/marktdaten?marketData&marketData.
24	Federal Statistical Office of Germany. Household natural gas price up 16.2% in the second half year of 2022[EB/OL]. (2023-05-01) [2023-6-10]. https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2023/04/PE23_151_61243.html.
25	Clean Energy Wire. Germany's energy consumption and power mix in charts[EB/OL]. (2023-05-01) [2023-06-10]. https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/germanys-energy-consumption-and-power-mix-charts.

[1]	姜通海, 王峰, 刘子琪, 单帅杰. 基于改进生成对抗网络的风光气象资源联合场景生成方法[J]. 中国电力, 2025, 58(3): 183-192.
[2]	汤明润, 李若旸, 刘慕然, 程晓钰, 刘铫, 杨淑霞. 电力系统稳态下可再生能源大规模接入量预测[J]. 中国电力, 2025, 58(2): 126-132.
[3]	黄堃, 付明, 翟家祥, 华昊辰. 基于改进线性化ADMM的多微网经济运行分布式协调优化[J]. 中国电力, 2025, 58(2): 193-202.
[4]	鲁玲, 苑涛, 杨波, 李欣, 鲁洋, 蒲秋平, 张鑫. 计及㶲效率和多重不确定性的区域综合能源系统双层优化[J]. 中国电力, 2025, 58(1): 128-140.
[5]	邹小燕, 张瑞宏. 考虑政府干预的可再生能源与储能企业合作模式演化博弈研究[J]. 中国电力, 2025, 58(1): 153-163.
[6]	邵冲, 胡荣义, 余姣, 王明典. 考虑荷电与储氢状态的风光氢储系统动态控制仿真模型[J]. 中国电力, 2024, 57(7): 109-124.
[7]	胡旭, 安锐坚, 杜宇晨, 施啸寒, 王越. 欧洲—北非氢能协同发展研究[J]. 中国电力, 2024, 57(7): 151-162.
[8]	高政南, 姜楠, 陈启鑫, 徐江, 王海利, 辛力, 徐青贵. 德国电力市场能源转型建设及启示[J]. 中国电力, 2024, 57(6): 204-214.
[9]	叶小宁, 王彩霞, 李琼慧, 杨超. 国外新能源高占比电力系统电力供应保障措施及启示[J]. 中国电力, 2024, 57(4): 61-67.
[10]	武群丽, 朱新宇. 可再生能源配额制下风光储联合参与现货市场的交易决策[J]. 中国电力, 2024, 57(4): 77-88.
[11]	王轶楠, 卢静, 陈星彤, 代红才. 考虑多重因素叠加情景的能源清洁低碳转型风险评估[J]. 中国电力, 2024, 57(3): 183-189.
[12]	王麒翔, 韩震焘, 梁毅. 基于博弈论均衡的风险防控经济调度分析[J]. 中国电力, 2024, 57(10): 69-77.
[13]	但扬清, 王蕾, 郑伟民, 武佳卉, 王晨轩, 余高旺. 高比例可再生能源接入背景下电网承载能力鲁棒提升策略[J]. 中国电力, 2023, 56(9): 104-111.
[14]	武震, 霍彦达, 张翼, 黄巨龙, 戴剑锋. 考虑新能源发电量季节性分布的省区级季节性储能需求测算方法[J]. 中国电力, 2023, 56(8): 40-47.
[15]	汤芳, 代红才, 张宁, 吴越, 薛美美, 陈睿. 能耗双控向碳排放双控转变影响分析及推进路径设计[J]. 中国电力, 2023, 56(12): 255-261.