中国电动汽车发展及车网互动对新型储能配置的影响

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202405058

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

电力系统新型储能发展预期高，但存在与其他灵活调节资源统筹考虑不足的问题。随着电动汽车持续快速发展，未来电动汽车车网互动必将影响新型储能需求，新型储能规划必须与电动汽车发展统筹考虑。通过分析影响电动汽车发展与车网互动调节能力的关键因素，研判中国电动汽车的发展规模，结合电动汽车用能习惯与电力系统调节需求，构建了中国电动汽车灵活性潜力研究模型，并从系统全局优化角度，评估车网互动灵活调节能力，分析了对中国及其7个区域新型储能配置的影响。

关键词: 新型储能, 电动汽车, 车网互动, 源网荷一体化规划, 随机动态模型

Abstract:

With the continuous and rapid development of electric vehicles, the positive interaction between electric vehicles and the power grid in the future will affect the new energy storage configuration of the power system. In view of the insufficient overall planning of the current new energy storage, resulting in high development expectations, this paper proposes that new energy storage and the development of electric vehicles must be considered as a whole, and pay attention to the replacement of vehicle-grid interaction for short-term new energy storage. The key factors affecting the development of electric vehicles and the adjustment ability of the vehicle-grid interaction are analyzed. Based on the development of electric vehicles in China, combined with the energy consumption habits of electric vehicles and the system adjustment demand, the interaction model of the electric vehicles and the system in China is constructed. The flexible adjustment ability of electric vehicles is evaluated, and the impact on the new energy storage configuration in China and its seven regions is analyzed.

Key words: new energy storage, electric vehicles, the vehicle-grid interaction, source-network-load integration planning, stochastic dynamic model

周原冰, 龚乃玮, 王皓界, 肖晋宇, 张赟. 中国电动汽车发展及车网互动对新型储能配置的影响[J]. 中国电力, 2024, 57(10): 1-11.

Yuanbing ZHOU, Naiwei GONG, Haojie WANG, Jinyu XIAO, Yun ZHANG. Study on the Influence of Electric Vehicle Development and the Vehicle-Grid Interaction on New Energy Storage Configuration in China[J]. Electric Power, 2024, 57(10): 1-11.

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链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202405058

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2024/V57/I10/1

图/表 13

图 1 电动汽车车网互动灵活性潜力研究框架

Fig.1 Research framework for the potential of flexibility of electric vehicle

图 2 GTEP子模型与电动汽车负荷子模型的交互迭代

Fig.2 Interactive iteration of GTEP sub–model and electric vehicle load sub–model

图 3 GTEP子模型框架

Fig.3 GTEP sub–model

图 4 考虑V2G调节惯性约束的调节策略

Fig.4 The V2G adjusting strategy with adjusting inertia constraint considered

图 5 电动汽车发展预测模型

Fig.5 Electric vehicle development potential evaluation algorithm

图 6 电动汽车规模预测

Fig.6 Forecasting of vehicle population

表 1 电动汽车分车型用能需求分析

Table 1 Energy demand analysis by vehicle type

种类	参数		全生命周期出行用能/ (万kW·h)	电池容量/ (kW·h)	出行循环次数
私家	年行驶里程/万km	0.8~2	2~7	100	1320
私家	百km耗电量/(kW·h)	15~22	2~7	100	1320
出租	年行驶里程/万km	6~9	14~34	100	6800
出租	百km耗电量/(kW·h)	15~25	14~34	100	6800
公交	年行驶里程/万km	3.2~4.5	43~88	300	5867
公交	百km耗电量/(kW·h)	90~130	43~88	300	5867
长途客运	年行驶里程/万km	1.5~4	18~96	540	3556
长途客运	百km耗电量/(kW·h)	80~160	18~96	540	3556
小型货车	年行驶里程/万km	2~4	8~36	600	1200
小型货车	百km耗电量/(kW·h)	25~60	8~36	600	1200

图 7 V2G意愿度分析

Fig.7 V2G willingness analysis

图 8 2050年1月典型日电动汽车负荷曲线和系统净负荷曲线

Fig.8 Electric vehicles load characteristics and net load characteristics in January Typical day in 2050

图 9 2050年典型周电动汽车负荷曲线和系统净负荷曲线

Fig.9 Electric vehicles load characteristics and net load characteristics in typical week in 2050

表 2 2050年车网互动参数设置

Table 2 Electric Vehicle network interactive scene settings

私家车保有量/ 亿辆		参与意愿度/%		续航里程/km		慢充占比/%		单次在网时长/h		最大放电深度/%		日均接网频次		慢充功率/ kW
2.8		40~80		600~1200		80		6~11		30~50		0.5~2.0		10~30

图 10 充电功率对车网互动削峰填谷效果的敏感性分析

Fig.10 Sensitivity analysis of charging power to interactive peak clipping and valley filling effect of vehicle network

表 3 车网互动削峰填谷各区域效果

Table 3 V2G Peak shaving and valley filling effects in various regions

参数		东北	华南	华北	西北	华东	华中	西南
调节前	最大净负荷/万kW	12430	45268	48131	31472	54997	33657	17445
	最小净负荷/万kW	–27478	–3020	–91415	–100501	–30606	–15835	–79
	电动汽车最大负荷/万kW	3502	7073	8976	2832	20064	7192	6258
	电动汽车最小负荷/万kW	231	364	660	47	1119	389	384
调节后	最大净负荷/万kW	11060	37159	45141	29117	52171	33132	14784
	最小净负荷/万kW	–25725	–43	–84750	–98294	–17426	–10699	2696
	电动汽车最大负荷/万kW	7139	13809	18041	6829	32914	11609	7712
	电动汽车最小负荷/万kW	–4293	–7752	–8800	–5229	–9178	–3203	–924
净负荷最大值削减量/万kW		1370	8109	2990	2355	2826	525	2661
净负荷最大值削减量占净负荷最大峰谷差比重/%		3.4	16.8	2.1	1.8	3.3	1.1	15.2
净负荷最小值提升量/万kW		1753	2977	6665	2207	13180	5136	2775
净负荷最小值提升量占净负荷最大峰谷差比重/%		4.4	6.2	4.8	1.7	15.4	10.4	15.8

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