Abstract:

The 15th Five-Year Plan period is a critical stage for consolidating the foundation and advancing in an all-round way in the process of China basically realizing socialist modernization. The external environment is intricate and complex, with an increasing number of disturbing factors, and the power supply and demand will still face a series of risks and challenges. Taking into comprehensive consideration the influencing factors such as economic situation, key industries, meteorological factors and primary energy, this paper conducts an analysis and forecast of the national power demand and supply in 2026 and the 15th Five-Year Plan period, makes an assessment of the national power supply and demand situation, and puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for ensuring the balance between power supply and demand. The research shows that supported by factors such as steady economic growth and accelerated construction of a modern industrial system, the national social electricity consumption will maintain rapid growth during the 15th Five-Year Plan period; driven by the "dual carbon" goals, the proportion of newly installed renewable energy capacity will keep rising, and the power source structure will continue to shift toward cleanliness and low carbonization. The overall power supply and demand situation will be characterized by "loose in the early stage and tight in the later stage". It is necessary to promote the commissioning of guaranteed and supportive power sources, guide renewable energy to play a supporting role in power supply guarantee, strengthen inter-provincial and cross-regional mutual assistance and support, and tap the potential of demand-side regulation, so as to ensure the balance of power supply and demand during the 15th Five-Year Plan period.

Key words: power demand, power supply, power supply-demand situation, 15th Five-Year Plan