新型电力系统供需协同全要素理论框架

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202503094

中国电力 ›› 2025, Vol. 58 ›› Issue (10): 147-162.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202503094

新型电力系统供需协同全要素理论框架

邱忠涛¹(), 格根敖其²(), 贾跃龙³(), 吴鹏³(), 张凯²(), 孙毅²(), 朱进⁴()

1. 国家电网有限公司，北京　100031
2. 华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院，北京　102206
3. 国网能源研究院有限公司，北京　102209
4. 国网江苏省电力有限公司，江苏南京　210024

收稿日期:2025-03-26 发布日期:2025-10-23 出版日期:2025-10-28
作者简介:
邱忠涛（1975），男，博士研究生，高级工程师（教授级），从事新型电力系统与能源互联网体制机制研究，E-mail：qzt@sohu.com
格根敖其（2000），男，通信作者，博士研究生，从事低碳需求响应、电力供需研究，E-mail：gegenaoqi@163.com
贾跃龙（1988），男，博士，高级工程师，从事需求侧管理及电力供需研究，E-mail：jiayuelong@sgeri.sgcc.com.cn
吴鹏（1978），男，硕士，正高级工程师，从事需求侧管理及电力供需研究，E-mail：wupeng@sgeri.sgcc.com.cn
张凯（2000），男，博士研究生，从事电力算力协同管理、数据中心优化控制等研究，E-mail：kaizhang0537@163.com
孙毅（1972），男，博士，教授，从事能源互联网信息通信技术、电力需求侧管理等研究，E-mail：sy@ncepu.edu.cn
朱进（1981），男，博士，正高级工程师，从事管理科学与工程等研究，E-mail：932707581@qq.com
基金资助:
国家电网有限公司科技项目（1400-202457291A-1-1-ZN）。

All-Factor Theoretical Framework for Supply-Demand Synergy in New-Type Power Systems

QIU Zhongtao¹(), GEGEN Aoqi²(), JIA Yuelong³(), WU Peng³(), ZHANG Kai²(), SUN Yi²(), ZHU Jin⁴()

1. State Grid Corporation of China, Beijing 100031, China
2. School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
3. State Grid Energy Research Institute Co., Ltd., Beijing 102209, China
4. State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Co., Ltd., Nanjing 210024, China

Received:2025-03-26 Online:2025-10-23 Published:2025-10-28
Supported by:
This work is supported by Science and Technology Project of SGCC (No.1400-202457291A-1-1-ZN).

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

构建以新能源为主体的新型电力系统，是实现“双碳”战略目标的关键路径。“十四五”以来，中国电力系统在电源结构、电网形态和技术基础等方面正经历深刻变革，提升新形势下电力供需协同能力迫在眉睫。面向新型电力系统，定义供需协同的基本概念与内涵并系统梳理亟须提升供需协同能力的典型场景；分别从政策、市场、技术等方面，深入剖析影响供需协同的全要素影响因素与内在作用机理；从空间、时间、资源、形态等多重视角深入解构与认知，创新性构建全要素供需协同理论框架模型，旨在为新型电力系统的创新升级提供坚实的理论支撑，助力其高质量发展蓝图的有效绘制。

关键词: 双碳目标, 新能源, 供需协同, 全要素, 新型电力系统

Abstract:

Building a new-type power system dominated by new energy sources is a critical pathway towards achieving China's "Dual Carbon" strategic goals. Since the inception of the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's power system has undergone profound transformations in its generation mix, grid configuration, and technological foundation, making the enhancement of power supply-demand synergy capability under these new circumstances an urgent imperative. Focusing on the new-type power system, this study firstly defines the fundamental concept and connotation of the supply-demand synergy and systematically identifies the critical scenarios that require enhanced synergy. Then, the study conducts an in-depth analysis of all the factors influencing supply-demand synergy and their underlying mechanisms from perspective such as policy, market, technology, etc. Finally, on the basis of an in-depth deconstruction from multiple perspectives such as space, time, resource, and form, this study innovatively constructs a theoretical framework model for the synergy of supply-demand across all factor to provide a solid theoretical foundation for the innovative upgrading of the new-type power system, and to contribute to the effective planning of its high-quality development blueprintt.

Key words: carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality, renewable energy, supply-demand synergy, all-factor, new-type power system

邱忠涛, 格根敖其, 贾跃龙, 吴鹏, 张凯, 孙毅, 朱进. 新型电力系统供需协同全要素理论框架[J]. 中国电力, 2025, 58(10): 147-162.

QIU Zhongtao, GEGEN Aoqi, JIA Yuelong, WU Peng, ZHANG Kai, SUN Yi, ZHU Jin. All-Factor Theoretical Framework for Supply-Demand Synergy in New-Type Power Systems[J]. Electric Power, 2025, 58(10): 147-162.

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链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202503094

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图/表 12

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研究领域	代表性研究	主要研究内容	研究方法	核心问题	关键结论
供需协同理论	文献 [10-12]	区域供需系统结构	系统动力学	评估电力供需系统发展状态	总体波动稳定，区域差异较大
		供需协同约束下新能源消纳能力	综述分析	构建新能源消纳能力评估的总体研究框架	从电力供需平衡、安全稳定约束和电能质量3个角度评估新能源消纳能力
		供需双侧协同耦合发展内涵	综述分析	供需双侧的减碳目标与行动步伐匹配程度	提出低碳约束条件下能源供需双侧协同发展的路径方案
供需协同认知	文献 [13-15]	供需双侧协同规划	有功-无功联合优化	灵活性资源双层优化配置方法	有效提升配电网运行灵活性和稳定性
供需协同认知	文献 [13-15]	灵活性供需平衡	建模与模拟计算	灵活性供需平衡评价、灵活性供需平衡模拟计算、兼顾不同天气过程的模拟场景构建	协调各类差异化资源高效经济地匹配系统灵活性供给和需求是关键
供需协同模式	文献 [16-21]	供需协同调度模型	主从博弈	决策新能源出力最恶劣概率分布下的最优日前调度方案	同时协同优化电价政策和负荷曲线
		微电网博弈模型		平衡电网的经济效益和物理稳定	提出分布式算法与基于共享备用电力的方案
		综合需求响应优化策略		用户参与综合需求响应不确定性与疲劳性	优化综合能源服务商成本与用户效益
		孤岛运行供需平衡		孤岛微网下供需双侧能源管理	提高能源管理效率
		多时段耦合实施激励		用户和微网运营商双方利益兼顾	实现引导用户参与并优化资源配置
供需协同全要素分析视角	文献 [22-25]	供-需双侧的灵活性资源、智能电网信息化自动化互动化、电力系统与新能源协调发展	综述分析建立指标评估体系	对各灵活性资源与电力系统各要素进行定量综合评价	新型电力系统供需双侧受到各类要素直接或间接影响
供需协同全要素分析方法	文献 [26-31]	Pearson 相关系数、灰色关联度、XGBoost机器学习	构建影响因素指标体系	探究影响因素并进行预测	通过统计学习数据挖掘方法进行分析
		相关性分析法、显著性检验法	建立神经网络预测模型	预测模型影响因素输入筛选	显著性水平作为输入提高预测可信度
		解释结构模型	建立意识模型并构建矩阵	低碳环境下电力需求影响因素筛选	基于经验和知识分析对电力需求的影响因素进行定量分析

研究领域	代表性研究	主要研究内容	研究方法	核心问题	关键结论
供需协同理论	文献 [10-12]	区域供需系统结构	系统动力学	评估电力供需系统发展状态	总体波动稳定，区域差异较大
		供需协同约束下新能源消纳能力	综述分析	构建新能源消纳能力评估的总体研究框架	从电力供需平衡、安全稳定约束和电能质量3个角度评估新能源消纳能力
		供需双侧协同耦合发展内涵	综述分析	供需双侧的减碳目标与行动步伐匹配程度	提出低碳约束条件下能源供需双侧协同发展的路径方案
供需协同认知	文献 [13-15]	供需双侧协同规划	有功-无功联合优化	灵活性资源双层优化配置方法	有效提升配电网运行灵活性和稳定性
供需协同认知	文献 [13-15]	灵活性供需平衡	建模与模拟计算	灵活性供需平衡评价、灵活性供需平衡模拟计算、兼顾不同天气过程的模拟场景构建	协调各类差异化资源高效经济地匹配系统灵活性供给和需求是关键
供需协同模式	文献 [16-21]	供需协同调度模型	主从博弈	决策新能源出力最恶劣概率分布下的最优日前调度方案	同时协同优化电价政策和负荷曲线
		微电网博弈模型		平衡电网的经济效益和物理稳定	提出分布式算法与基于共享备用电力的方案
		综合需求响应优化策略		用户参与综合需求响应不确定性与疲劳性	优化综合能源服务商成本与用户效益
		孤岛运行供需平衡		孤岛微网下供需双侧能源管理	提高能源管理效率
		多时段耦合实施激励		用户和微网运营商双方利益兼顾	实现引导用户参与并优化资源配置
供需协同全要素分析视角	文献 [22-25]	供-需双侧的灵活性资源、智能电网信息化自动化互动化、电力系统与新能源协调发展	综述分析建立指标评估体系	对各灵活性资源与电力系统各要素进行定量综合评价	新型电力系统供需双侧受到各类要素直接或间接影响
供需协同全要素分析方法	文献 [26-31]	Pearson 相关系数、灰色关联度、XGBoost机器学习	构建影响因素指标体系	探究影响因素并进行预测	通过统计学习数据挖掘方法进行分析
		相关性分析法、显著性检验法	建立神经网络预测模型	预测模型影响因素输入筛选	显著性水平作为输入提高预测可信度
		解释结构模型	建立意识模型并构建矩阵	低碳环境下电力需求影响因素筛选	基于经验和知识分析对电力需求的影响因素进行定量分析

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新型电力系统供需协同全要素理论框架

All-Factor Theoretical Framework for Supply-Demand Synergy in New-Type Power Systems

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新型电力系统供需协同全要素理论框架

All-Factor Theoretical Framework for Supply-Demand Synergy in New-Type Power Systems

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