支撑双碳目标的新型储能发展潜力及路径研究

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202303034

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 构建新型电力系统对于实现“碳达峰、碳中和”目标至关重要。系统灵活调节能力已成为构建新型电力系统的关键因素。新型储能具有多种优势，且技术经济性正在快速进步，必将成为提升系统灵活调节能力的重要支撑。未来支撑实现双碳目标的新型电力系统需要多少新型储能、什么样的新型储能以及如何发展新型储能是需要重点研究的课题。将中国电力系统转型路径、灵活性资源协同规划、储能技术发展及中国电力系统的特征相结合，以转型路径情景为基础边界，充分考虑煤电发展过程存在的不确定，提出3种新型储能研究方案；采用基于时序生产模拟的电力系统源网荷储扩展优化模型，充分刻画七大区域电网的电源、负荷及电网互联等系统特性，全面考虑系统灵活性资源的技术经济特性，量化分析全国七大区域电网对各类型储能的需求潜力；从碳达峰、快速减排、碳中和3个阶段，针对新型储能的发展任务、技术经济水平及发展规模等维度提出新型储能的发展路径，为中国新型储能发展规划和产业持续发展提供决策参考。

关键词: 新型电力系统, 新型储能, 源网荷储协同规划, 需求潜力, 发展路径

Abstract: The construction of a new power system is crucial to achieving the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality. The flexible regulation ability of the system has become a key factor in building a new power system. The new energy storage has many advantages, and the technical economy is progressing rapidly, which will become an important support for improving the flexible adjustment ability of the system. The amount and the type of new energy storage and the way to develop new energy storage are the key research topics for the new power system to support the realization of carbon peak and carbon neutrality in the future. This paper attempts to combine the transformation path of China’s power system, the collaborative planning of flexible resources, the development of energy storage technology, and the characteristics of China’s power system. Based on the transformation path scenario, three new energy storage research schemes are proposed with full consideration of the uncertainties in the development process of coal power. The source-grid-load-storage expansion optimization model of the power system based on time series production simulation is adopted to fully describe the system characteristics of power supply, load, and grid interconnection of seven regional power grids, comprehensively consider the technical and economic characteristics of system flexible resources, and quantitatively analyze the demand potential of the seven regional power grids in China for various types of energy storage. The development path of new energy storage is proposed from the dimensions of the development task, technical and economic level, and development scale of new energy storage in terms of three stages of carbon peak, rapid emission reduction, and carbon neutrality, which provides decision-making reference for the development planning of new energy storage and the sustainable development of industry in China.

Key words: new power system, new energy storage, source-grid-load-storage collaborative planning, demand potential, development path

任大伟, 侯金鸣, 肖晋宇, 金晨, 吴佳玮. 支撑双碳目标的新型储能发展潜力及路径研究[J]. 中国电力, 2023, 56(8): 17-25.

REN Dawei, HOU Jinming, XIAO Jinyu, JIN Chen, WU Jiawei. Research on Development Potential and Path of New Energy Storage Supporting Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality[J]. Electric Power, 2023, 56(8): 17-25.

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链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202303034

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2023/V56/I8/17

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