西北地区扶贫光伏整县开发决策演化博弈

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202212047

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

双碳目标背景下，西北地区分布式光伏整县开发新模式为解决该地区就地消纳难、弃光严重、光伏扶贫工作分散化等问题提供了新思路，然而光伏扶贫整县市场中各方利益主体的多主体决策问题成为当前扶贫电站市场运行的重中之重。以演化博弈论为基础，构建了包含用户、国有企业、光伏企业和政府在内的四方演化博弈模型，研究了以甘肃省、青海省、宁夏回族自治区为代表的西北地区光伏扶贫整县市场多主体决策演化及参数影响。结果表明，国企和光伏企业的均衡策略均为积极策略，而由于西北地区各地光照资源、电价、用电量等不同，用户和政府的均衡结果及时间也存在差异，光照资源丰富且政府补贴力度较大的地区光伏扶贫收益较为可观，用户投资热情高涨且实现均衡时间较短；成本节约和降低租金是改善西北地区均衡路径的有效措施。

关键词: 光伏扶贫, 整县模式, 协同机制, 四维演化博弈, 路径

Abstract:

Despite the fact that the new model of distributed photovoltaic development in the whole county has offered a fresh approach to solving the problems such as difficult absorption, serious abandonment of photovoltaic power and decentralized poverty alleviation efforts amid the commitment to "carbon peak and carbon neutrality", the problem of multi-subject decision-making among all stakeholders in photovoltaic poverty alleviation in the whole county market has become the top priority of the current poverty alleviation power station market operation. Based on the evolutionary game theory, a four-party evolutionary game model involving users, state-owned enterprises (including the State Grid), photovoltaic enterprises and the government is constructed, with the multi-subject decision-making evolution and parameter influence of photovoltaic poverty alleviation market in Gansu Province, Qinghai Province and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region studied. The results show that the equilibrium strategies of state-owned enterprises and photovoltaic enterprises are all positive, but the equilibrium results and time between users and the government are also different due to the differences in light resources, electricity prices and electricity consumption in various areas. The photovoltaic market in Gansu Province is balanced in the strategy set built by users without government subsidies. Areas with more abundant sunshine and significant government subsidies report considerable income from photovoltaic poverty alleviation, which means stronger users interest in investment and shorter time to achieve equilibrium; cost saving and rent reduction are effective measures to improve the equilibrium path in Northwest China.

Key words: photovoltaic poverty alleviation, whole county model, synergy mechanism, four-dimensional evolutionary game, path

刘宁, 张驰, 王栋, 杨明杰. 西北地区扶贫光伏整县开发决策演化博弈[J]. 中国电力, 2024, 57(2): 149-160.

Ning LIU, Chi ZHANG, Dong WANG, Mingjie YANG. Evolutionary Game on Development Decision of Poverty Alleviation Photovoltaic in Northwest China[J]. Electric Power, 2024, 57(2): 149-160.

导出引用管理器 EndNote|Ris|BibTeX

链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202212047

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2024/V57/I2/149

图/表 11

参考文献 18

1	刘学敏. 贫困县扶贫产业可持续发展研究[J]. 中国软科学, 2020, (3): 79- 86.
	LIU Xuemin. Study on the sustainable development of poverty alleviation industry in poverty-stricken counties[J]. China Soft Science, 2020, (3): 79- 86.
2	黄赋斌, 李文静, 帅传敏. 光伏扶贫对乡村振兴的政策效应[J]. 资源科学, 2022, 44 (1): 32- 46.
	HUANG Fubin, LI Wenjing, SHUAI Chuanmin. Policy effect of solar photovoltaic poverty alleviation on promoting rural revitalization[J]. Resources Science, 2022, 44 (1): 32- 46.
3	朱海波, 毕洁颖. 巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果同乡村振兴有效衔接: 重点方向与政策调试: 针对“三区三州”脱贫地区的探讨[J]. 南京农业大学学报(社会科学版), 2021, 21 (6): 80- 90.
	ZHU Haibo, BI Jieying. Key directions and policy adjustments for consolidating and expanding the achievements of poverty elimination and effectively linking with rural revitalization: discussion on the "three regions and three prefectures" lifted out of poverty[J]. Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University (Social Sciences Edition), 2021, 21 (6): 80- 90.
4	黄圆圆, 关磊. 光伏扶贫项目实施成效及其可持续发展研究: 以宁夏回族自治区为例[J]. 价格理论与实践, 2020, (3): 167- 170, 178.
	HUANG Yuanyuan, GUAN Lei. The research on the implementation effect and sustainable development of photovoltaic poverty alleviation project—take Ningxia Hui autonomous region as an example[J]. Price (Theory & Practice), 2020, (3): 167- 170, 178.
5	李娜, 张广来, 周应恒, 等. 中国减贫实践: 农村“光伏扶贫”政策的社会经济效益评价[J]. 中国农业大学学报, 2022, 27 (2): 294- 310.
	LI Na, ZHANG Guanglai, ZHOU Yingheng, et al. China's experience of poverty alleviation: socioeconomic effect of rural "photovoltaic poverty alleviation" policy[J]. Journal of China Agricultural University, 2022, 27 (2): 294- 310.
6	昌敦虎, 田川, 张泽阳, 等. 基于LCOE模型的光伏发电经济效益分析: 以宜昌农村地区光伏扶贫电站项目为例[J]. 环境科学研究, 2020, 33 (10): 2412- 2420.
	CHANG Dunhu, TIAN Chuan, ZHANG Zeyang, et al. Economic benefit analysis on photovoltaic power generation with LCOE model: the case of poverty alleviation project in rural areas of Yichang city[J]. Research of Environmental Sciences, 2020, 33 (10): 2412- 2420.
7	刘城宇, 杨洪明, 赖明勇. 农业现代化背景下县域光伏扶贫生态补偿标准评估[J]. 农业工程学报, 2020, 36 (16): 300- 309.
	LIU Chengyu, YANG Hongming, LAI Mingyong. Assessment of ecological compensation standards for county-level photovoltaic poverty alleviation under the background of agricultural modernization[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2020, 36 (16): 300- 309.
8	邹乐乐, 陈佩佩, 王辉, 等. 光伏扶贫项目的问题分析与路径优化: 基于安徽阜阳及山西左权的田野调查[J]. 中国软科学, 2019, (10): 50- 60.
	ZOU Lele, CHEN Peipei, WANG Hui, et al. Analysis and optimization path of photovoltaic poverty alleviation project based on field investigation in Fuyang and Zuoquan[J]. China Soft Science, 2019, (10): 50- 60.
9	杜松怀, 孙若男, 杨曼, 等. 光伏扶贫农村综合能源站设计与优化配置方法[J]. 农业机械学报, 2021, 52 (S1): 367- 376.
	DU Songhuai, SUN Ruonan, YANG Man, et al. Optimal allocation method of rural integrated energy station under background of photovoltaic poverty alleviation[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery, 2021, 52 (S1): 367- 376.
10	郑云安, 夏哲辉, 罗毅, 等. 基于模糊层次分析法的扶贫光伏电站运维模式选型[J]. 中国电力, 2021, 54 (6): 191- 198.
	ZHENG Yunan, XIA Zhehui, LUO Yi, et al. Research on operation and maintenance mode of photovoltaic poverty alleviation power station based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process[J]. Electric Power, 2021, 54 (6): 191- 198.
11	杨辉, 莫峻. 发电侧企业群体间竞价行为的随机演化博弈[J]. 电网技术, 2021, 45 (9): 3389- 3397.
	YANG Hui, MO Jun. Stochastic evolutionary game of bidding behavior for generation side enterprise groups[J]. Power System Technology, 2021, 45 (9): 3389- 3397.
12	危小超, 朱田. 基于演化博弈的电子商务生态系统协同机制研究[J]. 北京邮电大学学报(社会科学版), 2021, 23 (1): 28- 40.
	WEI Xiaochao, ZHU Tian. Coordinated mechanism of E-commerce ecosystem based on evolutionary game[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications (Social Sciences Edition), 2021, 23 (1): 28- 40.
13	朱立龙, 荣俊美, 张思意. 政府奖惩机制下药品安全质量监管三方演化博弈及仿真分析[J]. 中国管理科学, 2021, 29 (11): 55- 67.
	ZHU Lilong, RONG Junmei, ZHANG Siyi. Three-party evolutionary game and simulation analysis of drug quality supervision under the government reward and punishment mechanism[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2021, 29 (11): 55- 67.
14	卢强, 陈来军, 梅生伟. 博弈论在电力系统中典型应用及若干展望[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2014, 34 (29): 5009- 5017.
	LU Qiang, CHEN Laijun, MEI Shengwei. Typical applications and prospects of game theory in power system[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2014, 34 (29): 5009- 5017.
15	范辉, 罗蓬, 王弘利, 等. 基于社交网上演化博弈的光伏台区用户需求响应特性研究[J]. 电力建设, 2022, 43 (8): 150- 158.
	FAN Hui, LUO Peng, WANG Hongli, et al. Study on demand response of users in photovoltaic station area applying evolutionary game model in social network[J]. Electric Power Construction, 2022, 43 (8): 150- 158.
16	刘宝林, 李小双, 曾小松, 等. 基于系统动力学和演化博弈的光伏项目EMC模式投资意愿分析[J]. 电力系统及其自动化学报, 2021, 33 (4): 40- 46, 54.
	LIU Baolin, LI Xiaoshuang, ZENG Xiaosong, et al. Investment willingness analysis of EMC PV project based on system dynamics and evolutionary game theory[J]. Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA, 2021, 33 (4): 40- 46, 54.
17	鲁明芳, 李咸善, 李飞, 等. 基于双层博弈优化的光伏电站集群储能租赁配置策略[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2022, 42 (16): 5887- 5898.
	LU Mingfang, LI Xianshan, LI Fei, et al. Strategy of energy storage leasing configuration of photovoltaic power station cluster based on Bi-level game optimization[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2022, 42 (16): 5887- 5898.
18	陈娟, 高江梅. 基于演化博弈的户用光伏整县开发协同机制及仿真[J]. 电网技术, 2023, 47 (2): 669- 684.
	CHEN Juan, GAO Jiangmei. Coordination mechanism and simulation of household photovoltaic county development based on evolutionary game[J]. Power System Technology, 2023, 47 (2): 669- 684.

博弈主体策略及收益		用户自建光伏(x)		用户出租屋顶(1–x)
博弈主体策略及收益		国有企业合作(y)	国有企业不合作(1–y)	国有企业合作(y)	国有企业不合作(1–y)
光伏企业安装(z)	政府补贴(w)	P₂Q₂–(1–T)C–M; (1–t₁)(P₁–P₂)Q₂; (1–t₂)(C+M–C₀); t₁(P₁–P₂)Q₂+t₂(C+M–C₀)–TC	–(1–T)C–M; 0; (1–t₂)(C+M–C₀); t₂(C+M–C₀)–TC	R–aP₁Q₁; (1–t₁)(P₁–P₂)Q₂; (1–t₂)(aP₁Q₁+P₂Q₂+TC–C₀–R); t₁(P₁–P₂)Q₂+t₂(aP₁Q₁+P₂Q₂+TC– C₀–R)–TC	R–aP₁Q₁; 0; (1–t₂)(aP₁Q₁+TC–C₀–R); t₂(aP₁Q₁+TC–C₀–R)–TC
光伏企业安装(z)	政府不补贴(1–w)	P₂Q₂–C–M; (1–t₁)(P₁–P₂)Q₂; (1–t₂)(C+M–C₀); t₁(P₁–P₂)Q₂+t₂(C+M–C₀)–C_G	–C–M; 0; (1–t₂)(C+M–C₀); t₂(C+M–C₀)–C_G	R–aP₁Q₁; (1–t₁)(P₁–P₂)Q₂; (1–t₂)(aP₁Q₁+P₂Q₂–C₀–R); t₁(P₁–P₂)Q₂+t₂(aP₁Q₁+P₂Q₂–C₀– R)–C_G	R–aP₁Q₁; 0; (1–t₂)(aP₁Q₁–C₀–R); t₂(aP₁Q₁–C₀–R)–C_G
光伏企业不安装(1–z)	政府补贴(w)	P₂Q₂–(1–T)C–M; (1–t₁)((P₁–P₂)Q₂+C+M–C₀); 0; t₁((P₁–P₂)Q₂+C+M–C₀)–TC	–(1–T)C–M; (1–t₁)(C+M–C₀); 0; t₁(C+M–C₀)–TC	R–aP₁Q₁; (1–t₁)(aP₁Q₁+P₁Q₂+TC–C₀–R); 0; t₁(aP₁Q₁+P₁Q₂+TC–C₀–R)–TC	R–aP₁Q₁; (1–t₁)(aP₁Q₁+TC–C₀–R); 0; t₁(aP₁Q₁+TC–C₀–R)–TC
光伏企业不安装(1–z)	政府不补贴(1–w)	P₂Q₂–C–M; (1–t₁)((P₁–P₂)Q₂+C+M–C₀); 0; t₁((P₁–P₂)Q₂+C+M–C₀)–C_G	–P₁Q₁; (1–t₁)P₁Q₁; 0; t₁P₁Q₁–C_G	R–aP₁Q₁; (1–t₁)(aP₁Q₁+P₁Q₂–C₀–R); 0; t₁(aP₁Q₁+P₁Q₂–C₀–R)–C_G	–P₁Q₁; (1–t₁)P₁Q₁; 0; t₁(P₁Q₂–C₀–R)–C_G

博弈主体策略及收益		用户自建光伏(x)		用户出租屋顶(1–x)
博弈主体策略及收益		国有企业合作(y)	国有企业不合作(1–y)	国有企业合作(y)	国有企业不合作(1–y)
光伏企业安装(z)	政府补贴(w)	P₂Q₂–(1–T)C–M; (1–t₁)(P₁–P₂)Q₂; (1–t₂)(C+M–C₀); t₁(P₁–P₂)Q₂+t₂(C+M–C₀)–TC	–(1–T)C–M; 0; (1–t₂)(C+M–C₀); t₂(C+M–C₀)–TC	R–aP₁Q₁; (1–t₁)(P₁–P₂)Q₂; (1–t₂)(aP₁Q₁+P₂Q₂+TC–C₀–R); t₁(P₁–P₂)Q₂+t₂(aP₁Q₁+P₂Q₂+TC– C₀–R)–TC	R–aP₁Q₁; 0; (1–t₂)(aP₁Q₁+TC–C₀–R); t₂(aP₁Q₁+TC–C₀–R)–TC
光伏企业安装(z)	政府不补贴(1–w)	P₂Q₂–C–M; (1–t₁)(P₁–P₂)Q₂; (1–t₂)(C+M–C₀); t₁(P₁–P₂)Q₂+t₂(C+M–C₀)–C_G	–C–M; 0; (1–t₂)(C+M–C₀); t₂(C+M–C₀)–C_G	R–aP₁Q₁; (1–t₁)(P₁–P₂)Q₂; (1–t₂)(aP₁Q₁+P₂Q₂–C₀–R); t₁(P₁–P₂)Q₂+t₂(aP₁Q₁+P₂Q₂–C₀– R)–C_G	R–aP₁Q₁; 0; (1–t₂)(aP₁Q₁–C₀–R); t₂(aP₁Q₁–C₀–R)–C_G
光伏企业不安装(1–z)	政府补贴(w)	P₂Q₂–(1–T)C–M; (1–t₁)((P₁–P₂)Q₂+C+M–C₀); 0; t₁((P₁–P₂)Q₂+C+M–C₀)–TC	–(1–T)C–M; (1–t₁)(C+M–C₀); 0; t₁(C+M–C₀)–TC	R–aP₁Q₁; (1–t₁)(aP₁Q₁+P₁Q₂+TC–C₀–R); 0; t₁(aP₁Q₁+P₁Q₂+TC–C₀–R)–TC	R–aP₁Q₁; (1–t₁)(aP₁Q₁+TC–C₀–R); 0; t₁(aP₁Q₁+TC–C₀–R)–TC
光伏企业不安装(1–z)	政府不补贴(1–w)	P₂Q₂–C–M; (1–t₁)((P₁–P₂)Q₂+C+M–C₀); 0; t₁((P₁–P₂)Q₂+C+M–C₀)–C_G	–P₁Q₁; (1–t₁)P₁Q₁; 0; t₁P₁Q₁–C_G	R–aP₁Q₁; (1–t₁)(aP₁Q₁+P₁Q₂–C₀–R); 0; t₁(aP₁Q₁+P₁Q₂–C₀–R)–C_G	–P₁Q₁; (1–t₁)P₁Q₁; 0; t₁(P₁Q₂–C₀–R)–C_G

均衡点	$ {\lambda _1} $	$ {\lambda _2} $	$ {\lambda _3} $	$ {\lambda _4} $
$ {E_1}(0,0,0,0) $	0	(t₁–1)(C₀+R–P₁Q₂+(1–a)P₁Q₁)	(t₂–1)(C₀+R–aP₁Q₁)	C_G–t₁(–CT–P₁Q₁a+P₁Q₂)–CT
$ {E_2}(1,0,0,0) $	0	–(t₁–1)(C–C₀+M+Q₂(P₁–P₂)–P₁Q₁)	0	C_G+t₁(C–C₀+M–P₁Q₁)–CT
$ {E_3}(0,1,0,0) $	P₂Q₂–M–R–C+P₁Q₁a	–(t₁–1)(C₀+R–P₁Q₂+(1–a)P₁Q₁)	(t₂–1)(2C₀+R–P₂Q₂–P₁Q₁a–C–M)	C_G+(t₁–1)CT
$ {E_4}(0,0,1,0) $	P₁Q₁a–M–R–C	–Q₂(P₁–P₂)(t₁–1)	–(t₂–1)(C₀+R–aP₁Q₁)	C_G+(t₂–1)CT
$ {E_5}(0,0,0,1) $	C(T–1)–R–M+P₁Q₁a	–(t₁–1)(P₁Q₂)	(t₂–1)(C₀+R–CT–P₁Q₁a)	t₁(–CT–P₁Q₁a+P₁Q₂)+CT–C_G
$ {E_6}(1,1,0,0) $	–P₂Q₂+M+R+C–P₁Q₁a	(t₁–1)(C–C₀+M+Q₂(P₁–P₂)–P₁Q₁)	–(t₂–1)(C–C₀+M)	C_G–CT
$ {E_7}(1,0,1,0) $	C+M+R–P₁Q₁a	–Q₂(P₁–P₂)(t₁–1)	0	C_G–CT
$ {E_8}(1,0,0,1) $	M+R–C(T–1)–P₁Q₁a	–(t₁–1)(Q₂(P₁–P₂))	–(t₂–1)(C–C₀+M)	–C_G–t₁(C–C₀+M–P₁Q₁)+CT
$ {E_9}(0,1,1,0) $	P₂Q₂–M–R–C+P₁Q₁a	Q₂(P₁–P₂)(t₁–1)	(1–t₂)(2C₀+R–P₂Q₂–P₁Q₁a–C–M)	–(1–t₂)CT+C_G
$ {E_{10}}(0,1,0,1) $	P₂Q₂–R–M+C(T–1)+P₁Q₁a	(t₁–1)(P₁Q₂)	–(t₂–1)(P₂Q₂–R–C₀+CT+P₁Q₁a)	–C_G–(t₁–1)CT
$ {E_{11}}(0,0,1,1) $	C(T–1)–R–M+P₁Q₁a	–Q₂(P₁–P₂)(t₁–1)	–(t₂–1)(C₀+R–CT–P₁Q₁a)	–C_G–(t₂–1)CT
$ {E_{12}}(1,1,1,0) $	–P₂Q₂+M+R+C–P₁Q₁a	Q₂(P₁–P₂)(t₁–1)	(t₂–1)(C–C₀+M)	C_G–CT
$ {E_{13}}(1,0,1,1) $	–C(T–1)+R+M–P₁Q₁a	–Q₂(P₁–P₂)(t₁–1)	(t₂–1)(C–C₀+M)	–C_G+CT
$ {E_{14}}(1,1,0,1) $	–P₂Q₂+R+M–C(T–1)–P₁Q₁a	(t₁–1)(Q₂(P₁–P₂))	–(t₂–1)(C–C₀+M)	–C_G+CT
$ {E_{15}}(0,1,1,1) $	P₂Q₂–R–M+C(T–1)+P₁Q₁a	Q₂(P₁–P₂)(t₁–1)	(t₂–1)(P₂Q₂–R–C₀+CT+P₁Q₁a)	(1–t₂)CT–C_G
$ {E_{16}}(1,1,1,1) $	–P₂Q₂+R+M–C(T–1)–P₁Q₁a	Q₂(P₁–P₂)(t₁–1)	(t₂–1)(C–C₀+M)	–C_G+CT

均衡点	$ {\lambda _1} $	$ {\lambda _2} $	$ {\lambda _3} $	$ {\lambda _4} $
$ {E_1}(0,0,0,0) $	0	(t₁–1)(C₀+R–P₁Q₂+(1–a)P₁Q₁)	(t₂–1)(C₀+R–aP₁Q₁)	C_G–t₁(–CT–P₁Q₁a+P₁Q₂)–CT
$ {E_2}(1,0,0,0) $	0	–(t₁–1)(C–C₀+M+Q₂(P₁–P₂)–P₁Q₁)	0	C_G+t₁(C–C₀+M–P₁Q₁)–CT
$ {E_3}(0,1,0,0) $	P₂Q₂–M–R–C+P₁Q₁a	–(t₁–1)(C₀+R–P₁Q₂+(1–a)P₁Q₁)	(t₂–1)(2C₀+R–P₂Q₂–P₁Q₁a–C–M)	C_G+(t₁–1)CT
$ {E_4}(0,0,1,0) $	P₁Q₁a–M–R–C	–Q₂(P₁–P₂)(t₁–1)	–(t₂–1)(C₀+R–aP₁Q₁)	C_G+(t₂–1)CT
$ {E_5}(0,0,0,1) $	C(T–1)–R–M+P₁Q₁a	–(t₁–1)(P₁Q₂)	(t₂–1)(C₀+R–CT–P₁Q₁a)	t₁(–CT–P₁Q₁a+P₁Q₂)+CT–C_G
$ {E_6}(1,1,0,0) $	–P₂Q₂+M+R+C–P₁Q₁a	(t₁–1)(C–C₀+M+Q₂(P₁–P₂)–P₁Q₁)	–(t₂–1)(C–C₀+M)	C_G–CT
$ {E_7}(1,0,1,0) $	C+M+R–P₁Q₁a	–Q₂(P₁–P₂)(t₁–1)	0	C_G–CT
$ {E_8}(1,0,0,1) $	M+R–C(T–1)–P₁Q₁a	–(t₁–1)(Q₂(P₁–P₂))	–(t₂–1)(C–C₀+M)	–C_G–t₁(C–C₀+M–P₁Q₁)+CT
$ {E_9}(0,1,1,0) $	P₂Q₂–M–R–C+P₁Q₁a	Q₂(P₁–P₂)(t₁–1)	(1–t₂)(2C₀+R–P₂Q₂–P₁Q₁a–C–M)	–(1–t₂)CT+C_G
$ {E_{10}}(0,1,0,1) $	P₂Q₂–R–M+C(T–1)+P₁Q₁a	(t₁–1)(P₁Q₂)	–(t₂–1)(P₂Q₂–R–C₀+CT+P₁Q₁a)	–C_G–(t₁–1)CT
$ {E_{11}}(0,0,1,1) $	C(T–1)–R–M+P₁Q₁a	–Q₂(P₁–P₂)(t₁–1)	–(t₂–1)(C₀+R–CT–P₁Q₁a)	–C_G–(t₂–1)CT
$ {E_{12}}(1,1,1,0) $	–P₂Q₂+M+R+C–P₁Q₁a	Q₂(P₁–P₂)(t₁–1)	(t₂–1)(C–C₀+M)	C_G–CT
$ {E_{13}}(1,0,1,1) $	–C(T–1)+R+M–P₁Q₁a	–Q₂(P₁–P₂)(t₁–1)	(t₂–1)(C–C₀+M)	–C_G+CT
$ {E_{14}}(1,1,0,1) $	–P₂Q₂+R+M–C(T–1)–P₁Q₁a	(t₁–1)(Q₂(P₁–P₂))	–(t₂–1)(C–C₀+M)	–C_G+CT
$ {E_{15}}(0,1,1,1) $	P₂Q₂–R–M+C(T–1)+P₁Q₁a	Q₂(P₁–P₂)(t₁–1)	(t₂–1)(P₂Q₂–R–C₀+CT+P₁Q₁a)	(1–t₂)CT–C_G
$ {E_{16}}(1,1,1,1) $	–P₂Q₂+R+M–C(T–1)–P₁Q₁a	Q₂(P₁–P₂)(t₁–1)	(t₂–1)(C–C₀+M)	–C_G+CT

地区	C/万元	Q₁/ (MW·h)	Q₂/ (MW·h)	P₁/ (元·(kW·h)^–1)	P₂/ (元·(kW·h)^–1)	M/万元	R/万元	C₀/万元	t₁	t₂	T	C_G/万元	a
甘肃省	14.050	15.810	54.320	0.5100	0.307 8	2.450	5.400	7.000	0.130	0.100	0.213 2	1.000	0.900
青海省	14.050	16.310	45.360	0.377 1	0.324 7	2.450	5.400	7.000	0.130	0.100	0.031 2	1.000	0.900
宁夏	14.050	12.270	58.540	0.448 6	0.259 5	2.450	5.400	7.000	0.130	0.100	0.128 0	1.000	0.900