基于风险抑制理论的电网弹性运行方法

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202307045

中国电力 ›› 2023, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (12): 127-137.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202307045

• 电力系统弹性提升关键技术 • 上一篇下一篇

基于风险抑制理论的电网弹性运行方法

王曦悦¹(), 张浩¹(), 彭超逸²()

1. 中国能源建设集团广东省电力设计研究院有限公司，广东广州　510663
2. 中国南方电网电力调度控制中心，广东广州　510670

收稿日期:2023-07-12 接受日期:2023-09-06 出版日期:2023-12-28 发布日期:2023-12-28
作者简介:王曦悦（1991—），女，硕士，工程师，从事电力系统数字化等研究，E-mail： wangxiyue@gedi.com.cn
张浩（1983—），男，高级工程师，从事电网智能化及数字化技术研究，E-mail： zhanghao@gedi.com.cn
彭超逸（1990—），男，通信作者，博士，高级工程师，从事电力系统数字化等研究，E-mail： pengcy@csg.cn
基金资助:
中国南方电网有限公司科技项目（基于云边融合的智能调度运行平台理论、框架、标准体系及平台关键技术研究，000000KK52200035）；中国能源建设集团广东省电力设计研究院项目（数字孪生技术在智能电网的应用研究，EV06421W）。

Risk Limiting Based Resilient Operation Method for Power Grid

Xiyue WANG¹(), Hao ZHANG¹(), Chaoyi PENG²()

1. China Energy Engineering Group Guangdong Electric Power Design Institute Co., Ltd., Guangzhou 510663, China
2. Power Dispatch and Control Center, China Southern Power Grid, Guangzhou 510670, China

Received:2023-07-12 Accepted:2023-09-06 Online:2023-12-28 Published:2023-12-28
Supported by:
This work is supported by Science and Technology Project of CSG (Research on the Theory, Framework, Standard System, and Key Technologies of an Intelligent Scheduling and Operation Platform Based on Cloud-Edge Integration, No.000000KK52200035) and China Energy Engineering Group Guangdong Electric Power Design Institute Co., Ltd. (Application Research of Digital Twin Technology in Smart Grids, No.EV06421W).

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

新型电力系统建设背景下，海量新能源并网对现有电网调度运行模式带来巨大挑战。为解决新能源功率波动性和不确定性对电网实时功率平衡带来的失负荷风险，基于风险抑制理论提出电网弹性运行模型（risk limiting based resilient operation，RLB），并针对求解概率型约束的难题给出解决方案，提升电网运行弹性。通过推导RLB的3种中间态模型及其解析解，提出基于中间态模型迭代的RLB求解算法，并对其全局最优性给出严格证明。基于IEEE 6节点和25981节点实际区域电网算例，分析了系统灵活性、预测精度和系统弹性之间的关系，指出提升新型电力系统运行弹性的前提是足够的系统灵活性和预测精度。

关键词: 新型电力系统, 风险抑制, 不确定性, 概率约束, 弹性运行

Abstract:

Under the background of construction of the new power system, the integration of a large amount of renewable energy into the existing grid poses significant challenges to the dispatch and operation mode of power grid. In order to address the risk of load shedding caused by the power fluctuation and uncertainty of renewable energy on real-time power balance in the grid, we propose a resilient operation model for the grid based on risk limiting theory (RLB). To solve the problem of solving probabilistic constraints, a solution is provided to enhance the operational resilience of the grid. By deriving three intermediate state models of RLB and their analytical solutions, we present an iterative RLB solution algorithm based on intermediate state models and provide a rigorous proof of its global optimality. Finally, based on the IEEE 6-node system and an actual 25981-node regional grid examples, we analyze the relationship between system flexibility, prediction accuracy, and system resilience, and it is concluded that improving the operational resilience of the new power system is premised on sufficient system flexibility and prediction accuracy.

Key words: new power system, risk limiting, uncertainty, probability constraint, resilient operation

王曦悦, 张浩, 彭超逸. 基于风险抑制理论的电网弹性运行方法[J]. 中国电力, 2023, 56(12): 127-137.

Xiyue WANG, Hao ZHANG, Chaoyi PENG. Risk Limiting Based Resilient Operation Method for Power Grid[J]. Electric Power, 2023, 56(12): 127-137.

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链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202307045

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2023/V56/I12/127

图/表 17

图 1 风险抑制运行理论基本框架

Fig.1 Risk limiting operation framework

图 2 RLB决策流程

Fig.2 Decision process of RLB

图 3 中间态模型转化

Fig.3 Transition of intermediate state model

图 4 IEEE 6节点系统拓扑

Fig.4 IEEE 6-bus system

表 1 发电机数据

Table 1 Generator data

发电机	$\underline P $ /MW	$\overline P $ /MW	第一阶段/ (元·MW^–1)	第二阶段/ (元·MW^–1)
1	50	200	30	32
2	50	220	27	31
3	60	180	25	29

表 2 负荷数据

Table 2 Load data

负荷	$\underline D $ /MW	$\overline D $ /MW	第一阶段/ (元·MW^–1)	第二阶段/ (元·MW^–1)
1	100	300	980	1200
2	0	230	1020	1200
3	0	200	870	900

图 5 场景1风电功率预测

Fig.5 Wind power prediction in scenario 1

图 6 场景2风电功率预测

Fig.6 Wind power prediction in scenario 2

图 7 场景1发电机、负荷功率情况

Fig.7 Generation and load in scenario 1

图 8 场景2发电机、负荷功率情况

Fig.8 Generation and load in scenario 2

图 9 2种场景的系统运行费用比较

Fig.9 Comparison of system operating cost in scenario 1 and 2

图 10 区域电网网架

Fig.10 Topology of regional power grid

表 3 各省区电网装机容量

Table 3 Installed capacity in each province 单位：MW

省区	燃煤	燃气	风电	光伏	合计
A	12979	3416	25145	9603	51155
B	8786	1998	17108	6844	35018
C	16287	540	8805	12986	38633
D	50020	3476	17521	19962	90996
E	44631	571.53	14905	28177	88607
F	15684	551	—	—	16238
合计	151726	10178	83715	78500	162279

图 11 给定灵活性时风渗透率与预测精度之间的关系

Fig.11 Relationship between wind penetration rate and forecast accuracy under fixed flexibility

图 12 场景1中的弃风情况

Fig.12 Wind curtailment in scenario 1

图 13 给定预测精度时风渗透率与灵活性之间的关系

Fig.13 Relationship between wind penetration rate and flexibility under fixed forecast accuracy

图 14 给定渗透率时灵活性与预测精度之间的关系

Fig.14 Relationship between flexibility and forecast accuracy under fixed wind penetration

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基于风险抑制理论的电网弹性运行方法

Risk Limiting Based Resilient Operation Method for Power Grid

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基于风险抑制理论的电网弹性运行方法

Risk Limiting Based Resilient Operation Method for Power Grid

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