Analysis of China’s Power Demand Situation in the Last Three Years of the “14th Five-Year Plan” Under the New Situation

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202302048

Abstract

Abstract: The new situation, such as the construction of the Chinese modernization, implementation of the “double carbon” strategy, construction of the new power system, and promotion of power market-oriented reform, will profoundly affect future power demand situation in China. With full consideration of the changing trend of macroeconomics, technological progress, energy transformation, power market, climate and temperature and other factors affecting power demand under the new situation, the medium and long-term power demand forecasting model coupled with “economy-energy-electricity-environment” is adopted to analyze the growth trend of the China’s power demand in the last three years of the “14th Five-Year Plan” (2021-2025) under three scenarios. The results show that in 2023, 2024 and 2025, China’s total social electricity consumption will be 9.1 to 9.3 trillion, 9.4 to 9.7 trillion and 9.7 to 10.1 trillion kilowatt-hours respectively, with an annual growth rate of 5.2% to 6.0% in the “14th Five-Year Plan”.

Key words: new situation, 14th Five-Year Plan, power demand, forecast

SHAN Baoguo, LIU Qing, ZHANG Lili, ZHENG Haifeng, ZHANG Chenglong, WU Shanshan, XUE Wanlei. Analysis of China’s Power Demand Situation in the Last Three Years of the “14th Five-Year Plan” Under the New Situation[J]. Electric Power, 2023, 56(3): 1-11.

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URL: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202302048

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/Y2023/V56/I3/1

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